欧盟即将面临巨大的脱欧战术失误

2019年10月9日09:30:02欧盟即将面临巨大的脱欧战术失误已关闭评论 4478054字阅读26分50秒
摘要

10月31日英国不退欧的风险微乎其微,但最终退欧的风险正在上升。一段时间以来,欧洲情报机构(Eurointelligence)一直警告称,英国不退欧的风险被广泛低估了。但我们谨慎地避免将不达成协议的情况提升为我们的底线。

欧盟即将面临巨大的脱欧战术失误For a while it appeared the EU was ready to negotiate with Johnson.Perhaps appearances were deceiving.

有一段时间,欧盟似乎准备与约翰逊进行谈判。也许表象具有欺骗性。

Only Way to Bridge the Backstop

跨越障碍的唯一途径

Last Friday,Eurointelligence commented:

上周五,欧洲情报公司(Eurointelligence)评论道:

We would agree that the risk of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 is vanishingly small,but risk of it happening eventually is rising.At Eurointelligence we have been warning for some time that the risks of a no-deal Brexit have been widely underestimated.But we were cautious not to elevate the no-deal scenario to becoming our baseline.

我们都同意,1031日英国不退欧的风险微乎其微,但最终退欧的风险正在上升。一段时间以来,欧洲情报机构(Eurointelligence)一直警告称,英国不退欧的风险被广泛低估了。但我们谨慎地避免将不达成协议的情况提升为我们的底线。

If the EU were to reject the current proposal flat out,that would change.The EU should consider very carefully that Johnson yesterday managed to receive support not only from the DUP,but also from the rebel Tories who lost their whip over the Benn extension legislation.The EU does not want to give Johnson a believable excuse for a no-deal Brexit:having come up with a reasonable proposal whose rejections indicates that the EU was not serious even to engage with the idea of a dual border-one for customs and one for regulation.We think that duality is not only a reasonable starting position,but in fact the only way to bridge the differences over the backstop.

如果欧盟彻底否决目前的提议,情况将会改变。欧盟应该非常谨慎地考虑,约翰逊昨天不仅得到了民主联盟党的支持,而且还得到了反对派保守党的支持,他们在本恩延长法案上失去了支持。欧盟不想给约翰逊一个可信的借口来推动不签署英国退欧协议:他们已经提出了一个合理的提案,其拒绝表明欧盟甚至不认真考虑双边边界的想法——一边是海关边界,一边是监管边界。我们认为二元性不仅是一个合理的出发点,而且事实上是弥合在后挡板上的分歧的唯一途径。

The amount of trade between the UK and the EU was over£600bn.Intra-Irish trade flows were about£5bn.Should the EU really want to endanger a large portion of the£600bn on the grounds that it is possible to blame Johnson for a no-deal Brexit?That would strike us as an entirely irrational strategy.

英国和欧盟之间的贸易额超过6000亿英镑。爱尔兰内部的贸易流动约为50亿英镑。难道欧盟真的愿意因为可以把不能达成脱欧协议的责任归咎于约翰逊而危及6000亿英镑中的一大部分吗?这会让我们觉得这是一个完全不合理的策略。

Last Minute Magic Deals

最后一分钟的魔术交易

My position has been that deals in the EU magically happen at the last second after everyone gives up on them.I also cited trade differential noting in particular German Carmakers Warn"Seismic"and"Devastating"No Deal Consequences

我的立场是,欧盟的协议神奇地发生在所有人都放弃之后的最后一秒钟。我还提到了贸易差异,特别是德国汽车制造商警告(Warn)"地震性""毁灭性"无交易后果

We have seen that time and time again,with German Chancellor Angela Merkel or someone else moving from a fixed position at the end.

我们已经一次又一次地看到,德国总理安吉拉·默克尔或其他人在最后从一个固定的位置移动。

It almost has to be last minute because all 27 nations have to agree to do damn near anything.It's a fundamental flaw of the EU that cannot be fixed because all 27 nations would have to agree to fix it,and they won't.France insists on agricultural protections and German insists on budget protections.

这几乎是最后一刻,因为所有27个国家都必须同意做任何该死的事情。这是欧盟的一个根本性缺陷,无法解决,因为所有27个国家都必须同意解决这个问题,但他们不会。法国坚持农业保护,德国坚持预算保护。

France Enters the Fray

法国加入战争

After movement towards a deal last week,France seems to have hardened its position.French President Emmanuel Macron told Johnson that his offer was not even a starting point.

