一家拥有49万亿美元衍生品风险敞口的银行正在我们眼前消失

2019年7月22日16:16:39新闻一家拥有49万亿美元衍生品风险敞口的银行正在我们眼前消失已关闭评论1.3K15字数 6552阅读21分50秒阅读模式
摘要

德意志银行是欧洲最重要的银行,拥有49万亿美元的衍生品敞口,美国大多数”大到不能倒”的大银行都与该银行有着非常深厚的金融联系。换句话说,全球金融体系根本承受不起德意志银行的破产,而现在它正在我们眼前逐渐崩溃。

Could it be possible that we are on the verge of the next"Lehman Brothers moment"?

有没有可能我们正处在下一个"雷曼兄弟时刻"的边缘?

一家拥有49万亿美元衍生品风险敞口的银行正在我们眼前消失

Deutsche Bank is the most important bank in all of Europe,it has 49 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives,and most of the largest"too big to fail banks"in the United States have very deep financial connections to the bank.In other words,the global financial system simply cannot afford for Deutsche Bank to fail,and right now it is literally melting down right in front of our eyes.For years I have been warning that this day would come,and even though it has been hit by scandal after scandal,somehow Deutsche Bank was able to survive until now.But after what we have witnessed in recent days,many now believe that the end is near for Deutsche Bank.On July 7th,they really shook up investors all over the globe when they laid off 18,000 employees and announced that they would be completely exiting their global equities trading business

德意志银行是欧洲最重要的银行,拥有49万亿美元的衍生品敞口,美国大多数"大到不能倒"的大银行都与该银行有着非常深厚的金融联系。换句话说,全球金融体系根本承受不起德意志银行的破产,而现在它正在我们眼前逐渐崩溃。多年来,我一直在警告,这一天终将到来,尽管德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)受到了打击,但不知何故,它仍然能够生存到现在。但在我们最近几天目睹了这一切之后,许多人现在认为,德意志银行的末日即将到来。77日,他们解雇了18000名员工并宣布他们将彻底退出,这真的震惊了全球的投资者。

It takes a lot to rattle Wall Street.

要震惊华尔街需要付出很多努力。

But Deutsche Bank managed to.The beleaguered German giant announced on July 7 that it is laying off 18,000 employees—roughly one-fifth of its global workforce—and pursuing a vast restructuring plan that most notably includes shutting down its global equities trading business.

但德意志银行设法做到了。这家陷入困境的德国巨头77日宣布,将裁员1.8万人,约占其全球员工总数的五分之一,其中最引人注目的是关闭其全球股票交易业务。

Though Deutsche's Bloody Sunday seemed to come out of the blue,it's actually the culmination of a years-long—some would say decades-long—descent into unprofitability and scandal for the bank,which in the early 1990s set out to make itself into a universal banking powerhouse to rival the behemoths of Wall Street.

尽管德意志银行的"血色星期天"(Bloody Sunday)似乎来得有些突然,但它实际上是一年之久(有些人可能会说是几十年之久)陷入无利可图和丑闻的高潮。上世纪90年代初,德意志银行开始将自己打造成一家全能银行业巨擘,与华尔街的巨头相抗衡。

These moves may delay Deutsche Bank's inexorable march into oblivion,but not by much.

这些举措可能会推迟德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)不可阻挡的进军,但不会推迟太久。

And as Deutsche Bank collapses,it could take a whole lot of others down with it at the same time.According to Wall Street On Parade,the bank had 49 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives as of the end of last year…

而随着德意志银行的倒闭,它可能同时拖垮其他许多银行。根据美联储的数据,截至去年年底,美联储有49万亿美元的衍生品敞口.....

During 2018,the serially troubled Deutsche Bank–which still has a vast derivatives footprint in the U.S.as counterparty to some of the largest banks on Wall Street–trimmed its exposure to derivatives from a notional€48.266 trillion to a notional€43.459 trillion(49 trillion U.S.dollars)according to its 2018 annual report. A derivatives book of$49 trillion notional puts Deutsche Bank in the same league as the bank holding companies of U.S.juggernauts JPMorgan Chase,Citigroup and Goldman Sachs,which logged in at$48 trillion,$47 trillion and$42 trillion,respectively,at the end of December 2018 according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency(OCC).(See Table 2 in the Appendix at this link.)

2018年,连续陷入困境的德意志银行——作为华尔街一些最大银行的交易对手,在美国仍然有着巨大的衍生品足迹——一本价值49万亿美元的衍生品账簿使得德意志银行与美国巨头摩根大通(JPMorganChase)、花旗集团(Citigroup)和高盛(GoldmanSachs)的银行控股公司处于同一行列,根据美国货币主计官办公室交易委员会(OCC)的数据,截至201812月底,这三家银行分别进账48万亿美元、47万亿美元和42万亿美元。(见本文附录的表2)

一家拥有49万亿美元衍生品风险敞口的银行正在我们眼前消失

Yes,the actual credit risk to Deutsche Bank is much,much lower than the notional value of its derivatives contracts,but we are still talking about an obscene amount of exposure.

