欧盟委员会警告说,除非德国发行更多债务,否则前景堪忧

2019年11月8日09:30:11欧盟委员会警告说,除非德国发行更多债务,否则前景堪忧已关闭评论 467 5308字阅读17分41秒
摘要

国际货币基金组织警告欧洲”做好最坏的打算”,并为经济衰退制定紧急计划,强烈敦促欧洲采取重大的财政应对措施(翻译过来就是:德国应该发行更多的债务),欧盟委员会也发布了自己的经济预测,彭博社的理查德·布雷斯洛说,这些预测”令人沮丧”

One day after the IMF,whose former boss is now head of the ECB,warned Europe to"prepare for the worst"and put in place emergency plans for an economic slump strongly urging Europe to implement a major fiscal response(translated:Germany should issue much more debt),the European Commission published its own economic forecasts which as Bloomberg's Richard Breslow said"make for a dour reading."

一天前,国际货币基金组织警告欧洲"做好最坏的打算",并为经济衰退制定紧急计划,强烈敦促欧洲采取重大的财政应对措施(翻译过来就是:德国应该发行更多的债务),欧盟委员会也发布了自己的经济预测,彭博社的理查德·布雷斯洛说,这些预测"令人沮丧"

Specifically,the European Commission cut its euro-area growth and inflation outlook even as Germany appears to be careening into a recession with its manufacturing engine contracting sharply for over a years..

具体来说,欧盟委员会(European Commission)下调了欧元区经济增长和通胀预期,尽管德国制造业引擎已大幅萎缩多年,似乎正滑向衰退。.

欧盟委员会警告说,除非德国发行更多债务,否则前景堪忧

...amid global trade tensions and policy uncertainty,warning that Europe's economic resilience won't last forever.

...在全球贸易紧张和政策不确定的情况下,欧洲警告说,欧洲的经济韧性不会永远持续下去。

"Adding to domestic economic shocks and policy uncertainty,the slowdown in global demand and weak trade has hit the European economy hard,"EU chief economist Marco Buti wrote in the report.

欧盟首席经济学家马可·布蒂在报告中写道:"除了国内经济震荡和政策不确定性外,全球需求放缓和贸易疲软也对欧洲经济造成了严重打击。"

The Commission sees economic momentum remaining subdued through 2021,if not entering an outright recession,and forecasting GDP growth of 1.2%for that year.Meanwhile,at 1.3%,inflation is projected to remain far below the European Central Bank goal of just below 2%over the medium term.

欧盟委员会认为,经济增长势头在2021年仍将保持低迷,如果不是进入彻底的衰退的话,预计2021年的 GDP 增长率为1.2%。与此同时,1.3%的通胀率预计仍将远低于欧洲央行(ecb)设定的略低于2%的中期目标。

欧盟委员会警告说,除非德国发行更多债务,否则前景堪忧

The projections,in line with those of Wall Street analysts,reflect the admission of more pronounced weakness in the region,which has been especially impacted by the global trade war as tariffs disputes hit manufacturers and dent broader confidence.The slowdown resulted in the ECB last month cutting rates to even more negative levels and re-launching QE.The Commission also warned that risks,which include the possibility of a disorderly Brexit,remain"decidedly to the downside."

这些预测与华尔街分析师的预测一致,反映出该地区承认了更为明显的疲软。由于关税争端打击了制造商,并削弱了更广泛的信心,该地区受到了全球贸易战的特别影响。经济放缓导致欧洲央行上月将利率下调至更负的水平,并重启定量宽松政策。欧盟委员会还警告说,包括可能无序退欧在内的风险仍然"明显向下"

While the strength of the labor market and the resilience of the services sector have so far prevented a more broad-based deterioration of momentum,Buti warned that"this resilience cannot endure indefinitely."

虽然劳动力市场的强劲表现和服务业的韧性迄今为止阻止了更广泛的增长势头恶化,但布蒂警告称,"这种韧性不可能无限期持续下去。"

"Economic activity now looks set to slow down in a number of member states,which at first appeared immune,"he added.

