世界银行警告“债务浪潮”可能引发历史性危机,摧毁全球经济

2019年12月24日15:45:52世界银行警告“债务浪潮”可能引发历史性危机,摧毁全球经济已关闭评论 862 11859字阅读39分31秒
摘要

当讨论到债务这个话题时,世界上”真正聪明的人”发生了一些事情:他们变成了胡扯的白痴。

Something happens to the world's"really smart people"when the topic of debt is discussed:they become blabbering idiots.

当讨论到债务这个话题时,世界上"真正聪明的人"发生了一些事情:他们变成了胡扯的白痴。

Consider that last month we reported that according to the Institute of International Finance,global debt has now hit$250 trillion and is expected to rise to a record$255 trillion at the end of 2019,up$12 trillion from$243 trillion at the end of 2018,and nearly$32,500 for each of the 7.7 billion people on planet."With few signs of slowdown in the pace of debt accumulation,we estimate that global debt will surpass$255 trillion this year,"the IIF said in the report.

想想上个月我们的报告,根据国际金融协会,全球债务现在已经达到250万亿美元,预计到2019年底将达到创纪录的255万亿美元,比2018年底的243万亿美元增加了12万亿美元,地球上77亿人每人将近32,500美元。国际金融协会在报告中称,"鉴于债务累积速度几乎没有放缓的迹象,我们估计今年全球债务将超过255万亿美元."


Separately,Bank of America recently calculated that since the collapse of Lehman,government debt has increased by$30tn,corporates debt by$25tn,household by$9tn,and financial debt by$2tn;And with central banks expected to support government debt,BofA warns that"the biggest recession risk is disorderly rise in credit spreads&corporate deleveraging."

另外,根据美国银行(Bank of America)最近的计算,自雷曼(Lehman)破产以来,美国政府债务增加了30万亿美元,企业债务增加了25万亿美元,家庭债务增加了9万亿美元,金融债务增加了2万亿美元


Where the"really smart people"come in,is the periodic return every couple of years of the naive assumption that despite this relentless increase in global debt,central banks can tighten financial conditions and the world can sustain higher interest rates.What ends up happening is that after a few quarters of"reflation"-which ironically and circularly is critical to inflate the debt away-markets realize that higher rates on this mountain of debt are unsustainable,risk assets tumble and central banks are forced to unleash another wave of easing,in the process further Japanifying first Europe,and then the entire world.

"真正聪明的人"出现的地方,是每隔几年就会周期性地出现这样一种天真的假设:尽管全球债务不断增加,但各国央行可以收紧金融状况,世界可以维持更高的利率。最终发生的是,在经历了几个季度的"通货再膨胀"之后——具有讽刺意味的是,通货再膨胀对债务远离至关重要——市场意识到,这座债务山上的高利率是不可持续的,风险资产暴跌,央行被迫发起又一波宽松政策,在这个过程中,首先是欧洲,然后是整个世界进一步日本化。


Only the"really smart people"they don't use simple logic like that,and instead they call it a"mysterious"(and relentless)decline in the r-star(r*),"equilibrium"or neutral rate of interest...

只有那些"真正聪明的人"才不会使用那样简单的逻辑,而是称之为 r-star(r*)"均衡"或中性利率的"神秘"(而且无情)下降.....


...which is basically another way of saying that as the world's massive debt mountain grows,the maximum possible interest rate shrinks with every passing year,something we first discussed in 2015 in"The Blindingly Simple Reason Why The Fed Is About To Engage In Policy Error",in which we showed that the equilibrium rate is a simple function of just two variables:total debt/GDP and nominal GDP growth.And in a world where GDP growth is shrinking and total debt growing,it logically means that r-star has nowhere to go but down.

...这基本上是另一种说法,即随着世界巨额债务山的增长,最大可能利率每年都在收缩,这是我们在2015年首次在《美联储为何要从事政策错误的盲目简单理由》中讨论的问题,其中我们表明,均衡利率只是两个变量的简单函数:总债务/GDP 和名义 GDP 增长。在一个 GDP 增长萎缩、债务总额增长的世界里,这理所当然地意味着 r-star 只能走下坡路。


Yet none of this is obvious to the"really smart people"and as a result,every so often we get another controlled'reflation'attempt which inevitably ends in a market dump just like Q4 2018 when rates rose too high-due to the latest failed attempt to normalize policy-and risk assets tumbled.What's even more troubling,every crisis has a lower and lower threshold rate as shown in the next chart.it also explains why the Fed could barely hike to 2.5%before it was forced to promptly cut 3 times...and launch QE 4.