在上周达成协议之后,法国的立场似乎更为强硬。法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙告诉约翰逊,他的提议甚至不是一个起点。

The Guardian reported Macron gives Johnson until end of week to overhaul Brexit plan.

据《卫报》报道,马克龙要求约翰逊在本周末之前对英国脱欧计划进行全面检查。

In response,Johnson warned 'Don't Be Lured Into the Mistaken Belief that the UK is Staying in the EU'.

作为回应,约翰逊警告说,不要误以为英国会留在欧盟。

Foolish Notions

愚蠢的想法

Unfortunately,that appears to be precisely what has happened.The EU is taking its cues from Remainers who are hopelessly splintered.

不幸的是,事实似乎正是如此。欧盟正从那些无可救药地四分五裂的留欧派那里得到启示。

Let's check back in with the Monday morning Eurointelligence view,emphasis mine.

让我们回到周一早上欧洲情报局的观点,强调我的观点。

This morning,the Telegraph reports that he is now preparing to launch legal action against the Benn Brexit extension bill.We don't think that this has any chance of succeeding,but the point of this action is political:he is seeking to demonstrate that the organs of the state conspire to subvert Brexit.The article suggests that Johnson may himself give evidence to the court.What appears to be a chaotic strategy has the sole purpose to demonstrate that he is doing his best to deliver Brexit.

今天早上,每日电讯报报道,他正准备对本英国脱欧延期法案采取法律行动。我们不认为这有任何成功的机会,但是这个行动的关键是政治:他试图证明国家机关密谋颠覆英国脱欧。文章建议约翰逊可以亲自向法庭提供证据。这个看起来很混乱的策略的唯一目的就是证明他正在尽最大努力实现英国脱欧。

So this is now our most likely scenario-from today's vantage point:the EU does not agree to a deal;Johnson is dragged kicking and screaming into an extension;he wins the ensuing elections;a no-deal Brexit follows.

因此,从今天的有利位置来看,这是我们目前最有可能出现的情况:欧盟不同意达成协议;约翰逊被迫竭尽全力延长协议;他赢得了随之而来的选举;随之而来的是没有达成协议的脱欧。

Most Likely Scenario-No Deal

最有可能的情况-没有协议

That is the first time Eurointrelligence has held that view.

这是欧洲联盟首次持有这种观点。

Wolfgang Munchau writes that the EU should not dismiss the underlying idea in Boris Johnson's offer:the separation of a customs border from the regulatory border.The proposal itself cannot be a final offer.

沃尔夫冈芒肖(Wolfgang Munchau)写道,欧盟不应忽视鲍里斯约翰逊(Boris Johnson)提议中的基本思想:将海关边界与监管边界分开。这项提议本身不可能是最终的提议。

Munchau writes the EU can only politically agree withdrawal agreements that keep the UK aligned as closely as possible with the EU.France fears that the UK might seek a competitive advantage after Brexit.The conclusion is that the EU will always extend the Brexit deadline but,as Munchau says,that strategy is short-sighted and ultimately self-defeating.

文肖写道,欧盟只能在政治上同意退出协议,以使英国尽可能与欧盟保持一致。法国担心英国可能在脱欧后寻求竞争优势。结论是,欧盟总是会延长英国退欧的最后期限,但正如芒肖所说,这种战略是短视的,最终会弄巧成拙。

In particular,it critically misjudges UK politics.Opinion polls continue to show a widening lead of the Tories over the opposition parties.An Opinium poll in the Observer also showed that Labour has regained its lead over the LibDems.What we think is widely underestimated in Brussels is that the current alignment in UK politics strongly favours a no-deal Brexit.The chaos in British politics is benefiting Johnson more than it benefits opposition leaders.With every court battle,we expect Johnson to consolidate his political position.

尤其是,它严重误判了英国的政治。民意调查继续显示,保守党对反对党的领先优势越来越大。《观察家报》的一项民意调查还显示,工党重新获得了对自由民主党的领先优势。我们认为,布鲁塞尔方面普遍低估了英国目前的政治联盟强烈支持不达成协议的英国脱欧。英国政坛的混乱给约翰逊带来的好处比给反对党领袖带来的好处更多。随着每一场法庭斗争,我们期望约翰逊巩固他的政治地位。

Consolidating Political Opinion

巩固政治舆论

Something happened today in the UK parliament that show the extent of political power consolidation.A Tweet chain has the results.