他补充称:"目前看来,一些欧元区成员国的经济活动将放缓,这些国家起初似乎没有受到影响。"

欧盟委员会警告说,除非德国发行更多债务,否则前景堪忧

Hardest hit by the global slowdown has been Europe's manufacturing sector,and as a result manufacturers across the region have lowered their outlooks in recent weeks.As Bloomberg notes,Rheinmetall cut its full-year forecast citing a downturn in global automotive production,Siemens said weakness in the car and factory-equipment industries will lead to a decline in some business volumes next year,and Volkswagen's finance chief warned of two tough years ahead for industry.

受全球经济放缓影响最严重的是欧洲的制造业,因此该地区的制造商在最近几周都降低了他们的展望。正如彭博社(Bloomberg)指出的那样,莱茵金属公司(Rheinmetall)因全球汽车产量下滑而下调了全年预测,西门子(Siemens)表示,汽车和工厂设备行业的疲软将导致明年部分业务量下降,大众汽车(Volkswagen)财务总监警告称,汽车业未来两年将面临艰。

To be sure there have been some"green shoots"in recent economic data,including French momentum which proved more resilient than expected in the third quarter,and robust growth in the Spanish economy.However,more ominously,Germany probably slipped into a technical recession at the same time,with the Commission predicting only"muted growth"through 2021.As for Italy,the expects"no signs of a meaningful recovery."

可以肯定的是,近期经济数据中出现了一些"萌芽",其中包括法国第三季度的增长势头比预期更具弹性,以及西班牙经济的强劲增长。然而,更为不祥的是,德国可能同时陷入了技术性衰退,欧盟委员会预测,到2021年,德国经济增长只会"放缓"。至于意大利,欧洲央行预计"没有显著复苏的迹象"

So what is the European Commission's advice?It's the same as that of the IMF,and now former ECB head,Mario Draghi:spend more!Because apparently a crisis that was the result of too much debt can only be fixed with even more debt.

那么欧盟委员会的建议是什么呢?这和国际货币基金组织一样,现在欧洲央行前行长马里奥·德拉吉:花更多的钱!因为显然,过多债务导致的危机只能通过更多的债务来解决。

"Using available fiscal space actively would allow member states not only to provide a fiscal stimulus amid the sharp slowdown in manufacturing that threatens to spill over to the labor market,but also to refresh and modernize the public capital stock,thereby boosting potential growth,"the Commission's report said.

欧盟委员会的报告称,"积极利用可用的财政空间,不仅可以让成员国在制造业急剧放缓、可能蔓延到劳动力市场的情况下提供财政刺激,还可以让公共资本存量得到更新和现代化,从而推动潜在的增长。"

That echoes the latest demands by the ECB,which deployed fresh monetary stimulus in September in a package aimed at bolstering the economy,although outgoing chief Mario Draghi warned that euro-area governments should do more to support the central bank's efforts with fiscal spending,a message his successor Christine Lagarde has also pushed.

这与欧洲央行的最新要求相呼应,欧洲央行在9月份出台了新的货币刺激方案,旨在提振经济,不过即将离任的欧洲央行行长 Mario Draghi 警告说,欧元区各国政府应该采取更多措施支持欧洲央行的财政支出努力,他的继任者克里斯蒂娜·拉加德也在推动这一信息。

So far,the message has fallen on deaf ears.German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said on Thursday the country is in a"stable economic situation"adding that"we will have more growth in the next years.If the trade tensions worldwide will be reduced,this will have a real impact on better growth."

到目前为止,人们对这一消息充耳不闻。德国财政部长奥拉夫肖尔茨(Olaf Scholz)周四表示,德国目前处于"稳定的经济状况",并补充说,"未来年我们将实现更大的增长。如果全球贸易紧张局势得到缓解,这将对更好的增长产生切实影响。"

In other words,only a major European crisis will get Germany to do what policymakers demand it it should do.We almost know what happens next...

换句话说,只有一场重大的欧洲危机才能让德国按照决策者的要求去做。我们几乎知道接下来会发生什么..

来源:

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/european-commission-issues-dire-forecast-demands-germany-issue-much-more-debt?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

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  • 本文由 发表于 2019年11月8日09:30:11
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