特朗普能否成功结束叙利亚计划?

2019年10月23日07:45:05特朗普能否成功结束叙利亚计划?已关闭评论 273 8618字阅读28分43秒
摘要

事情发生在可怕的星期二,特朗普和英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)都因为他们一方面要放弃数十年的侵略性外交政策,另一方面又要屈从于日益壮大的欧盟(European Union)的计划而遭到各自的”深国”(Deep States)的抨击。


From the moment that Speaker Nancy Pelosi(D-Davos)announced reluctantly that impeachment proceedings would begin against President Trump I knew this was about his shift in Middle East policy.

从众议院议长南希·佩洛西(民主达沃斯)不情愿地宣布弹劾特朗普总统的程序开始的那一刻起,我就知道这与他在中东政策上的转变有关。

It happened on Terrible Tuesday where both Trump and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson were handed smackdowns by their respective Deep States over their plans to unwind multiple decades of aggressive foreign policy on the one hand and subjugation to the growing European Union on the other.

事情发生在可怕的星期二,特朗普和英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)都因为他们一方面要放弃数十年的侵略性外交政策,另一方面又要屈从于日益壮大的欧盟(European Union)的计划而遭到各自的"深国"(Deep States)的抨击。

Now that Trump has fully embraced ending some of the US's involvement in Syria the knives have come out in full.There have been nothing but howls of pain from every corner of neoconservatism and liberal interventionism on both sides of the domestic political aisle,about how Trump is unfit for office because he abandoned the heroic Kurds to genocide by the Turks after fighting for freedom against the brutal Bashar al-Assad.

既然特朗普已经完全接受结束美国对叙利亚的一些干涉,那么这些刀子已经全部出来了。在国内政坛的两派中,新保守主义和自由干涉主义的每一个角落都充斥着痛苦的嚎叫,关于特朗普如何不适合担任总统,因为他在与残暴的巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)争取自由之后,抛弃了英勇的库尔德人,让土耳其人进行种族灭绝。

Even the impressive Tulsi Gabbard(D-HI)promoted this narrative at the recent Democratic debate.

甚至令人印象深刻的塔尔西盖博德(tulsigabbard)也在最近的民主党辩论中宣扬了这种说法。

This narrative is so wrong on so many levels that it amazes me anyone still promulgating it can do so without their brain seizing up from the cognitive dissonance.

这种说法在很多层面上都是错误的,以至于让我感到惊讶的是,仍然有人宣扬这种说法,而且他们的大脑还没有从认知失调那里停止工作。

The Kurds were mercenaries in a cynical multi-country operation to atomize Syria into a failed state,a la the Libya model which John Bolton threatened North Korea with(and led to the public reason for his firing).This atomization would have seen Turkey take Idlib and the north eastern Arab lands its moving into now,the Kurds get a country comprised of Southeastern Syria and Northern Iraq with the eventual annexation of Kurdish territory in Iran.

库尔德人是一群唯利是图的雇佣兵,他们的目的是将叙利亚分裂成一个失败的国家,就像约翰博尔顿(John Bolton)用来威胁朝鲜的利比亚模式(并导致他被解雇的公开原因)。这种原子化可能会导致土耳其占领伊德利卜,东北部的阿拉伯土地现在进入,库尔德人得到一个由叙利亚东南部和伊拉克北部组成的国家,最终并吞伊朗的库尔德领土。

This operation was paid for by the US,Saudi Arabia,Israel,the UK as well as sanctioned by EU leadership in Paris and Berlin.Russia's intervention put the kibosh on all of it and the alliance formed in Syria's defense between it,China,Hezbollah and Iran not only won back most of the country over the past four years but also defeated the Iraqi Kurds at Erbil after a failed rebellion by Mamoud Barzani and his Peshmerga forces.

此次行动由美国、沙特阿拉伯、以色列和英国支付,并得到了欧盟领导人在巴黎和柏林的批准。俄罗斯的干预使得叙利亚所有的努力都泡汤了,中国、真主党和伊朗在保卫叙利亚方面形成的联盟不仅在过去四年里赢回了叙利亚大部分地区,而且在马穆德·巴尔扎尼及其自由斗士的叛乱失败后,在 Erbil 击败了伊拉克库尔德人。

Once Aleppo was retaken,Raqqa demolished,and the Peshmerga defeated the Kurds'fate was sealed.The past two and a half years have been nothing more than delaying actions against the day that Trump finally gained control over the White House insurrections amongst his staff and ordered the operation ended.