没错,德意志银行的实际信贷风险远远低于其衍生品合约的名义价值,但我们仍在讨论大量的风险敞口。

And this is especially true when we consider the state of Deutsche Bank's balance sheet.According to Nasdaq.com,as of the end of last year the bank had total assets of 1.541 trillion dollars and total liabilities of 1.469 trillion dollars.

当我们考虑到德意志银行的资产负债表状况时,尤其如此。根据美联储的数据,截至去年年底,该行总资产为1.541万亿美元,负债总额为1.469万亿美元。

In other words,there wasn't much equity there at the end of December,and things have deteriorated rapidly since that time.In fact,it is being reported that a billion dollars a day is being pulled out of the bank at this point.

换句话说,在12月底那里没有多少公平,自那以后情况迅速恶化。事实上,据报道,目前正在从银行中撤出。

I know that most Americans don't really care if Deutsche Bank lives or dies,but as the New York Post has pointed out,the failure of Deutsche Bank could quickly become a major crisis for the entire global financial system…

我知道大多数美国人并不真正关心德意志银行的生死,但是,德意志银行的破产可能很快成为整个全球金融体系的一场重大危机.....

But the important fact to remember is that Deutsche Bank traded these derivatives with other financial firms.So,is this going to be another Lehman Brothers situation whereby one bank's problems becomes other banks'problems?

但需要记住的重要事实是,德意志银行与其它金融机构进行了这些衍生品的交易。那么,这是否会成为另一个雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的情况,即一家银行的问题变成其它银行的问题?

Pay close attention to this.

请密切关注这一点。

If the situation gets out of hand,the Federal Reserve and other central banks will have no choice but to cut interest rates even if it's not the best thing for the world economies.

如果形势失控,美联储和其他中央银行将别无选择,只能降低利率,即使这对世界经济不是最好的选择。

一家拥有49万亿美元衍生品风险敞口的银行正在我们眼前消失

In particular,some of the largest "too big to fail banks"in the United States are"heavily interconnected financially"to Deutsche Bank.The following comes from Wall Street On Parade

特别是,美国一些最大的银行与德意志银行"在财务上紧密相连"。以下内容来自.....

We know that Deutsche Bank's derivative tentacles extend into most of the major Wall Street banks.According to a 2016 reportfrom the International Monetary Fund(IMF),Deutsche Bank is heavily interconnected financially to JPMorgan Chase,Citigroup,Goldman Sachs,Morgan Stanley and Bank of America as well as other mega banks in Europe.The IMF concluded that Deutsche Bank posed a greater threat to global financial stability than any other bank as a result of these interconnections–and that was when its market capitalization was tens of billions of dollars larger than it is today.

我们知道,德意志银行的衍生品触角已延伸到大多数华尔街大银行。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一份报告,德意志银行与摩根大通(JPMorganChase)、花旗集团(Citigroup)、高盛(GoldmanSachs)、摩根士丹利(MorganStanley)、美国银行(BankofAmerica)以及欧洲其它大型银行在财务上存在。国际货币基金组织的结论是,由于这些相互联系,德意志银行比任何其他银行对全球金融稳定构成了更大的威胁----当时德意志银行的市值比现在多出数百亿美元。

Until these mega banks are broken up,until the Fed is replaced by a competent and serious regulator of bank holding companies,and until derivatives are restricted to those that trade on a transparent exchange,the next epic financial crash is just one counterparty blowup away.

除非这些大型银行破产,除非美联储被一个称职而严肃的银行控股公司监管机构所取代,除非衍生品仅限于在透明的交易所交易,否则下一次大规模金融崩溃只是交易对手的一次爆炸。

As long as I have been doing this,I have been warning my readers to watch the global derivatives market.It played a starring role during the last financial crisis,and it will play a starring role in the next one too.

只要我一直这么做,我就一直在警告我的读者。它在上次金融危机中扮演了重要角色,在下次危机中也将扮演重要角色。

The fundamental structural problems that were exposed during 2008 and 2009 were never fixed.In fact,many would argue that the global financial system is even more vulnerable today than it was back during that time.

2008年和2009年暴露出来的基本结构问题从未得到解决。事实上,许多人会辩称,今天的全球金融体系甚至比那个时候更加脆弱。

And now it appears that the next"Lehman Brothers moment"may be playing out right in front of our eyes.

现在看来,下一个"雷曼兄弟时刻"可能正在我们眼前上演。

Now more than ever,keep a close eye on Deutsche Bank,because it appears that they could be the first really big domino to fall.

现在比以往任何时候都要密切关注德意志银行,因为它们似乎可能成为第一个真正倒下的大多米诺骨牌。

来源:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-20/bank-49-trillion-derivatives-exposure-melting-down-our-eyes

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  • 本文由 发表于 2019年7月22日16:16:39
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