When the history books are written about 2020 and the great coronavirus pandemic,Anders Tegnell,the humble Swedish state epidemiologist and architect of the global-consensus-defying'Sweden strategy',will inevitably loom large throughout the text.But whether he is portrayed as a hero or villain may-like so many things in this highly polarized era-ultimately depend on who's writing the piece.
当历史书写到2020年和大型冠状病毒的流行时，安德斯•泰格内尔(Anders Tegnell)——这位卑微的瑞典国家流行病学家和违背全球共识的"瑞典战略"的设计师——将不可避免地在书中占据重要地位。但是，在这个高度两极化的时代，他是被描绘成一个英雄还是一个恶棍——就像很多事情一样——最终取决于谁在写这篇文章。
As the FT explained in its latest in a series of interviews with Tegnell,the American press-thanks in large part to its newfound fanatical devotion to the cause of"science"-including the NYT,has been particularly hard on Tegnell.The Gray Lady has called Sweden a"pariah state"and"the world's cautionary tale."
正如英国《金融时报》在最近一次对泰格内尔的系列采访中所解释的那样，美国媒体对 Tegnell 的态度尤为强硬，这在很大程度上要归功于其新近对"科学"事业的狂热投入。格雷夫人称瑞典为"贱民国家"和"世界的警世故事"
European papers have been somewhat more forgiving.That's perhaps because the lockdowns imposed across Europe were far more restrictive than what most,outside NYC,experienced in the US.And despite all that work,new daily cases are back to seeing record highs in France,and post-lockdown highs in Spain,while cases climb in Italy,the UK,Germany and across Central Europe into Ukraine.
欧洲报纸在某种程度上更为宽容。这可能是因为在整个欧洲实施的封锁比大多数纽约以外的国家在美国经历的要严格得多。尽管做了所有这些工作，但在法国，每日新增病例又回到了历史最高水平，在西班牙，病例在戒严后也达到了历史最高水平，而在意大利、英国、德国，以及穿过中欧进入乌克兰的病例也有所上升。
But sure enough,there's one European nation where cases haven't been showing a"second wave":Sweden.
但毫无疑问，有一个欧洲国家的病例还没有出现"第二波":瑞典。
Instead,cases have continued to fall well into September.
相反，病例一直持续到9月份。
There's no denying that Sweden suffered a large tally of preventable deaths in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities early on the in the pandemic.But as more time has passed,Sweden's outsize death toll is looking more and more reasonable,particularly compared to the UK and Spain and France.
不可否认的是，在年流行病爆发的早期，瑞典在疗养院和其他长期护理机构中有大量可预防的死亡病例。但随着时间的推移，瑞典的巨大死亡人数看起来越来越合理，尤其是与英国、西班牙和法国相比。
But even when compared to its well-managed Nordic neighbors,Sweden's numbers are starting to turn.
但即使与管理良好的北欧邻国相比，瑞典的人数也开始转变。
Here's another view of the respective COVID-19 case data. 这里是2019冠状病毒疾病案例数据的另一个视图。
The data could offer some insight into why one Swedish CEO told an FT reporter in hushed tones that he would love to tag along on a meeting to meet Tegnell,who had reportedly been planning to spend 2020 helping Somalia set up a public health agency and sending out surveys to Swedes before COVID hit.
这些数据可以让我们了解，为什么一位瑞典首席执行官悄悄地告诉英国《金融时报》记者，他很乐意参加与泰格内尔的会面。据报道，泰格内尔计划在2020年帮助索马里建立一个公共卫生机构，并在 COVID 袭击之前向瑞典发送调查报告。
For many Swedes,their state epidemiologist has embodied a rational approach as other countries have appeared to sacrifice science to emotion."I wish I were coming with you to see him,"one of Sweden's leading chief executives confided to me just before I went to see Tegnell."The way he has stood for what he believes in while the rest of the world does something else is admirable."