一旦阿勒颇被夺回,拉卡就被摧毁,自由斗士打败库尔德人的命运也就注定了。在过去的两年半里,特朗普最终控制了手下的白宫起义,并下令终止行动。

Trump ordering US troops out of the region put the Kurds on notice that they either make a deal with Russia and the Syrian government or get slaughtered by the Turks.That took all of a day.

特朗普命令美军撤出该地区,这让库尔德人意识到,他们要么与俄罗斯和叙利亚政府达成协议,要么被土耳其人屠杀。那花了一整天的时间。

It also,as the great Pat Buchanan points out in his latest article,put the Saudis on notice that they no longer set US foreign policy objectives because they sell their oil in dollars and splash some money around D.C.and the media.

正如伟大的帕特·布坎南在他最新的文章中指出的那样,这也让沙特注意到,他们不再设定美国的外交政策目标,因为他们以美元出售石油,并在华盛顿特区和媒体上大肆挥霍。

Their bloodthirst for war with Iran can be done on their dime or not at all.

他们对与伊朗开战的嗜血可以用他们的钱来解决,也可以不用。

The most shocking part in all of this is Trump just made the same statement to,of all people,Israel.

最令人震惊的是,特朗普刚刚对以色列发表了同样的声明。

And that's where the highest concentration of anguish is coming from in the media and elsewhere.

这就是痛苦最集中的地方,来自媒体和其他地方。

Finally,a Republican president had the stones to call AIPAC's bluff and stop kowtowing to them over their highly sought-after election funds.Trump doesn't need AIPAC's money anymore.He raised$125 million in Q3 and with these moves will likely raise more in Q4.

最后,一位共和党总统有胆量要美国以色列公共事务委员会虚张声势,不再因为他们备受追捧的选举基金而向他们卑躬屈膝。特朗普不再需要美国公共事务委员会的钱了。他在第三季度筹集了1.25亿美元,这些举措可能会在第四季度筹集更多资金。

His firing John Bolton was the clue you needed that AIPAC and Sheldon Adelson were no longer important voices in Trump's White House.He doesn't need favorable media coverage from a media dominated by Saudi and Israeli money.

他解雇约翰·博尔顿是你需要的线索,因为美国以色列公共事务委员会和谢尔登·埃德森已经不再是特朗普白宫里重要的声音了。他不需要一个由沙特和以色列资金主导的媒体的有利报道。

It's not like he's gotten good press from them on any consistent basis since 2015.He only gets that when he's willing to bomb people in the name of their agendas and call it'freedom.'

2015年以来,他并没有从他们那里得到任何持续的好消息。只有当他愿意以人们议程的名义轰炸他们,并称之为"自由"时,他才能得到这些

But at the same time,he made powerful enemies doing so.

但与此同时,他也树立了强大的敌人。

This was finally the right move made by a US president standing firm in front of oppressive political and media opposition.Trump is showing a strength we haven't seen since Ronald Reagan pulled troops out of Beirut after the massacre of more than 200 marines in 1983.

这终于是一位美国总统在压迫性的政治和媒体反对面前所采取的正确举措。自从1983年罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)在贝鲁特屠杀了200多名海军陆战队士兵之后,特朗普展现出了我们从未见过的力量。

That he didn't immediately cave to the pressure like he did in December is noteworthy.I've given Trump no end of grief over his lack of moral courage on this very issue,but now that he's been unleashed by the move to impeach him,he has little left to lose.

值得注意的是,他没有像去年12月那样立即屈服于压力。我一直在为特朗普在这个问题上缺乏道德勇气而感到悲伤,但现在他已经被弹劾他的行动释放出来了,他已经没有什么可失去的了。

It proves that changing personnel can change policy.John Bolton is out and he's running his mouth about how terrible Trump is trying to become the Hero of the Resistance in the process.

事实证明,人事变动可以改变政策。约翰·博尔顿(John Bolton)出局了,他一直在说特朗普在这个过程中试图成为抵抗组织的英雄是多么可怕。

He and former Trump adviser on Russia,Fiona Hill,dominated the news cycle in the wake of the Kurds making a deal with Syria and Russia,to paint Trump with the Nixon brush of spying on his political enemies.

