By 作者Nikolay Atanasova
A new era of space weather is about to rock our world—and it’s probably going to destroy many satellites in the next five years, according to solar storms expert Tzu-Wei Fang, a space scientist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)空间天气预报中心(SWPC)的空间科学家、太阳风暴专家方(Tzu-Wei Fang)表示，一个新的太空天气时代即将撼动我们的世界，并可能在未来五年内摧毁许多卫星。
“Whatever you’ve experienced in the past two years doesn’t matter,” Fang told crowds on Monday (August 8) at the 36th Small Satellite Conference in Logan, Utah.
“无论你在过去两年经历了什么，都没有关系,”方星期一(8月8日)在犹他州洛根市举行的第36届小型卫星会议上对人群说。
“Whatever you learned the past two years is not going to apply in the next five years,” he added.
他补充说: “过去两年学到的东西，在未来五年都不会适用。”。
A surprise geomagnetic storm hit Earth on Sunday, while another is forecast to reach us today. https://t.co/dfJHZSn9Gd
星期天，一场意外的磁暴袭击了地球，而另一场预计将于今天到达我们的 https://t.co/dfjhzsn9gd
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) August 8, 2022
ー《新闻周刊》(@Newsweek)2022年8月8日
A new solar activity cycle is much stronger than anticipated and it’s already presenting major problems for satellite operators who are trying to keep their spacecraft in orbit while maintaining functionality.
一个新的太阳活动周期比预期的要强得多，它已经给卫星运营商提出了主要问题，这些运营商试图在保持航天器在轨运行的同时保持其功能。
Solar storms can destroy satellites with ease.
太阳风暴可以轻易摧毁卫星。
An increase in solar activity will risk damaging or disrupting spacecraft. Credit: NASA
太阳活动的增加将有损坏或扰乱航天器的风险
During a panel discussion organized by the Secure World Foundation this week, Fang warned the audience that the February solar storm, which was responsible for the destruction of dozens of newly launched SpaceX Starlink satellites, was only the tip of the iceberg.
在安全世界基金会(Secure World Foundation)本周组织的一次小组讨论中，方舟子警告听众，2月份的太阳风暴只是冰山一角，它摧毁了数十颗新发射的 SpaceX Starlink 卫星。
“That storm was actually a minor storm in our catalog,” she said. “It’s not a huge storm.”
“那场风暴实际上只是我们目录中的一场小风暴,”她说，“不是很大的风暴。”
One effect of the increased space weather activity the world will experience during this new solar cycle is an increased amount of drag on satellites as huge solar storms heat and expand the upper atmosphere, increasing its density.
在这个新的太阳活动周期中，全世界将经历更多的空间气象活动，其中一个影响是，随着巨大的太阳风暴加热和扩大高层大气，增加其密度，将增加对卫星的阻力。
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This was demonstrated in February when a solar storm caused 38 of 49 newly launched SpaceX Starlink satellites to reenter the atmosphere. The spacecrafts’ thrusters were unable to overcome the increased atmospheric drag generated by the solar storm, therefore the satellites fell back into the atmosphere and were destroyed.
今年2月，一场太阳风暴导致49颗新发射的 SpaceX Starlink 卫星中的38颗重返大气层，就证明了这一点。航天器的推进器无法克服太阳风暴产生的大气阻力，因此卫星落回大气层并被摧毁。
The SWPC has been collaborating with SpaceX in order to investigate the aforementioned occurrence and determine, among other things, how models of space weather can more accurately predict atmospheric circumstances and solar storms that can destroy satellites.
SWPC 一直在与 SpaceX 公司合作，以调查上述情况，并确定空间天气模型如何能够更准确地预测可摧毁卫星的大气环境和太阳风暴。
In the near future an article that provides a summary of those findings will be published in a journal.
在不久的将来，一篇对这些发现进行总结的文章将会发表在一本杂志上。
Aurora is the beautiful result of space weather. But powerful space weather events, like solar storms, could affect our power grid. Here's how scientists are working to make sure that doesn't happen. pic.twitter.com/89fvKO1ciI
极光是太空天气的美丽结果。但是强大的太空天气事件，比如太阳风暴，可能会影响我们的电网。下面是科学家们如何努力确保这种情况不会发生的。Pic.twitter.com/89fvko1cii
— NOVA | PBS (@novapbs) August 6, 2022
ー NOVA | PBS (@novapbs) August 6,2022新星 | PBS (@novapbs)2022年8月6日
This new solar storm cycle—called Solar Cycle25 by space scientists—follows an 11-year period that was relatively calm. During that time, many more satellites were launched than ever before.
这个新的太阳风暴周期 25 太阳活动周期，在此之前的11年间，空间科学家们相对平静发射的卫星比以往任何时候都多。
According to space scientists like Fang, this kind of data coordination between SpaceX and SWPC is extremely important because most existing satellite technicians are likely not ready for the huge solar storms that are coming.
根据像 Fang 这样的空间科学家的说法，SpaceX 和 SWPC 之间的这种数据协调非常重要，因为大多数现有的卫星技术人员可能还没有为即将到来的巨大太阳风暴做好准备。
Intensifying Solar Storms a Mounting Headache for Unprepared Satellite Operators https://t.co/AfaaIljPf6 pic.twitter.com/HNZnMy3WI5
加剧太阳风暴对于毫无准备的卫星 https://t.co/afaailjpf6 pic.twitter.com/hnznmy3wi5来说越来越头疼
— Gizmodo (@Gizmodo) August 12, 2022
Gizmodo (@Gizmodo)2022年8月12日
Satellite operators cannot simply ignore the consequences of solar storms.
卫星运营商不能简单地忽视太阳风暴的后果。
“It’s very important that we all be aware of the impact of the space environment, how your satellite is going to mitigate this radiation environment and how you’re going to mitigate the drag effects,” she said.
她说: “我们都必须意识到太空环境的影响，你的卫星将如何减轻这种辐射环境，以及你将如何减轻阻力效应，这一点非常重要。”。
To make matters worse, the strength of Solar Cycle 25 is already moving in a direction that is significantly stronger than what was anticipated—and it won’t be peaking until around the middle of this decade.
更糟糕的是，第25太阳活动周期的强度已经在朝着一个比预期强得多的方向发展，而且要到2015年左右才会达到顶峰。
A strong enough solar storm is even capable of destroying the internet and smartphones.
一场足够强大的太阳风暴甚至能够摧毁互联网和智能手机。
“If you look at the beginning of this year, things are very crazy. We’ve had a solar flare almost every week,” Fang warned. Because Solar Cycle 25 is trending higher than predicted, there is an increased chance for more huge solar storms over the next several years.
“如果你回顾一下今年年初的情况，就会发现情况非常疯狂。我们几乎每周都有太阳耀斑。”。由于太阳活动周期25的趋势高于预测，在未来几年内出现更大规模太阳风暴的可能性增加。
“We’re already way beyond where we predicted at this point,” he warned.
他警告说: “我们现在已经远远超出了我们的预测。”。
来源：https://www.activistpost.com/2022/08/incoming-huge-solar-storms-could-destroy-many-satellites-u-s-govt-scientist-warns.html
