The latest Markit servey data released on Thursday confirmed that Germany's manufacturing recession continues to broaden.The worst fears are now being realized as loose ECB monetary policy is failing to contain the economic slowdown as it successfully transmits weakness from manufacturing into the services and jobs market.
周四发布的 Markit 最新数据证实，德国制造业衰退继续扩大。随着欧洲央行宽松的货币政策未能遏制经济放缓，最糟糕的担忧正在成为现实。宽松的货币政策成功地将经济疲软从制造业转移到服务业和就业市场。
IHS Markit's Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI remained little changed at 41.9 in October,a slight increase from September's ten-year low of 41.7,however red alerts flashed below the surface as employment in Germany's factory industry fell the most in almost 10 years.
Ihs Markit 的德国制造业 PMI 预览值10月份仍维持在41.9，较9月份41.7的10年低点略有上升，但随着德国制造业就业人数创下近10年来最大降幅，红色预警在表面之下闪现。
What is just as concerning is that the weakness in manufacturing has clearly infected Germany's relatively immune-until now-service sector,as Germany's Service PMI fell to 51.2 from 51.4 in Sept,down sharply from 54.7 a year ago,and the lowest reading since Sept.2016.Notably,New Business orders dropped to 47.6 vs 48.6 in Sept,the lowest reading since June 2013.
同样令人担忧的是，制造业的疲软显然影响了迄今为止相对免疫的德国服务业。德国的服务业 PMI 从9月份的51.4降至51.2，远低于一年前的54.7，为2016年9月以来的最低水平。值得注意的是，9月份新业务订单降至47.6对48.6，为2013年6月以来的最低水平。
The Composite Index,registered 48.6 in October,little-changed from September's near seven-year low of 48.5 and below the 50 unchanged level for the second month in a row.However,most ominously,the survey showed employment falling for the first time in six years.
综合指数在十月份录得48.6，与九月份接近七年低位的48.5相比变化不大，并连续第二个月低于50的水平。然而，最令人不安的是，调查显示，就业率六年来首次出现下降。
The rapid deceleration of manufacturing in Europe's largest industrial hub has severely weighed on employment,now falling for the first time in six years according to Markit:
这个欧洲最大的工业中心制造业的快速减速严重影响了就业，据 Markit 称，目前就业率6年来首次下降:
"October saw employment across the German private sector fall,albeit only slightly,for the first time in six years.Job losses were largely centered on manufacturing,where staffing numbers fell to the greatest extent for nearly ten years amid the widespread paring of temporary and contract workers.That said,a slowdown in service sector job creation to a three-and-a-half-year low was also recorded.
"10月份，整个德国私人部门的就业率出现了6年来的首次下降，尽管幅度不大。失业主要集中在制造业，在临时工和合同工普遍裁员的情况下，制造业的员工数量近十年来下降幅度最大。尽管如此，服务业就业创造的放缓也创下了三年半以来的新低。
The drop in overall employment in October was in line with signs of easing capacity pressures and a deterioration in business confidence towards the future activity.Firms reduced backlogs of work for the twelfth month in a row and at the quickest rate for nearly seven years,"IHS wrote.
10月份总体就业人数下降，与能力压力缓解和企业对未来活动信心恶化的迹象相一致。公司连续第十二个月减少了工作积压，而且是近七年来最快的速度。
Commenting on Germany's manufacturing recession spreading into employment is Phil Smith,Principal Economist at IHS Markit,who said:
Ihs Markit 首席经济学家菲尔•史密斯(Phil Smith)在评论德国制造业衰退蔓延至就业时表示:
"Hopes of a return to growth in Germany in the final quarter have been somewhat dashed by the October flash PMI numbers,which show business activity in the Eurozone's largest economy contracting further and underlying demand continues to soften.
"德国在最后一个季度恢复增长的希望，已经在一定程度上被10月份采购经理人指数(PMI)预览值打破。这些数据显示，这个欧元区最大经济体的商业活动进一步收缩，潜在需求继续。
"Manufacturing remains the main weak link,though here there are some signs of encouragement with rates of decline in production and new orders easing and business confidence improving to a four-month high.
"制造业仍然是主要的薄弱环节，不过有一些迹象表明，生产率下降、新订单减少、商业信心升至4个月高点，这些都令人鼓舞。
"Perhaps most concerning are the signs of increasing strain on the domestic economy,with the growth of service sector activity slowing to the weakest since September 2016 and employment now in decline for the first time in six years."
"也许最令人担忧的是，有迹象表明，国内经济承受的压力越来越大，服务业活动增速降至2016年9月以来的最低水平，就业人数6年来首次出现下降。"
The souring outlook in Germany is a clear indication the Eurozone might not see a recovery this year.The world as a whole,is stuck in a synchronized global downturn,where monetary policy is becoming less effective than ever before to generate a 2016 style rebound.The calls for fiscal stimulus by ECB authorities,global banks,and governments tell us that elites who run the world know that central banking died in 2019.This should terrify us all that central banks'supposed monetary cannons,or let's say monetary toolkits,are likely depleted.Who is ready for helicopter money and MMT?
德国糟糕的经济前景清楚地表明，欧元区今年可能不会出现复苏。作为一个整体，世界陷入了一个同步的全球经济衰退，货币政策变得比以往任何时候都不那么有效，以产生一个2016年式的反弹。欧洲央行当局、全球银行和各国政府要求财政刺激的呼声告诉我们，掌管世界的精英们知道，央行在2019年已经死亡。这应该会让我们所有人感到恐惧，因为央行所谓的货币大炮(或者说货币工具包)可能已经耗尽。谁准备好接受直升机撒钱和 MMT？
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