对许多瑞典人来说，他们国家的流行病学家体现了一种理性的方法，就像其他国家似乎为了情感而牺牲科学一样。"我真希望能和你一起去看他，"就在我去见泰格内尔之前，瑞典一位主要首席执行官向我吐露心声。"当世界其它地区在做其它事情时，他坚持自己的信仰，这种方式令人钦佩。"
It's worth adding that Tegnell's critics in Sweden,even amid all the furor about the"public opinion polls"that were so widely touted by English-language media outets-polls that of course purportedly reflected growing discontent with Tegnell's and the government's approach.
值得补充的是，尽管英文媒体广泛吹捧的"民意调查"(public opinion polls)引起了轩然大波，但在瑞典，泰格内尔的批评者仍然表示反对——民意调查显然反映出，人们对泰格内尔和政府的做法越来越不满。
But the situation in Sweden has changed rapidly.And although Tegnell has been careful to repudiate the notion that Sweden"went herd",as President Trump might say,there's little doubt that despite all the setbacks-including the wave of international condemnation that followed the publication of Sweden's Q2 GDP figures-the ruling party and Tegnell are much more widely respected inside Sweden than elsewhere in Europe.
但是瑞典的情况发生了迅速的变化。特朗普总统可能会说，虽然泰格内尔一直谨慎地否认瑞典"从众"的说法，但毫无疑问，尽管遭遇了所有挫折——包括瑞典第二季度 GDP 数据公布后国际社会的谴责浪潮——但执政党和泰格内尔在瑞典国内受到的尊重，远远超过欧洲其他地方。
For some local experts,Tegnell's standing alone as the world locked down inspires none of the CEO's veneration."Tegnell is known for his stubbornness.You wonder what this would have looked like with a different person in charge,"says a Swedish epidemiologist who has been a critic of Tegnell's.International media have been harsher still:The New York Times has called Sweden a"pariah state"and"the world's cautionary tale".
对于一些当地的专家来说，Tegnell 独自站在封闭的世界里，丝毫没有引起这位首席执行官的尊敬。"泰格内尔以固执著称。你想知道如果换一个负责人会是什么样子，"一位曾经批评过泰格内尔的瑞典流行病学家说。国际媒体的态度更加严厉:《纽约时报》称瑞典是一个"被遗弃的国家"和"世界的警示故事"。
In his latest interview with the FT, Tegnell shares his predictions for Sweden,which sound markedly different from Dr.Fauci's comments about the future of the US outbreak yesterday.
在最近一次接受英国《金融时报》采访时，泰格内尔分享了他对瑞典的预测。这些预测听起来与福西博士昨日有关美国疫情爆发前景的言论明显不同。
But if there's one takeaway from the FT piece that we find particularly interesting,it's the degree of trust that the Swedish people placed in Tegnell.
但是，如果说英国《金融时报》的文章中有什么特别有趣的地方，那就是瑞典人对 Tegnell 的信任程度。
Today,the architect of Sweden's lighter-touch approach says the country will have"a low level of spread"with occasional local outbreaks.
今天，这位瑞典"宽松政策"的设计者表示，该国的疫情"传播水平较低"，偶尔会在当地爆发。
"What it will be in other countries,I think that is going to be more critical.They are likely to be more vulnerable to these kind of spikes.
"我认为，其它国家的情况将更为关键。他们可能更容易受到这类峰值的影响。
Those kind of things will most likely be bigger when you don't have a level of immunity that can sort of put the brake on it,"he adds.Herd immunity is one of the most controversial concepts of the Covid-19 crisis.Tegnell is adamant that it was not Sweden's goal to allow the virus to run its course until enough of the population had been exposed and the infection rate slowed.But he argues immunity is at least in part responsible for the sharp recent drop in Swedish cases and questions how its neighbors will fare without it.