然而,对于"真正聪明的人"来说,这些都不是显而易见的,因此,我们时不时地会遇到另一种受控的"通货再膨胀"尝试,这种尝试不可避免地以市场崩盘告终,就像2018年第四季度那样——由于最新的政策正常化尝试失败,利率上升过高,风险资产。更麻烦的是,正如下图所示,每场危机都有一个越来越低的临界值。这也解释了为什么美联储在被迫立即削减3倍利率并启动第四轮定量宽松政策之前,几乎没有将利率提高到2.5%


A simple extrapolation of the declining trendline in the chart below suggests that the Fed's maximum interest rate will be 0%in just a few years.

下面图表中对下降趋势的简单推断表明,美联储的最高利率将在短短几年内达到0%

Which brings us to the point where the"really smart people"become blabbering idiots.Because roughly at this time,instead of talking higher rates to stimulate the economy-which we just learned is no longer possible due to too much debt-the discussion turns to adding stimulating the economy....by adding even more debt.Not unironically,Bloomberg recently published an article titled"The Way Out for a World Economy Hooked On Debt?More Debt."That such garbage merits even a remotely serious consideration is for three reasons:i)the"really smart people"need a narrative that doesn't make them look like"really dumb people",ii)that reflation as a way out of the current debt crisis is no longer possible,and iii)because even greater idiocy in the form of MMT,i.e.,helicopter money,is gaining serious consideration among the world's politicians(and even finance professionals),and may well become the dominant financial paradigm after the next crisis,a crisis which will then inevitably end with the long-overdue collapse of fiat currencies,because while central banks can't orchestrate a controlled increase in 1 or 2%without losing control of risk assets,they can certainly bring about an uncontrolled hyperinflation once the world finally loses faith in the prevailing monetary orthodoxy.

这就把我们带到了"真正聪明的人"变成胡扯的白痴的地步。因为大约在这个时候,我们不再谈论提高利率以刺激经济——我们刚刚了解到,由于债务过多,不再可能提高利率——而是转向增加刺激经济的措施.....。通过增加更多的债务。不无讽刺意味的是,布隆伯格最近发表了一篇题为《世界经济如何摆脱债务困境?更多的债务。"这些垃圾甚至值得认真考虑,原因有三:)"真正聪明的人"需要一个不会让他们看起来像"真正愚蠢的人"的故事;)通货再膨胀作为摆脱当前债务危机的一种方式已经不再可能;)因为以 MMT 形式出现的更愚蠢的行为,即。直升机货币,正在获得认真的考虑,在世界的政治家(甚至金融专业人士),并很可能成为主要的金融范例后,下一次危机,这场危机将不可避免地结束与长期拖延的法定货币崩溃,因为虽然中央银行不能精心安排12%的控制增长,而不失去对风险资产的控制,他们当然可以带来失控的恶性通货膨胀,一旦世界最终失去信心的主流货币正统。

And while the"really smart people"sound like absolute idiots once the unsolvable topic of debt comes around,it doesn't mean that they can't issue an occasional warning that it's all going to end in ruins.

一旦债务这个无法解决的话题浮出水面,"真正聪明的人"听起来就像白痴一样,但这并不意味着他们不能偶尔发出警告,说这一切都将以废墟告终。

That's what the World Bank did last week when it joined the BIS(the'central banks'central bank'is perhaps most notable for the fact that not a single central bank actually listens to its recommendations)in warning that the largest and fastest rise in global debt in half a century could lead to another financial crisis as the world economy slows.

上周,世界银行(World Bank)加入国际清算银行(BIS),警告称,随着全球经济放缓,半个世纪以来全球债务规模最大、速度最快的增长,可能会导致另一场金融危机。

In a report titled"Global Waves of Debt",the world bank looked at the four major episodes of debt increases that have occurred in more than 100 countries since 1970—the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s,the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s and the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009.