在库尔德人与叙利亚和俄罗斯达成协议之后,他和特朗普的前俄罗斯问题顾问菲奥娜·希尔(Fiona Hill)主导了新闻周期,把特朗普描绘成尼克松式的监视政敌。

Meanwhile,his replacement Robert O'Brien is gutting the National Security bureaucracy,reportedly cutting the staff in half.Good.That's more than a hundred people no longer employed to feed the president false information to suit an agenda that contravenes US security.

与此同时,他的继任者罗伯特奥布莱恩(Robert O'Brien)正在削减国家安全局的官僚机构,据报道,他将裁员一半。很好。这意味着超过100人不再受雇为总统提供虚假信息,以迎合违反美国安全的议程。

These moves by Trump have upset the status quo in a fundamental way.It has blown up the narrative that we were in Syria to defeat ISIS.That was the cover story.And Trump has neatly called it out for exactly that.

特朗普的这些举动从根本上打破了现状。它粉碎了我们在叙利亚是为了打败 ISIS 的说法。那只是个幌子。而特朗普恰恰就是这么说的。

The real story is that partitioning Syria has been the long-held goal of Israel,the neoconservatives,PNAC and so many others.And that goal is now looking to be out of reach lest they can convict Trump for doing his job for the first time since he became President.

真实的情况是,分裂叙利亚一直是以色列、新保守主义者、PNAC 和其他许多国家长期以来的目标。现在看来,这个目标遥不可及,唯恐他们会因为特朗普就任总统以来第一次履行职责而判他有罪。

With the rapid changes happening across the region and the collapse of so many narratives concurrently,Trump is in an excellent position to make good on many of his long-delayed promises.

随着整个地区发生的迅速变化,以及如此多的叙事同时崩溃,特朗普处于一个绝佳的位置,可以兑现他拖延已久的许多承诺。

What's also clear is that Putin has played everyone in the region perfectly,balancing his relationships with Turkey,Saudi Arabia and Israel so that once Trump made his move to pull back the curtain in Syria,they would all turn to him to broker their terms.

同样清楚的是,普京把该地区的每个人都玩得很好,平衡了自己与土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和以色列的关系,因此,一旦特朗普采取行动,拉开叙利亚的帷幕,他们都会求助于他,从中斡旋。

What's also clear is that any move he makes now will be interpreted through the impeachment lens as proof he's trying to save himself or that he really is a Putin puppet or whatever random anti-Trump thought flits through the tiny openings in the minds of his opponents.

同样清楚的是,他现在的任何举动都会被弹劾镜头解读为他试图拯救自己的证据,或者他真的是普京的傀儡,或者任何反特朗普的随机想法在他的对手的脑海中掠过微小的空隙。

Trump has stepped on sacred ground here,US interventionist foreign policy.And,right now,only he has the platform and the ability to separate fact from fiction about its efficacy and who it really serves.

特朗普踏上了美国干涉主义外交政策的圣地。而且,现在,只有他有这个平台和能力来区分事实和虚构的功效,以及它真正为谁服务。

Because it doesn't serve the American people,nor does it serve the people our continued presence is supposed to protect.Trump won't come out and say that he's turned his back on Israel's goals in the Middle East.But with his Deal of the Century dead,its proponents on their last legs politically(Netanyahu and Kushner)it seems likely that he's cutting bait and changing course.

因为它不为美国人民服务,也不为我们继续存在应该保护的人民服务。特朗普不会站出来说他背弃了以色列在中东的目标。但随着他的《世纪协议》(Deal of the Century)的夭折,其支持者在政治上已奄奄一息(内塔尼亚胡和库什纳),他似乎正在放弃诱饵,改弦易辙。

And even if he doesn't survive this politically,the vacuum he's creating right now is big enough that it won't matter.With Putin signing major deals with Saudi Arabia and the UAE,China welcoming Iraq into the Belt and Road family and Turkey all but leaving NATO,what are a bunch of feckless and politically spent neocons going to do?

即使他在政治上不能幸免于难,他现在正在创造的真空已经大到无关紧要的地步。随着普京与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋签署重要协议,中国欢迎伊拉克加入一带一路大家庭,土耳其几乎要离开北约,一群软弱无能、政治上花费巨大的新保守主义者会怎么做?

Not much from where I'm sitting.

离我坐的地方不远。

Tom Luongo is an independent political and economic analyst based in North Florida,USA.

Tom Luongo 是美国北佛罗里达州的一位独立的政治和经济分析家。

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/10/21/can-trump-survive-ending-project-syria/

来源:https://geopolitics.co/2019/10/22/can-trump-survive-ending-project-syria/

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