2020年8月15日08:05:43瑞典遭遇新型冠状病毒肺炎“三重打击”:没有停工,死亡率低,经济损失微乎其微已关闭评论 4586259字阅读20分51秒


Perhaps the biggest example of the Western media's inherent biases surrounding its coverage of Sweden's approach to tackling COVID-19.Plenty of media outlets decried the country's"massive"fatality rate compared to its lockdown-favoring neighbors,but failed to add the context necessary to see that the difference was only a couple thousand deaths,and that Sweden's per capita mortality rate was still lower than Britain's,and other countries that favored lockdowns.


When Anders Tegnell,the architect of Sweden's strategy,said during an interview that he would have done things"differently"if given a second chance,the Western press,including the NYT,rushed to frame this as an admission of guilt for failing to order the types of restrictive lockdowns seen in other European countries.Tegnell later clarified that this isn't what he meant at all.

当瑞典战略的设计师安德斯·特格内尔(Anders Tegnell)在接受采访时表示,如果再给他一次机会,他会采取"不同的"做法时,包括《纽约时报》在内的西方媒体纷纷将此事描述为承认自己没有像其他欧洲国家那样下令实施限制性封锁。泰格内尔后来澄清说,这根本不是他的意思。

What's more,in Sweden,deaths have declined nearly to zero.And since the country's economy has remained open this whole time,there's little risk of resurgence when whatever minimal restrictions are still in place are finally lifted.



In a column published Thursday,The Telegraph's Allister Heath argued that Sweden's success at fighting the virus while minimizing economic damage elucidates the depth of the British medical establishment's incompetence,as it was Britain's health experts whose advice PM Johnson assiduously followed.


Read an excerpt from the column below(courtesy of the Telegraph):


So now we know:Sweden got it largely right,and the British establishment catastrophically wrong.Anders Tegnell,Stockholm's epidemiologist-king,has pulled off a remarkable triple whammy:far fewer deaths per capita than Britain,a maintenance of basic freedoms and opportunities,including schooling,and,most strikingly,a recession less than half as severe as our own.

所以现在我们知道:瑞典在很大程度上是正确的,而英国当权派却是灾难性的错误。斯德哥尔摩的流行病学之王安德斯·特格内尔(Anders Tegnell)实现了一个令人瞩目的三重打击:人均死亡人数远低于英国,基本自由和机会(包括受教育机会)得以维持,最引人注目的是,经济衰退的严重程度还不到英国的一半。

Our arrogant quangocrats and state"experts"should hang their heads in shame:their reaction to coronavirus was one of the greatest public policy blunders in modern history,more severe even than Iraq,Afghanistan,the financial crisis,Suez or the ERM fiasco.Millions will lose their jobs when furlough ends;tens of thousands of small businesses are failing;schooling is in chaos,with A-level grades all over the place;vast numbers are likely to die from untreated or undetected illnesses;and we have seen the first exodus of foreigners in years,with the labour market survey suggesting a decline in non-UK born adults.

我们傲慢的全政府官员和国家"专家"应该感到羞愧:他们对冠状病毒的反应是现代历史上最大的公共政策失误之一,甚至比伊拉克、阿富汗、金融危机、苏伊士运河危机或欧洲汇率机制的惨败还要严重。当休假结束时,数以百万计的人将失去工作;数以万计的小企业正在倒闭;学校教育陷入混乱,到处都是 a 级成绩;大量人可能死于未经治疗或未被发现的疾病;多年来,我们已经看到外国人第一次外流,劳动力市场调查显示,非英国出生的成年人数量有所下降。

Pandemics always come with large economic and social costs,for reasons of altruism as well as of self-interest.The only way to contain the spread of a deadly,contagious disease,in the absence of a cure or vaccine,is to social distance;fear and panic inevitably kick in,as the public desperately seeks to avoid catching the virus.A"voluntary"recession is almost guaranteed.


But if a drop in GDP is unavoidable,governments can influence its size and scale.Politicians can react in one of three ways to a pandemic.They can do nothing,and allow the disease to rip until herd immunity is reached.Quite rightly,no government has pursued this policy,out of fear of mass deaths and total social and economic collapse.

但是,如果 GDP 下降是不可避免的,政府可以影响其规模和范围。政治家可以用三种方式中的一种来应对流行病。它们无能为力,任由疾病肆虐,直到达到群体免疫力。没有一个政府出于对大规模死亡和社会经济全面崩溃的担忧而推行这一政策,这是非常正确的。

The second approach involves imposing proportionate restrictions to facilitate social distancing,banning certain sorts of gatherings while encouraging and informing the public.The Swedes pursued a version of this centrist strategy:there was a fair bit of compulsion,but also a focus on retaining normal life and keeping schools open.The virus was taken very seriously,but there was no formal lockdown.Tegnell is one of the few genuine heroes of this crisis:he identified the correct trade-offs.


The third option is the full-on statist approach,which imposes a legally binding lockdown and shuts down society.Such a blunderbuss approach may be right under certain circumstances–if a vaccine is imminent–or for some viruses–for example,if we are ever hit with one that targets children and comes with a much higher fatality rate–but the latest economic and mortality statistics suggest this wasn't so for Covid-19.


Almost all economists thought that Sweden's economy would suffer hugely from its idiosyncratic strategy.They were wrong.Sweden's GDP fell by just 8.6 per cent in the first half of the year,all in the second quarter,and its excess deaths jumped 24 per cent.A big part of Sweden's recession was caused by a slump in demand for its exports from its fully locked-down neighbours.One could speculate that had all countries pursued a Swedish-style strategy,the economic hit could have been worth no more than 3-4 per cent of GDP.That could be seen as the core cost of the virus under a sensible policy reaction.

几乎所有的经济学家都认为,瑞典的特殊战略将给该国经济带来巨大损失。他们错了。今年上半年,瑞典的国内生产总值(GDP)仅下降了8.6%,这些数据都出现在第二季度,而瑞典的超额死亡人数则激增了24%。瑞典经济衰退的很大一部分原因是其完全封闭的邻国对其出口的需求暴跌。人们可以推测,如果所有国家都采取瑞典式的战略,经济受到的冲击可能不会超过 GDP 3%4%。在明智的政策反应下,这可以被视为该病毒的核心成本。

By contrast,Britain's economy slumped by 22.2 per cent in the first half of the year,a performance almost three times as bad as Sweden's,and its excess deaths shot up by 45 per cent.Spain's national income slumped even more(22.7 per cent),and France's(down 18.9 per cent)and Italy's(down 17.1 per cent)slightly less,but all three also suffered far greater per capita excess deaths than Sweden.The Swedes allowed the virus to spread in care homes,so if that major failure had been fixed,their death rate could have been a lot lower still.







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