当你没有一定程度的免疫力时，这些事情很可能会变得更大。"他补充道。群体免疫是2019冠状病毒疾病危机中最具争议的概念之一。泰格内尔坚持认为，瑞典的目标不是让病毒继续发展，直到有足够的人群接触到病毒，感染率降低。但他认为，豁免权至少是瑞典近期案件急剧下降的部分原因，并质疑如果没有豁免权，其邻国将如何发展。
"What is protecting Copenhagen today?We will see,"he adds.Sweden's approach to the pandemic is unusual in large part because its governance is unusual.Unlike in pretty much every other country,it is not politicians who take the big decisions but Sweden's public health agency,due to its constitution giving big powers to independent authorities.In practice,this means Tegnell."This whole approach is Tegnell's.The government has accepted it without questions,"says the critical epidemiologist.
"今天是什么在保护哥本哈根？我们拭目以待，"他补充道。瑞典应对流感大流行的方法之所以不同寻常，很大程度上是因为它的治理方式不同寻常。与几乎所有其他国家不同的是，由于瑞典宪法赋予独立当局很大的权力，决定重大决策的不是政治家，而是瑞典的公共卫生机构。实际上，这意味着 Tegnell。"整个方法都是 Tegnell 的。政府已经毫无疑问地接受了它，"这位批评流行病学家表示。
Asked by the FT about his distaste for lockdowns,and his decision to stand strong against the crowd,even in the face of sometimes incredible vitriol,Tegnell shrugged his head,and noted the backing of all the rest of the 500 or so staff at Sweden's public health agency.
当被英国《金融时报》问及他对封锁的厌恶，以及他即使面对有时难以置信的尖酸刻薄，仍然坚决反对人群的决定时，泰格内尔耸了耸头，指出瑞典公共卫生机构大约500名工作人员的支持。
That makes his ability to stand alone as the rest of the world locked down seem all the more remarkable.I ask him about it,suggesting it must be easier just to go with the flow."Yes,of course it is.But I am not alone,"he says,dutifully listing the backing of the 500 staff in the public health agency as well as Sweden's government and population.The only other country not to lock down in Europe was authoritarian Belarus,I say.He erupts in a burst of nervous laughter:"That's no comparison."He looks awkward as I mention strong support for Sweden's strategy from some US libertarians and UK supporters of a hard Brexit."Odd bedfellows,"is his sole comment.His dislike of national lockdowns is obvious."It's really using a hammer to kill a fly,"he insists.Instead,his approach has been about having a strategy that can work for years if needs be,rather than the constant chopping and changing seen in the rest of Europe."We don't see it as viable to have this kind of drastic closing down,opening and closing.You can't open and close schools.That is going to be a disaster.And you probably can't open and close restaurants and stuff like that either too many times.Once or twice,yes,but then people will get very tired and businesses will probably suffer more than if you close them down completely,"he says.
这使得他在世界其他国家陷入僵局时能够独立自主的能力显得更加非凡。我问他这个问题，建议顺其自然会更容易些。"是的，当然是。但我并不孤单，"他尽职尽责地列出了公共卫生机构500名工作人员的支持，以及瑞典政府和民众的支持。我说，欧洲唯一没有被封锁的国家是专制的白俄罗斯。他爆发出一阵紧张的笑声:"这没有可比性。"当我提到一些美国自由主义者和英国强烈脱欧支持者对瑞典战略的强烈支持时，他显得有些尴尬。"奇怪的同床者，"这是他唯一的评论。他对国家封锁的厌恶是显而易见的。"这实际上是用锤子杀死苍蝇，"他坚持说。相反，他的方法是制定一个如果需要的话可以持续多年的战略，而不是像欧洲其他国家那样不断变化。"我们认为，这种剧烈关闭、开启和关闭的做法是不可行的。你不能开放和关闭学校。这将是一场灾难。你可能也不能经常开或关餐馆之类的事情。有一两次是这样，但那样的话，人们会感到非常疲惫，企业可能会遭受比完全关闭更大的损失。"。
Many Americans have also been guilty of criticizing Sweden without first appreciating how radical its program truly was.Throughout the pandemic,youth sports never even stopped.Now,the return of sports is suddenly becoming a major issue in the US.
