瑞典遭遇新型冠状病毒肺炎“三重打击”:没有停工,死亡率低,经济损失微乎其微

2020年8月15日08:05:43瑞典遭遇新型冠状病毒肺炎“三重打击”:没有停工,死亡率低,经济损失微乎其微已关闭评论 4656259字阅读20分51秒
摘要

这也许是西方媒体对瑞典处理新型冠状病毒肺炎问题的报道存在固有偏见的最大例证。许多媒体谴责了这个国家的”大规模”死亡率,与其偏爱封锁的邻国相比,但是没有提供必要的背景来看到这个差别只有几千人死亡,而且瑞典的人均死亡率仍然低于英国和其他支持封锁的国家。

Perhaps the biggest example of the Western media's inherent biases surrounding its coverage of Sweden's approach to tackling COVID-19.Plenty of media outlets decried the country's"massive"fatality rate compared to its lockdown-favoring neighbors,but failed to add the context necessary to see that the difference was only a couple thousand deaths,and that Sweden's per capita mortality rate was still lower than Britain's,and other countries that favored lockdowns.

这也许是西方媒体对瑞典处理新型冠状病毒肺炎问题的报道存在固有偏见的最大例证。许多媒体谴责了这个国家的"大规模"死亡率,与其偏爱封锁的邻国相比,但是没有提供必要的背景来看到这个差别只有几千人死亡,而且瑞典的人均死亡率仍然低于英国和其他支持封锁的国家。

When Anders Tegnell,the architect of Sweden's strategy,said during an interview that he would have done things"differently"if given a second chance,the Western press,including the NYT,rushed to frame this as an admission of guilt for failing to order the types of restrictive lockdowns seen in other European countries.Tegnell later clarified that this isn't what he meant at all.

当瑞典战略的设计师安德斯·特格内尔(Anders Tegnell)在接受采访时表示,如果再给他一次机会,他会采取"不同的"做法时,包括《纽约时报》在内的西方媒体纷纷将此事描述为承认自己没有像其他欧洲国家那样下令实施限制性封锁。泰格内尔后来澄清说,这根本不是他的意思。

What's more,in Sweden,deaths have declined nearly to zero.And since the country's economy has remained open this whole time,there's little risk of resurgence when whatever minimal restrictions are still in place are finally lifted.

更重要的是,在瑞典,死亡人数几乎降至零。由于这个国家的经济一直保持开放,当最低限度的限制最终被取消时,复苏的风险很小。

瑞典遭遇新型冠状病毒肺炎“三重打击”:没有停工,死亡率低,经济损失微乎其微

In a column published Thursday,The Telegraph's Allister Heath argued that Sweden's success at fighting the virus while minimizing economic damage elucidates the depth of the British medical establishment's incompetence,as it was Britain's health experts whose advice PM Johnson assiduously followed.

在周四发表的一篇专栏文章中,《每日电讯报》的阿利斯特·希思认为,瑞典在抗击病毒同时尽量减少经济损失方面的成功说明了英国医疗机构无能的程度,正如英国卫生专家的建议一样,约翰逊首相孜孜不倦地遵循着这些建议。

Read an excerpt from the column below(courtesy of the Telegraph):

请阅读以下专栏摘录(由《每日电讯报》提供):

So now we know:Sweden got it largely right,and the British establishment catastrophically wrong.Anders Tegnell,Stockholm's epidemiologist-king,has pulled off a remarkable triple whammy:far fewer deaths per capita than Britain,a maintenance of basic freedoms and opportunities,including schooling,and,most strikingly,a recession less than half as severe as our own.

所以现在我们知道:瑞典在很大程度上是正确的,而英国当权派却是灾难性的错误。斯德哥尔摩的流行病学之王安德斯·特格内尔(Anders Tegnell)实现了一个令人瞩目的三重打击:人均死亡人数远低于英国,基本自由和机会(包括受教育机会)得以维持,最引人注目的是,经济衰退的严重程度还不到英国的一半。

Our arrogant quangocrats and state"experts"should hang their heads in shame:their reaction to coronavirus was one of the greatest public policy blunders in modern history,more severe even than Iraq,Afghanistan,the financial crisis,Suez or the ERM fiasco.Millions will lose their jobs when furlough ends;tens of thousands of small businesses are failing;schooling is in chaos,with A-level grades all over the place;vast numbers are likely to die from untreated or undetected illnesses;and we have seen the first exodus of foreigners in years,with the labour market survey suggesting a decline in non-UK born adults.

我们傲慢的全政府官员和国家"专家"应该感到羞愧:他们对冠状病毒的反应是现代历史上最大的公共政策失误之一,甚至比伊拉克、阿富汗、金融危机、苏伊士运河危机或欧洲汇率机制的惨败还要严重。当休假结束时,数以百万计的人将失去工作;数以万计的小企业正在倒闭;学校教育陷入混乱,到处都是 a 级成绩;大量人可能死于未经治疗或未被发现的疾病;多年来,我们已经看到外国人第一次外流,劳动力市场调查显示,非英国出生的成年人数量有所下降。

Pandemics always come with large economic and social costs,for reasons of altruism as well as of self-interest.The only way to contain the spread of a deadly,contagious disease,in the absence of a cure or vaccine,is to social distance;fear and panic inevitably kick in,as the public desperately seeks to avoid catching the virus.A"voluntary"recession is almost guaranteed.

