我们现在在法国,西班牙,阿尔及利亚,伊拉克,黎巴嫩,埃及,Hong Kong,委内瑞拉,智利,厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚有大规模的公众骚乱

2019年10月29日15:04:31我们现在在法国,西班牙,阿尔及利亚,伊拉克,黎巴嫩,埃及,Hong Kong,委内瑞拉,智利,厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚有大规模的公众骚乱已关闭评论 7026600字阅读22分0秒


Ages and Ages of Rage


Monday morning and we here we go again for another"dramatic week".There are going to be monthly PMIs to look at in particular:will we see any further deterioration,or will growth start to pick up as an early Christmas present?And there are of course rate meetings for the Fed,and the BOJ,and the BOC:the former will cut,with the real issue being if they will signal more soon or not given they are already deep in Repo Madness;and will the giant BOJ wake up from slumber like a giant Kaiju and start throwing markets into turmoil again?


Plus there is the Brexit circus.Will the EU grant the UK an extension until end-January 2020,or a more flexible date,or will France veto that and insist on a very short extension?Almost certainly they will insist that the newly reopened Withdrawal Agreement is this time firmly shut–so if the British Parliament then decides to merrily reopen it from its end and unilaterally start ramming amendments into it,it will not be doing so with EU approval.As such,and just as pertinently,will PM BoJo get his December election or not?The greater likelihood is not,as Labour appears to be desperate for an election–just not now–although the Lib Dems may be prepared to allow one given they see this as a way to prevent any further movement towards Brexit in the short term.(Though what do they think the election campaign will be about?The price of cheese?)Note that the latest opinion poll for the Observer has the Tories on 40%(+3 on the week),Labour unchanged on 24%,and the Lib Dems on 15%(-1),with the Brexit Party on 10%(-2).

此外还有英国脱欧的闹剧。欧盟是否会同意英国延期至20201月底,或者给出一个更灵活的日期,还是法国会否决这一提议,坚持延期很短?几乎可以肯定,他们会坚持认为,这一次重新开放的撤军协议是坚定地关闭,因此,如果英国议会然后决定愉快地从它的结束重新开放,并单方面开始对它进行修正,它将不会这样做的欧盟批准。因此,恰如其分地说,首相 BoJo 能否在12月当选?更大的可能性并非如此,因为工党似乎迫切希望举行大选——只不过不是现在——尽管自由民主党可能准备允许举行大选,因为他们认为这是在短期内阻止任何进一步走向 Brexit 的一种方式。(尽管他们认为竞选活动将围绕什么展开?奶酪的价格?)请注意,《观察家报》最新的民意调查显示,保守党的支持率为40%(本周增加3%),工党的支持率为24%,自由民主党的支持率为15%(-1),英国脱欧党的支持率为10%(-2)

In Europe,we have just seen the AfD surge to second place in state elections in Germany's Thuringia with 24%of the vote,double what it got last time,putting it 1ppt ahead of Chancellor Merkel's CDU,with the Far Left Die Linke in first place.The AfD are nowhere near power as nobody will co-operate with them,but that 24%outcome is all the more remarkable given an attack on a synagogue and neo-Nazi death threats through the campaign.

在欧洲,我们刚刚看到德国选择与发展党以24%的得票率在 Thuringia 州选举中跃升至第二位,是上次得票率的两倍,领先于总理默克尔的基督教民主联盟1个百分点,最左翼党派"林克党"名列第一。德国选择党距离掌权还很遥远,因为没有人愿意与他们合作,但是考虑到针对犹太教堂的袭击和新纳粹主义者的死亡威胁,24%的选票结果就更加引人注目了。


On Ukraine-Gate the US impeachment wagon continues to trundle along,with supporters claiming it is laden with damning evidence,and opponents arguing it has exactly as much weight as Russia-Gate did.Perhaps the apparent elimination of IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by US special forces will tip the Washington political balance slightly back towards consensus…but perhaps not,as the Washington Post("Truth Dies in Darkness")changes its headline description of al-Baghdadi--who presided over torture,mass murder and rape,slavery,and genocide--from"Terrorist-in-chief"to"Austere Religious Scholar"and then finally to"Extremist Leader".Could they not perhaps have settled on"populist?",he wondered sarcastically?


Enough minutiae about Fed policy:our house view remains they are going all the way back to zero.Enough minutiae about PMIs:it is obvious that broad swathes of the economy are slowing down.

关于美联储政策的细枝末节已经够多了:我们的观点仍然是,它们将一直回到零。关于 pmi 的细枝末节已经够多了:很明显,大部分经济领域正在放缓。

The global backdrop remains of slowing growth,increased financial vulnerability in places,and yet an institutional architecture that is either in denial or has no firm idea of what policy mix to use to stop this happening.And,crucially,global populations that are not content to just sit and wait for something better to turn up eventually.


Indeed,consider that we now have mass public unrest(on and off)in:France,Spain,and that 24%AfD vote in Germany,and Brexit in the UK;Algeria;Iraq:Lebanon;Egypt;Russia;Hong Kong;Venezuela;Chile;Ecuador;and Bolivia.Plus deepening polarisation in the US–and one could add the middle-class disruption of Extinction Rebellion in Australia,Canada,and others.

事实上,考虑到我们现在有大规模的公众骚乱(断断续续):法国,西班牙,德国24%的选票,英国的 Brexit,阿尔及利亚,伊拉克:黎巴嫩,埃及,俄罗斯,Hong Kong,委内瑞拉,智利,厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚。此外,美国的两极分化正在加剧,澳大利亚、加拿大和其他国家的中产阶级也可能因为灭绝反抗运动而陷入混乱。

我们现在在法国,西班牙,阿尔及利亚,伊拉克,黎巴嫩,埃及,Hong Kong,委内瑞拉,智利,厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚有大规模的公众骚乱

In short,there isn't a continent that isn't seeing unrest in some form,and as Branko Milanovic notes today,one wonders if this isn't all a little 1968-ish.

简而言之,没有一个大陆不以某种形式出现动荡,正如布兰科米拉诺维奇(Branko Milanovic)我们现在在法国,西班牙,阿尔及利亚,伊拉克,黎巴嫩,埃及,Hong Kong,委内瑞拉,智利,厄瓜多尔和玻利维亚有大规模的公众骚乱

Of course,one can't usually join dots that simply,but if this is 1968-redux then consider the historical echoes.The Prague Spring was violently crushed by Soviet Tanks and the West was powerless to prevent it.Meanwhile,student uprisings in the West produced social reforms and a policy swing to the Left.Along with the Vietnam War,that contributed to the end of the USD peg to gold and the first phase of the global Bretton Woods order–and then to very high inflation in the 1970s,which was ultimately ended by the Volcker Fed and the current phase of deflationary neoliberal globalisation that is once again pushing people out onto the streets.


In short,regardless of what the Fed does this week,or the BOJ;and whatever the PMIs print at;and whatever the EU or Boris give and get,we still face Ages and Ages of Rage in a market that is still largely pricing for the calm of the status quo ante.

简而言之,不管美联储本周做了什么,或日本央行做了什么,不管 pmi 指数是多少,也不管欧盟或鲍里斯做了什么,我们仍然面临着愤怒的年代和时代,而这个市场在很大程度上仍然定价为维持现状的平静。



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