Without imposing any lockdowns or draconian restrictions on citizens,Sweden has attained a greater immunity than any other country and is estimated to achieve herd immunity to Covid-19 within three weeks.
在没有对公民实施任何封锁或严格限制的情况下，瑞典已经获得了比其他任何国家更大的免疫力，估计在三周内可以获得对新型冠状病毒肺炎的群体免疫力。
Swedish officials have recommended since the outbreak began that residents of the country limit contact with others whenever possible and wash their hands regularly.
自疫情爆发以来，瑞典官员一直建议该国居民尽可能限制与他人接触，并经常洗手。
Since then,the virus has mostly affected nursing homes for the elderly,the population that Swedish officials most want to protect.
从那时起，这种病毒主要影响到老年人疗养院，瑞典官员最希望保护的人群。
"In major parts of Sweden,around Stockholm,we have reached a plateau(in new cases)and we're already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks'time we'll see even more of the effects of that.And in the rest of the country,the situation is stable."–Dr.Anders Tengell,Chief Epidemiologist at Sweden's Public Health Agency.
"在瑞典的大部分地区，在斯德哥尔摩周围，我们已经达到了一个平稳期(在新病例中)，我们已经看到了群体免疫的影响，在几周内，我们将看到更多的影响。而在美国其它地区，情况是稳定的。"年的今天，瑞典公共卫生署首席流行病学家安德斯·腾格尔博士。
Although some restrictions have been placed on Swedish citizens such as a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people,Swedes have mostly relied on the voluntary efforts of others to wash their hands and practice social distancing.
尽管对瑞典公民施加了一些限制，比如禁止50人以上的集会，但瑞典人主要依靠他人自愿的努力来洗手和疏远社会。
However,death tolls have been higher in Sweden than other nearby countries,such as Finland,Denmark,and Norway.It is unclear if this is because of their loose restrictions,immigration policies,or simply bad luck.
然而，瑞典的死亡人数比邻近的其他国家，如芬兰、丹麦和挪威要高。目前还不清楚这是因为他们宽松的限制，移民政策，还是纯粹的运气不好。
Most deaths have occurred in nursing homes and among the recent influx of African and Middle Eastern migrants who in just a few years have become about 25%of the total population.
大多数死亡发生在疗养院，在最近涌入的非洲和中东移民中，他们在短短几年内已经成为总人口的25%。
"The death toll is very closely related to elderly care homes.More than half of the people that have died have lived in elderly care homes…It's the group we said we needed to protect,"said Tengell.
「死亡人数与安老院舍息息相关。」。超过一半的死者住在养老院里......我们说我们需要保护这个群体，"腾格尔说。
Professor Johan Giesecke,the senior epidemiologist and advisor to the director general of the World Health Organization(WHO)and the Swedish government,who originally hired Anders Tengell,argues that worldwide lockdowns are being implemented without any real evidence that they are effective.
最初雇佣安德斯·腾格尔的世界卫生组织(WHO)和瑞典政府总干事的高级流行病学家和顾问约翰·吉塞克教授认为，在没有任何实际证据证明这些措施有效的情况下，全球范围的封锁正在实施。
"The Swedish government decided early in January that the measures we take against the pandemic should be evidence-based and when you start looking around for the measures that are being taken now by different countries you find that very few of them have a shred of evidence."–Johan Giesecke
"瑞典政府在一月初决定，我们采取的应对流感大流行的措施应该以证据为基础，当你开始寻找不同国家正在采取的措施时，你会发现很少有哪怕一丁点的证据。"-Johan Giesecke
Pandemic models for the United States originally predicted as many as several hundred thousand deaths by August,but those numbers have been continuously reduced to only 60,145 as their predicted death counts have not happened.
美国的大流行病模型最初预测到8月份会有多达数十万人死亡，但是由于预测的死亡人数没有发生，这些数字已经不断减少到只有60,145人。
Because of the harm these failed Center for Disease Control(CDC)and WHO models have done to the US economy,the United States coronavirus task force has recently dropped them in favor of real data and as a result are planning to reopen the country in May and June.
由于这些失败的疾病控制中心(CDC)和世卫组织模型对美国经济造成的伤害，美国冠状病毒工作组最近放弃了这些模型，转而采用真实数据，因此计划在5月和6月重新开放美国。
"Models for infectious disease spread are very popular…They are good for teaching,seldom tell you the truth…Which model could have assumed that the outbreak would start in northern Italy?…[Models]are based on assumptions,and those assumptions should by highly criticized."–Johan Giesecke
"传染病传播模型非常流行......它们有利于教学，[但]很少告诉你真相......哪种模型可以假定疫情会在意大利北部爆发？(模型)是建立在假设的基础上的，这些假设应该受到高度批评。"-Johan Giesecke
The current number of deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden is 1,937,or 192 deaths per million people.
目前，瑞典新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡人数为1937人，即每百万人中有192人死亡。
Why lockdowns are the wrong policy–Swedish expert Prof.Johan Giesecke
为什么封锁是错误的政策-瑞典专家约翰吉塞克教授
That was one of the more extraordinary interviews we have done here at UnHerd.
这是我们在 UnHerd 做过的最特别的采访之一。
Professor Johan Giesecke,one of the world's most senior epidemiologists,advisor to the Swedish Government(he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy),the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control,and an advisor to the director general of the WHO,lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:
约翰·吉塞克教授是世界上最资深的流行病学家之一，也是瑞典政府的顾问(他聘请了安德斯·泰格内尔，目前负责瑞典的战略)，他是欧洲疾病预防和控制中心的首席科学家，也是世界卫生组织总干事的顾问，他以典型的瑞典式的直率阐述了为什么他会这样想:
–UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
—英国对封锁和其他欧洲国家的政策没有证据
–The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
–正确的政策是只保护老人和弱者
–This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a"by-product"
–这最终将导致作为"副产品"的群体免疫
–The initial UK response,before the"180 degree U-turn",was better
–在"180度掉头"之前，英国的最初反应更好
–The Imperial College paper was"not very good"and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
–帝国理工学院的论文"不太好"，他从未见过一篇未发表的论文有如此大的政策影响力
–The paper was very much too pessimistic
–报纸太悲观了
–Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
–无论如何，任何这样的模式都是公共政策的可疑基础
–The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
–曲线变平是因为最脆弱的人死在最前面
–The results will eventually be similar for all countries
–最终所有国家的结果都将相似
–Covid-19 is a"mild disease"and similar to the flu,and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
–Covid-19是一种"轻微的疾病"，与流感相似，正是这种疾病的新奇性使人们害怕。
–The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
–Covid-19的实际死亡率为0.1%
–At least 50%of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
-当大规模抗体测试成为可能时，英国和瑞典至少50%的人口将被证明已患有该疾病
»Source»By Philip Schneider
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