出于利他主义和利己主义的原因,流行病总是伴随着巨大的经济和社会代价。在没有治疗方法或疫苗的情况下,控制致命的接触传染病病毒传播的唯一方法就是与社会保持距离;当公众拼命地寻求避免感染病毒时,恐惧和恐慌不可避免地开始了。"自愿"衰退几乎是必然的。

But if a drop in GDP is unavoidable,governments can influence its size and scale.Politicians can react in one of three ways to a pandemic.They can do nothing,and allow the disease to rip until herd immunity is reached.Quite rightly,no government has pursued this policy,out of fear of mass deaths and total social and economic collapse.

但是,如果 GDP 下降是不可避免的,政府可以影响其规模和范围。政治家可以用三种方式中的一种来应对流行病。它们无能为力,任由疾病肆虐,直到达到群体免疫力。没有一个政府出于对大规模死亡和社会经济全面崩溃的担忧而推行这一政策,这是非常正确的。

The second approach involves imposing proportionate restrictions to facilitate social distancing,banning certain sorts of gatherings while encouraging and informing the public.The Swedes pursued a version of this centrist strategy:there was a fair bit of compulsion,but also a focus on retaining normal life and keeping schools open.The virus was taken very seriously,but there was no formal lockdown.Tegnell is one of the few genuine heroes of this crisis:he identified the correct trade-offs.

第二种方法包括施加相称的限制,以促进社会距离,禁止某些类型的集会,同时鼓励和告知公众。瑞典人追求的是这种中间派策略的一个版本:有一点强制性,但也注重保持正常的生活和学校的开放。病毒被严肃对待,但是没有正式的封锁。泰格内尔是这场危机中为数不多的真正的英雄之一:他确定了正确的权衡。

The third option is the full-on statist approach,which imposes a legally binding lockdown and shuts down society.Such a blunderbuss approach may be right under certain circumstances–if a vaccine is imminent–or for some viruses–for example,if we are ever hit with one that targets children and comes with a much higher fatality rate–but the latest economic and mortality statistics suggest this wasn't so for Covid-19.

第三种选择是全面的中央集权方法,它强制实行具有法律约束力的封锁并关闭社会。在某些情况下,如果疫苗迫在眉睫,或者对某些病毒来说,如果我们曾经被一种针对儿童的疫苗击中,并伴随着更高的死亡率,那么这种大口径的方法可能是正确的。但是最新的经济和死亡率统计数据表明,21新型冠状病毒肺炎的情况并非如此。

Almost all economists thought that Sweden's economy would suffer hugely from its idiosyncratic strategy.They were wrong.Sweden's GDP fell by just 8.6 per cent in the first half of the year,all in the second quarter,and its excess deaths jumped 24 per cent.A big part of Sweden's recession was caused by a slump in demand for its exports from its fully locked-down neighbours.One could speculate that had all countries pursued a Swedish-style strategy,the economic hit could have been worth no more than 3-4 per cent of GDP.That could be seen as the core cost of the virus under a sensible policy reaction.

几乎所有的经济学家都认为,瑞典的特殊战略将给该国经济带来巨大损失。他们错了。今年上半年,瑞典的国内生产总值(GDP)仅下降了8.6%,这些数据都出现在第二季度,而瑞典的超额死亡人数则激增了24%。瑞典经济衰退的很大一部分原因是其完全封闭的邻国对其出口的需求暴跌。人们可以推测,如果所有国家都采取瑞典式的战略,经济受到的冲击可能不会超过 GDP 3%4%。在明智的政策反应下,这可以被视为该病毒的核心成本。

By contrast,Britain's economy slumped by 22.2 per cent in the first half of the year,a performance almost three times as bad as Sweden's,and its excess deaths shot up by 45 per cent.Spain's national income slumped even more(22.7 per cent),and France's(down 18.9 per cent)and Italy's(down 17.1 per cent)slightly less,but all three also suffered far greater per capita excess deaths than Sweden.The Swedes allowed the virus to spread in care homes,so if that major failure had been fixed,their death rate could have been a lot lower still.

相比之下,英国经济在今年上半年下滑了22.2%,表现几乎是瑞典的三倍,死亡人数激增45%。西班牙的国民收入下降幅度更大(22.7%),法国(下降18.9%)和意大利(下降17.1%)略小,但这三国的人均超额死亡率也远高于瑞典。瑞典人允许这种病毒在养老院里传播,所以如果这个主要问题得到解决,他们的死亡率可能会低得多。

***

Source:Telegraph

来源:每日电讯

来源:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sweden-hit-rare-covid-triple-whammy-no-lockdowns-low-deaths-minimal-economic-damage

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  • 本文由 发表于 2020年8月15日08:05:43
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