今天,英国议会发生了一些事情,显示出政治权力整合的程度。一个推特链接就可以得到结果。

21 Expelled Tories Will Not Let MPs Seize Control

21名被开除的保守党议员不会让下院议员掌权

欧盟即将面临巨大的脱欧战术失误

Political Reality

政治现实

1.The rebel ex-Tories will not go along with an Parliament takeover

反叛的前保守党人不会同意议会接管政权

2.Jo Swinson and the Liberal Democrats have repeatedly rule against a caretaker government led by Jeremy Corbyn

和自由民主党一再反对 Jeremy Corbyn 领导的看守政府(政府类型)

3.Jeremy Corbyn refuses to support any caretaker government unless led by him

 拒绝支持任何看守政府(政府类型)组织,除非由他领导

4.There is now actually Parliament support for the deal proposed by Johnson

实际上,现在议会支持约翰逊提出的协议

Note the irony of point 4.

注意第4点的讽刺意味。

Theresa May and the EU had a deal that Parliament would not accept.Now Johnson and Parliament has a deal that the EU will not accept.

特蕾莎·梅和欧盟达成了一项议会不会接受的协议。现在,约翰逊和议会达成了一项欧盟不会接受的协议。

The DUP,rebel Tories,hardline Tories,and even some Labour MPs are all willing to go along with an Irish Sea solution.

民主统一党,反对派保守党,强硬派保守党,甚至一些工党议员都愿意接受爱尔兰海的解决方案。

As noted in Brexit Irony:EU Rejects Its Own Proposal the EU proposed a border in the Irish Sea and Theresa May rejected that offer because DUP would not go along.

正如《英国脱欧的讽刺:欧盟拒绝自己的提议》中指出的那样,欧盟提议在爱尔兰海设立边界,特丽莎·梅拒绝了这个提议,因为民主联盟党不同意。

Theresa May instead accepted the worst possible deal for the UK.

相反,特蕾莎·梅接受了英国最糟糕的协议。

Miscalculation or On Purpose?

误算还是故意的?

France may very well want the UK out on a hard deal for reasons we don't fully understand.That said,Germany does get hit harder than France in a No Deal setup.

法国可能非常希望英国在一项强硬的协议上出局,原因我们并不完全清楚。也就是说,如果没有达成协议,德国确实会比法国受到更大的打击。

Possibly it's just a large last-minute bluff.

也许这只是最后一分钟的虚张声势。

But perhaps Eurointelligence has this right.The EU has seriously misjudged UK politics.

但或许欧洲情报局(Eurointelligence)有这个权利,因为欧盟严重低估了英国的政治。

And that's another irony in this mess.It was the UK who for the longest time misjudged the EU.

这是这场混乱中的另一个讽刺。在很长一段时间里,是英国错误地判断了欧盟。

The final irony is that by attempting to take"No Deal"off the table,Remainers just may have sealed the fate.

最具讽刺意味的是,试图把"不做交易"从谈判桌上抹去,留下来的人可能已经决定了这个命运。

Even the expelled Tories have had enough.

甚至被驱逐的保守党也受够了。

Two Lies Exposed

两个被揭穿的谎言

It's now clear that taking No Deal off the table was a gigantic lie from the start.

现在很清楚的是,从一开始就把"不达成协议"排除在谈判桌之外是一个巨大的谎言。

1.Labour,SNP,and some of the expelled Tories did not want to block"No Deal",they want to remain.

工党、苏格兰民族党和一些被驱逐的保守党人不想阻止"不达成协议",他们想留下来

2.If Ireland will not go along with Johnson's offer,then it never would go along with anything.This exposes the Backstop for what it really is:A lie to keep the UK in perpetual limbo forever.

如果爱尔兰不同意约翰逊的提议,那么它将永远不会同意任何提议。这暴露了"后盾"的真面目:一个让英国永远处于不确定状态的谎言

Polls Go Johnson's Way

民调支持约翰逊

欧盟即将面临巨大的脱欧战术失误

Mike"Mish"Shedlock

麦克·"米什夏洛克

来源:https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/eu-on-verge-of-huge-tactical-brexit-mistake-ixEEr7uuBUKsE-q85a-JIA/

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  • 本文由 发表于 2019年10月9日09:30:02
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