比安科:中央银行是2020年经济的最大风险

2020年1月4日10:15:53比安科:中央银行是2020年经济的最大风险已关闭评论 4815743字阅读19分8秒
摘要

一个经济体的自然趋势是增长。经济衰退只有在某些东西”崩溃”时才会发生——因此,这个记录扩张的发生是因为没有任何东西被打破。主要原因是新技术使企业能够更灵活地适应不断变化的环境。

The Fed's reaction to the disruption in repo markets shows how hard it will be for policy makers to reverse their'money printing'...

美联储对回购市场混乱的反应表明,政策制定者要逆转他们的"印钞"是多么困难.....

比安科:中央银行是2020年经济的最大风险

The U.S.economic recovery that began in June 2009 is now in its 127th month,which is a record.Even more impressive is that for the first time since the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776,the U.S.just completed the first calendar decade without even one day of a recession.There are a few key reasons why this is happening,and one clear risk that could bring the expansion to an end.

20096月开始的美国经济复苏现在已经进入了创纪录的第127个月。更令人印象深刻的是,自1776年美国美国独立宣言协会签署以来,美国第一次在没有经济衰退的情况下完成了第一个十年。发生这种情况有几个关键原因,还有一个明显的风险,可能会结束这种扩张。

The natural trend for an economy is to grow.A recession only occurs when something"breaks."So,this record expansion is happening because nothing has broken.The primary reason is new technology that gives businesses more flexibility to adapt to changing conditions.

一个经济体的自然趋势是增长。经济衰退只有在某些东西"崩溃"时才会发生——因此,这个记录扩张的发生是因为没有任何东西被打破。主要原因是新技术使企业能够更灵活地适应不断变化的环境。

Technology is also preventing faster inflation in the developed world,a major cause of recessions in the past.Pricing has become hyper-competitive(think of the"Amazon effect")and the internet allows for product substitution at lighting speed.Unhappy with a Chinese supplier?A quick Google search or a Skype call will quickly help you find a Vietnam substitute at virtually no cost.

技术也阻止了发达国家更快的通货膨胀,而通货膨胀是过去经济衰退的主要原因。定价已经变得极具竞争力(想想"亚马逊效应"),互联网允许以照明速度替代产品。对中国供应商不满意?一个快速的谷歌搜索或者一个 Skype 电话将会帮助你在几乎没有成本的情况下快速的找到一个越南的替代品。

Breaking things,in the literal sense,is also at an all-time low.Major powers have been at war with each almost continuously for over 500 years.But starting in 2000,they have stopped fighting in an unprecedented period of peace in human history.

打破东西,从字面意义上讲,也处于历史最低点。大国之间的战争已经持续了500多年。但是从2000年开始,他们在人类历史上前所未有的和平时期停止了战斗。

Another leading cause for breaking an economy has been rapidly rising energy prices.Crude oil at$147 a barrel was concurrent with the Great Recession in 2008.But this is changing.Abundant energy supplies due to new fracking technologies are reducing the threat of a supply shock.Bloomberg News reported that November was the first month in 70 years that the U.S.was a net petroleum exporter.

导致经济崩溃的另一个主要原因是能源价格的迅速上涨。原油价格为每桶147美元,与2008年的大衰退同时发生。但这种情况正在改变。由于采用了新的水力压裂技术,丰富的能源供应正在减少供应冲击的威胁。彭博新闻社报道,11月是70年来美国第一个石油净出口月。

And note the muted response in energy markets to the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq in September.Forecasts that the attack would cause oil prices to spike to$100 were not entirely unfounded,as that would have happened in the past,when supplies were not nearly as flexible.Instead,Brent crude is holding below$70 a barrel.

还要注意到,能源市场对9月份无人机袭击沙特在艾卜盖格的石油设施一事反应冷淡。有关此次袭击将导致油价飙升至每桶100美元的预测并非完全没有根据,因为在过去,供应几乎没有那么灵活,这种情况就会发生。相反,布伦特原油价格保持在每桶70美元以下。

All of these are powerful,but standard,reasons for why the economy is stable.There is,however,an unconventional source of strength that emerged in the last decade that also doubles as its biggest risk:central banks.As of November,the collective balance-sheet assets of the Federal Reserve,European Central Bank,Bank of Japan and Bank of England stood at 35.9%of their countries'total gross domestic product,up from about 10%in 2008,according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

