石油美元的终结

2020年4月24日08:11:04石油美元的终结已关闭评论 5904961字阅读16分32秒
摘要

首先,这个价格不是针对石油,而是针对期货。它们只意味着一件事:今天的产量是如此之高,以至于没有地方可以开采石油。由于疫情的蔓延,需求急剧下降,而生产却没有。与此同时,减少生产又困难又可怕,长期以来,政府一直在为此提供贷款,必须偿还贷款。特别是对于页岩生产商来说,他们必须不断钻探新油井以保持总体产量,因为他们的资本化(特别是信誉度)取决于此。然而钻井需要贷款。

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石油美元的终结

The fall of American WTI oil to negative values requires separate comments.I will try to give them.

美国西德克萨斯中质原油价格跌至负值需要单独评论,我会尽量给出评论。

First of all,this price is not for oil,but for futures.And they mean only one thing:today's production is such that there's nowhere to put this oil.Because of the epidemic,demand fell sharply,while production did not.At the same time,it is difficult and scary to reduce production,and loans have long been taken out for it,which must be paid back.Especially for shale producers,which must continuously drill new wells to maintain the total volume,because their capitalisation(and creditworthiness,in particular)depends on this.Whereas drilling needs loans.

首先,这个价格不是针对石油,而是针对期货。它们只意味着一件事:今天的产量是如此之高,以至于没有地方可以开采石油。由于疫情的蔓延,需求急剧下降,而生产却没有。与此同时,减少生产又困难又可怕,长期以来,政府一直在为此提供贷款,必须偿还贷款。特别是对于页岩生产商来说,他们必须不断钻探新油井以保持总体产量,因为他们的资本化(特别是信誉度)取决于此。然而钻井需要贷款。

As a result,the current negative prices are simply the cost for the tanks that those who simply extract oil should pour into.But for vertically integrated companies there is no such problem at all:they supply it to their own factories,which produce gasoline,oils,and plastic.And yes,they may suffer a little from today's stock exchange storm,but still,the technology complex is not going to go away.So those who wanted to hit the jackpot on the hype will mainly suffer.

因此,当前的负价格仅仅是那些只是简单开采石油的人应该注入的油罐的成本。但对于纵向一体化的公司来说,根本没有这样的问题:他们向自己的工厂供应汽油、油和塑料。是的,他们可能会受到今天股票交易风暴的一点影响,但是,科技综合体仍然不会消失。因此,那些希望在炒作中大赚一笔的人将主要遭受损失。

In reality,the price of Brent oil in Western Europe is higher today than it was a couple of weeks ago at a low of about$25 a barrel.So there's no hysteria here.And therefore,the result of today's bacchanalian prices will be a completely natural process:production will fall significantly in a couple of months.In particular,the whole shale adventure will close completely.

实际上,目前西欧布伦特(Brent)原油的价格高于几周前约每桶25美元的低点。所以这里没有歇斯底里。因此,今天的狂欢的价格将是一个完全自然的过程:产量将在几个月后大幅下降。特别是,整个页岩勘探将彻底结束。

It is necessary to note only two fundamental points.The first–the mechanism of oil pricing created by transnational banks has become so detached from the real industry and the real demand for oil products that it has collapsed due to purely internal(i.e.financial)mechanisms.And the main victims will not even be small oil and processing companies,but banks.Since their magic faded a lot,if it is already such an important market as the oil one,they cannot keep it in a stable state.

只需要注意两个基本要点。第一,跨国银行建立的石油定价机制与实际工业和对石油产品的实际需求如此脱节,以至于由于纯粹的内部(即金融)机制而崩溃。主要的受害者甚至不是小型石油和加工企业,而是银行。由于他们的魔力消失了很多,如果它已经是一个像石油一样重要的市场,他们就不能保持它的稳定状态。

As experienced people say,"the dollar is needed in the world to allow Saudi Arabia to sell oil to China".Or,for simplicity,the world is ruled by the petrodollar.So,this world,like the petrodollar,is over.And if it is over,if the capitalisation of oil companies returns to normal numbers related to profit,production,and reserves(roughly speaking,like Rosneft,not like Chevron),then it is not the oil companies that will lose,but the banks,which were the main beneficiaries of the process of increasing capitalisation.

正如经验丰富的人士所言,"世界需要美元,以允许沙特阿拉伯向中国出售石油"。或者,为了简单起见,世界由石油美元统治。所以,这个世界,就像石油美元一样,已经结束了。如果一切都结束了,如果石油公司的资本化恢复到与利润、产量和储量相关的正常水平(粗略地说,就像俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)和雪佛龙(Chevron)一样),那么损失的将不是石油公司,而是银行,它们是增加资本化进程的主要受益者。

And the beneficiaries from it,of course,will be consumers and Rosneft,which has never been"theirs"for international finance,and therefore was greatly losing to its main Western counterparts in terms of capitalisation.

当然,它的受益者将是消费者和俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)。在国际金融领域,俄罗斯从来不是"他们的",因此在资本化方面,该公司正大幅输给西方的主要对手。

And the second thing is no less important than the first thing.The current situation shows that there can be no single pricing in Western Europe and the United States.I.e.,prices will start to be determined in regional markets.Among other things,we mean the market that China controls.And it is clear why:I think that China is ready for a quite acceptable surcharge from the US to host excess oil.Only for the sake of environmental care,of course,Greta Thunberg will help the US.It's not entirely clear whether the US will agree to do this.And if they disagree,they will have to limit their influence on this market,with all that it implies.

第二件事和第一件事同样重要。目前的情况表明,在西欧和美国不可能有单一的定价。也就是说,价格将开始由区域市场决定。其中,我们指的是中国控制的市场。原因显而易见:我认为中国已经准备好接受美国为接收过剩石油而征收的相当可接受的附加费。当然,只有出于环保的考虑,Greta Thunberg 才会帮助美国。目前还不完全清楚美国是否会同意这样做。如果他们不同意,他们将不得不限制自己对这个市场的影响力,尽管这意味着什么。

But that means the petrodollar is over.And if there is no petrodollar,then there is no need for a single dollar system,and in regional markets oil will start to cost differently.I.e.,the mechanism that emerged in 1944 in the Western world at the Bretton Woods Conference and that spread to the whole world in 1991 no longer works.Yes,a new one is likely to appear a little later.In fact,that's why I started a year and a half ago talking not only about the"new Yalta",but also about the"new Bretton Woods".But now it is already clear what will appear.

但这意味着石油美元的时代已经结束。如果没有石油美元,那么就没有必要实行单一美元体系,而在地区市场,石油价格将开始出现不同。也就是说,1944年出现在西方世界的布雷顿森林会议,并在1991年传播到全世界的机制不再有效。是的,一个新的可能会稍后出现。事实上,这就是为什么我在一年半前开始不仅谈论"新雅尔塔",还谈论"新布雷顿森林体系"。但现在已经很清楚会出现什么情况。

So the negative price of oil futures in the US means nothing in itself.But it is a bright sign that the processes of destruction of the world dollar system that I have written about for many years have reached a certain scale because of which they have become visible to all.

因此,美国石油期货的负价格本身毫无意义。但是,这是一个明显的迹象,表明我多年来所描述的世界美元体系的破坏进程已经达到了一定的规模,因为它们已经成为所有人都能看到的东西。

来源:https://www.stalkerzone.org/the-end-of-the-petrodollar/

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  • 本文由 发表于 2020年4月24日08:11:04
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