世界银行在一份题为《全球债务浪潮》(Global Waves of Debt)的报告中,研究了1970年以来100多个国家出现的四次主要债务增长:上世纪80年代的拉美债务危机、上世纪90年代末的亚洲金融危机和2007年至2009年的全球金融危机。

While not finding anything the IIF didn't already point out last month,the bank said during the fourth wave,from 2010 to 2018,the debt to GDP ratio of developing countries has risen by more than half to 168%:that was a faster increase on an annual basis than during the Latin American debt crisis.

虽然国际金融协会上个月没有发现任何尚未指出的问题,但在2010年至2018年的第四波危机期间,世行表示,发展中国家的债务与国内生产总值的比率已经上升了一半以上,达到168%:这是一个比拉美债务危机期间更快的年度增长率。

And,as the IIF found previously,the rise in debt has been across both private companies and governments across the world,amplifying the risks if there is another global financial crisis.As a reminder,this is what global debt looked like 20 years ago....

而且,正如国际金融研究所之前发现的那样,全球私营企业和政府的债务都在增加,如果再次发生全球金融危机,风险就会放大。提醒一下,这就是20年前的全球债务状况.....


...and what it looks like today:

以及今天的情况:

 

Something else the World Bank found that we already know:debt growth in the past decade was mostly concentrated in China which accounted for the bulk of the increase,with its debt-to-GDP ratio rising by nearly three-quarters to 255%since 2010,now totaling more than$20 trillion.

世界银行还发现了一些我们已经知道的东西:过去十年的债务增长主要集中在中国,中国占了增长的大部分,自2010年以来,中国的债务-GDP比增长了近四分之三,达到255%,现在总额超过20万亿美元。

Of course,it's not just China,as most emerging economies saw their debt rise over the eight years,and especially in the past 12 months.

当然,不仅仅是中国,因为大多数新兴经济体的债务在过去8年里都有所上升,尤其是在过去12个月里。


With common knowledge out of the way,the World Bank report said the latest wave of debt was more challenging than the previous three waves because of the build up of both private and public debt,new types of creditors including foreign investors and the big rise in borrowing,which was global and not limited to one or two regions.Poorer countries have also increasingly borrowed from non-traditional lenders such as China,which offer less favorable loan conditions,including higher interest rates and requiring stakes in projects as collateral,according to ABC .

世界银行的报告说,尽管大家都知道,但最近的债务浪潮比前三次更具挑战性,因为私人和公共债务都在积累,新类型的债权人包括外国投资者,以及借贷的大幅增加,这是全球性的,而不仅限于一两个地区。农行表示,较贫穷的国家也越来越多地向中国等非传统贷款机构借款,这些机构提供的贷款条件不那么优惠,包括提高利率,并要求将项目的股权作为抵押品。

Trump's appointee to the World Bank,David Malpass,said governments needed to strengthen their economic policies to make their countries less vulnerable to financial shocks:"It underscores why debt management and transparency need to be top priorities for policymakers—so they can increase growth and investment and ensure that the debt they take on contributes to better development outcomes for the people,"he said.

特朗普任命的世界银行行长戴维·马尔帕斯(David Malpass)表示,各国政府需要加强经济政策,使本国不那么容易受到金融冲击的影响:"这突显出,为什么债务管理和透明度需要成为决策者的首要任务ーー这样他们才能增加增长和投资,并确保他们承担的债务有助于改善人民的发展成果,

"The size,speed,and breadth of the latest debt wave should concern us all",the report noted.

报告指出:"最新债务浪潮的规模、速度和广度应该让我们所有人感到担忧。"

The irony,is that even in its warning,the World Bank failed to isolate the root of the problem:the report said low interest rates globally reduced the risk of a crisis for the time being,which is true;it is also the main factor enabling governments around the world to issue another wave of debt layering even more debt upon debt,and prompting Bloomberg articles explaining how only more debt can""solve a debt crisis.