许多美国人在批评瑞典的时候，没有首先意识到它的计划是多么的激进。在整个流行病期间，青年运动从未停止过。现在，体育运动的回归突然成为美国的一个主要问题。
Sweden's approach was predicated on trying to keep its healthcare system working but also looking at public health in the broadest sense,rather than narrowly trying to minimise Covid-19 deaths.So children's sports carried on,as did primary school lessons,yoga sessions,drinking and eating out with friends,and shopping.This trip is my first time in Stockholm for six months—I am based in Oslo and had been to Sweden once during the pandemic,to Gothenburg in June—and I soon settle into my usual rhythm.I go record shopping at several of my favourite spots,picking up several bargains,have coffee with a contact nearby,and take the metro to meetings and my hotel.Throughout,I barely see a single person with a mask.
瑞典的做法是基于试图保持其医疗保健系统的工作，同时从最广泛的意义上考虑公共卫生，而不是狭隘地试图将2019冠状病毒疾病死亡率降到最低。于是，孩子们继续进行体育运动，小学课程，瑜伽课程，和朋友一起喝酒吃饭，购物。这是我六个月来第一次来斯德哥尔摩旅行ーー我住在奥斯陆，在流感大流行期间去过一次瑞典，6月份去过戈森堡ーー我很快就适应了我的日常生活节奏。我去我最喜欢的几个地方录制购物，买几个便宜货，和附近的联系人喝咖啡，坐地铁去会议室和我住的酒店。自始至终，我几乎看不到一个戴着面具的人。
But would aliens landing in Sweden really not realize that there's a pandemic going on?Tegnell doubts this.And with good reason.
但是外星人来到瑞典真的没有意识到这是一场流行病吗？泰格内尔对此表示怀疑。而且有充分的理由。
I suggest to Tegnell that an alien landing in Sweden would have difficulty knowing there is a pandemic whereas in England or France,with face masks prevalent,they would realise immediately.He argues that while that might be true on the surface,especially with masks—which Sweden is one of the few countries not to recommend wearing in public—the differences elsewhere are exaggerated.Swedes have stopped travelling just as much as neighbours;hotels and restaurants may not have closed but have been severely affected.He points to the markings in supermarkets showing people where to stand and detailed restrictions on restaurants in terms of how many people they can have and how they serve them.
我向 Tegnell 建议，如果一个外国人来到瑞典，他很难知道这是一场大流行病，而在英国或法国，戴着普遍的口罩，他们会立即意识到。他认为，尽管表面上可能是这样，尤其是戴面具时(瑞典是少数几个不建议在公共场合戴面具的国家之一)，但其它地区的差异被夸大了。瑞典人已经不像邻居那样经常旅行了;酒店和餐馆可能没有关门，但是受到了严重的影响。他指出，超市里的标识告诉人们应该站在哪里，并详细规定了餐馆可以容纳多少人以及如何供应。
During the closing lines of the piece,the author includes one last Tegnell soundbite that's as brilliant as any to end on.And it's-of course-Tegnell's"view"on a COVID-19 vaccine,something he believes won't be a"silver bullet".
在作品的最后几行，作者包括了最后一个泰格尼尔式的完美结尾。当然，这也是 Tegnell 对2019冠状病毒疾病疫苗的"观点"，他相信这不会是"银弹"。
Our conversation ends with Tegnell again swimming against the tide,and warning that a vaccine-if and when it comes-will not be the"silver bullet".He adds:"Once again,I'm not very fond of easy solutions to complex problems and to believe that once the vaccine is here,we can go back and live as we always have done.I think that's a dangerous message to send because it's not going to be that easy."
我们的谈话以 Tegnell 再次游泳逆潮结束，并警告说，疫苗-如果和当它来-将不是"银弹"。他补充说:"再一次，我不喜欢简单的解决复杂问题的方法，并且相信一旦疫苗到了这里，我们就可以回到过去，像往常一样生活。我认为这是一个危险的信息，因为这不会那么容易。"
Looks like Tegnell was ahead of the curve once again.
看起来 Tegnell 又一次走在了潮流的前面。
来源：
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pariah-state-no-longer-architect-swedens-covid-19-strategy-shows-lockdowns-werent