所有这些都是经济稳定的有力而标准的原因。然而,过去10年出现的一种非常规力量源泉,也是其最大风险的一倍:中央银行。根据彭博社采集的数据,截至去年11月,美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行和英国央行的资产负债表资产总额占各自国内生产总值(gdp)35.9%,高于2008年的约10%

Printing Press

印刷机

The Fed,ECB,BOJ and BOE have pumped trillions of dollars into the global financial system in recent years

近年来,美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行和英国央行向全球金融体系注入了数万亿美元

比安科:中央银行是2020年经济的最大风险

Source:Bloomberg

来源:彭博社

At the same time,the latest World Bank data show that developed country GDP expanded to$54.2 trillion at the end of 2018 from$46.1 trillion a decade earlier.Restated,central bank balance sheets grew at faster rate,by$9.9 trillion,than their underlying economies,which have expanded by$8.1 trillion,which is a big reversal from the 2001 to 2006 period.

与此同时,世界银行的最新数据显示,发达国家的国内生产总值从十年前的46.1万亿美元增长到2018年底的54.2万亿美元。重申一下,中央银行的资产负债表增长速度更快,达到了9.9万亿美元,比它们的基础经济增长了8.1万亿美元,这是2001年至2006年期间的一个大逆转。

Not Keeping Up

没有跟上

Major economies haven't grown as fast as central bank balance sheets

主要经济体的增长速度没有央行的资产负债表快

比安科:中央银行是2020年经济的最大风险

Source:Bloomberg,World Bank(55K=$55 trillion)

资料来源:彭博社,世界银行(55000亿美元)

It's hard quantify just how much of this combined"money printing"by central banks contributed to GDP growth,but most would agree that it ranges anywhere from"some"to"much."

很难量化中央银行的"印钞" GDP 增长的贡献程度,但大多数人都同意,其贡献程度从"一些""很多"不等

So,what happens when central banks pull back from this stimulus?When the Federal Reserve hinted in late 2018 that they were going to increase interest rates several more times in 2019,and the balance sheet reduction was on"automatic pilot,"the S&P 500 Index plunged almost 20%and recession fears became prevalent.

那么,当中央银行撤出刺激计划时会发生什么呢?当美联储在2018年末暗示他们将在2019年多次提高利率,并且资产负债表缩减是"自动试点"时,标准普尔500指数暴跌了近20%,对衰退的担忧变得普遍起来。

And when the Fed partly reversed its stance in early 2019,suggesting it wouldn't increase rates,recession fears receded and stocks soared to post one of their best years ever in terms of returns.

当美联储在2019年初部分改变立场,暗示不会提高利率时,衰退的担忧消退了,股市飙升,创下了回报率有史以来的最好年景。

But the Fed kept shrinking its balance sheet,and by September the repo market ran into trouble.The central bank was forced to reverse here,too,and has boosted its assets by more than$400 billion,a move that coincided with the strong fourth-quarter rally in riskier assets such as equities.The takeaway here is that it will be extremely hard for central banks to reverse"money printing."

但美联储不断收缩其资产负债表,到9月份,回购市场陷入困境。美联储在这方面也被迫倒退,并增加了逾4,000亿美元的资产,与此同时,股票等风险较高的资产在第四季度强劲反弹。这里的意义在于,中央银行要逆转"印钞"的趋势将极其困难

With inflation doormat,though,there is no need for central banks to start tightening monetary policies anytime soon and"break"the economy.But should policy makers get their wish and some inflation returns,then it would be time to worry.

不过,随着通货膨胀的出现,各国央行没有必要在短期内开始收紧货币政策,从而"摧毁"经济。但是,如果政策制定者的愿望得以实现,并且通胀有所回升,那么现在就该担心了。

Central bankers try to operate under the Hippocratic Oath:"First,do no harm."We will not know if they have caused any harm until they reverse their unprecedented balance sheet expansion without incident.The Fed's recent experience is not encouraging.

央行行长们试图在希波克拉底誓词下运作:"首先,不要伤害。"我们不知道他们是否造成了任何伤害,直到他们扭转其前所未有的资产负债表扩张没有发生意外。美联储最近的经历并不令人鼓舞。

来源:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bianco-central-banks-are-biggest-risk-economy-2020

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  • 本文由 发表于 2020年1月4日10:15:53
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