具有讽刺意味的是,即便是世界银行(World Bank)发出警告,也未能找出问题的根源:报告称,全球范围内的低利率暂时降低了发生危机的风险,这是事实;这也是促使世界各国政府发行新一轮债务分层债务的主要因素,并促使彭博社(Bloomberg)撰文解释,只有更多的债务才能"解决债务危机"

Even so,the World Bank's vice president for equitable growth,finance and institutions Ceyla Pazarbasioglu said the dangers were building up.

即便如此,世界银行负责公平增长、金融和机构的副行长塞拉·帕扎尔巴西奥卢(Ceyla Pazarbasioglu)表示,危险正在积聚。

"History shows that large debt surges often coincide with financial crises in developing countries,at great cost to the population,"she said.

她表示:"历史表明,发展中国家的大规模债务激增往往与金融危机同时发生,人口付出了巨大代价。"

The report focused on total developed nation debt,which remained near the record levels reached in the aftermath of the global financial crisis,at around 265%of GDP in 2018,or$US130 trillion:"While government debt has risen,to a high of 104 per cent of GDP($US50 trillion),private sector debt has fallen slightly amid deleveraging in some sectors.Total debt has fallen since 2010 in two-fifths of advanced economies,"the report said.

这份报告的重点是发达国家的债务总额,2018年,发达国家的债务总额约为 GDP 265%,即130万亿美元,接近全球金融危机后达到的创纪录水平:"尽管政府债务已经上升,达到 GDP 104%(50万亿美元)的高点,但随着一些部门的去杠杆化,私营部门的债务略有下降。自2010年以来,五分之二的发达经济体的债务总额有所下降。"

Of course,none of this is new:the World Bank and the IMF-which on one hand have been enabling the world's rush into more debt-have paradoxically also been warning for some years about the build up of global debt since the GFC.

当然,这些都不是什么新鲜事:世界银行(World Bank)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)——它们一方面助长了全球债务的增长——多年来一直自相矛盾地就全球金融危机以来全球债务的累积发出警告。

Amusingly,according to some analysts,the World Bank report"has upped the pressure on governments to prevent another debt crisis"as it found that of 519 cases of debt surges in 100 emerging and developing countries since 1970 roughly half ended in financial crises.

有趣的是,一些分析师表示,世界银行的报告"加大了对各国政府的压力,要求它们防止另一场债务危机"。报告发现,自1970年以来,在100个新兴国家和发展中国家的519起债务激增事件中,约有一半以金融危机告终。

Malpass called on governments to improve management of their debts to lower borrowing costs and said both governments and creditors needed to be more transparent about loans.

马尔帕斯呼吁各国政府改善债务管理,以降低借贷成本,并表示政府和债权人都需要提高贷款透明度。

"Emerging and developing economies already are more vulnerable on a variety of fronts than they were ahead of the last crisis,"he said."75 per cent of them now have budget deficits,their foreign currency denominated corporate debt is significantly higher,and their current account deficits are four times as large as they were in 2007."Under these circumstances,a sudden rise in risk premiums could precipitate a financial crisis,as has happened many times in the past."

他表示:"与上次危机前相比,新兴和发展中经济体在许多方面已经更加脆弱。""其中75%的国家目前存在预算赤字,它们以外币计价的公司债务要高得多,经常账户赤字是2007年的4倍。"在这种情况下,风险溢价的突然上升可能会引发一场金融危机,这种情况在过去已多次发生。"

Which is why central banks can never allow a"sudden rise in risk premiums."

这就是为什么央行绝不能允许"风险溢价的突然上升"

Which is why interest rates can never be allowed to rise again.

这就是为什么不能允许利率再次上升。

Which is why the can must be kicked at all costs,and why debt growth will only accelerate.

这就是为什么必须不惜一切代价来解决这个问题,也是为什么债务增长只会加速。

Which is why the"really smart people"will keep repeating the same idiotic drivel until the next crisis finally hits.

这就是为什么"真正聪明的人"会不断重复同样愚蠢的胡言乱语,直到下一场危机最终来临。

Which is why the next crisis may be the last.

这就是为什么下一次危机可能是最后一次。

来源:https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world-bank-warns-wave-debt-could-unleash-historic-crisis-crush-global-economy?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

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