Following Fed Chair Powell's surprising announcement today that the Fed was resuming Permanent Open Market Operations after a 5 year hiatus, just as we said last month that it would (see "The Fed Will Restart QE In November: This Is How It Will Do It")...
美联储主席鲍威尔今天出人意料地宣布，美联储将在中断5年后恢复永久性公开市场操作，就像我们上个月所说的那样(见"美联储将在11月重启定量宽松政策: 这就是它将如何做")。
... there was a brief debate whether the Fed's soon to be permanent expansion in its balance sheet is QE or not QE. The answer to this semantic debate simple: Powell defined Quantitative Tightening as removing reserves from the system. Thus, by that simple definition, adding reserves to the system on a permanent basis via permanent open market operations, i.e., bond purchases, is Quantitative Easing. Incidentally, the repo market fireworks were just a smokescreen: the real reason why the Fed is resuming QE is far simpler: the US has facing an avalanche of debt issuance and with China and Japan barely able to keep up, someone has to buy this debt. That someone: the Fed.
对于美联储资产负债表中即将永久性扩张的是量化宽松还是非量化宽松，曾有过短暂的争论。对于这种语义上的争论，答案很简单: 鲍威尔将定量紧缩定义为从系统中消除储备。因此，根据这个简单的定义，通过永久性的公开市场操作，也就是购买债券，在系统中增加永久性的储备，就是量化宽松。顺便说一句，回购市场的烟花只是烟幕弹: 美联储恢复量化宽松政策的真正原因要简单得多: 美国面临大量债务发行，而中国和日本几乎无法跟上，必须有人购买这些债务。
那个人: 美联储。
And just to shut up anyone who still wants to call the upcoming $400BN expansion in the Fed's balance sheet, as represented in the following chart by Goldman...
为了让那些仍然希望称美联储资产负债表即将出现的4000亿美元扩张的人闭嘴，下面这张图表由高盛提供... ..。
... QE-Lite, here is JPMorgan comparing what is coming with what has been: at a $21BN in monthly 10Yr equivalent TSY purchases, the "upcoming" operation is the same size as QE1.
... QE-Lite，这里是摩根大通比较什么是已经: 在每月210亿美元相当于10年 TSY 购买，"即将到来的"操作是相同的规模为 QE1。
Yet semantic bullshit aside, what is most infuriating about Powell's "shocking" announcement (which we previewed a few weeks ago) is that it took place just one day after the central banks' central bank, the Bank of International Settlements, finally caught up with what we first said in 2009 - for economists being only 10 years behind the curve is actually not terrible - and wrote that "the unprecedented growth in central banks' balance sheets since the financial crisis has had a negative impact on the way in which financial markets function."
抛开语义上的狗屁不谈，对于鲍威尔"令人震惊"的声明(我们几周前就已经预演过) ，最令人愤怒的是，声明发表的前一天，各国央行的央行——国际清算银行(bis)——终于赶上了我们在2009年首次发表的声明——因为经济学家只落后曲线10年，实际上并不可怕。他还写道，"自金融危机以来，各国央行的资产负债表出现了前所未有的增长，对金融市场的运作方式产生了负面影响。"
Ignoring the fact that central bank policies are responsible for such phenomena as Brexit and Trump, as it is the flawed monetary policy of the past decade that made the rich richer beyond their wildest dreams by expanding the biggest asset bubble in history, while destroying the middle class...
忽略这样一个事实，即央行的政策应对 Brexit 和特朗普等现象负责，因为正是过去10年有缺陷的货币政策，扩大了历史上最大的资产泡沫，同时摧毁了中产阶级，让富人变得超出了他们最疯狂的梦想。
... it is disgusting that even as the Fed's own supervisor admits that its balance sheet expanding policies have broken the market - something this "tinfoil" conspiracy blog has been saying since 2008 - the Fed is doing even more of the same, ensuring that the market will be more broken than ever!
... 令人厌恶的是，即使美联储自己的监管机构承认其资产负债表扩张政策已经打破了市场——这是这个"锡箔纸"阴谋博客自2008年以来一直在说的——美联储正在做更多同样的事情，确保市场将比以往更加破碎！
So what was this startling epiphany? According to the BIS, while the immediate impact of this massive balance sheet expansion had eased the severe market strains created by the 2008 financial crisis, there had been several negative side-effects. These included a scarcity of bonds available for investors to purchase, squeezed liquidity in some markets, higher levels of bank reserves and fewer market operators actively trading in some areas.
那么这个令人震惊的顿悟是什么呢？国际清算银行表示，虽然这种大规模资产负债表扩张的直接影响缓解了2008年金融危机造成的严重市场压力，但也产生了一些负面的副作用。这些问题包括可供投资者购买的债券短缺，某些市场的流动性受到挤压，银行储备水平提高，某些地区积极交易的市场操作者减少。
In short: last month's repo crisis is a direct consequence of central banks' own actions. as Scott Skyrm explained earlier.
简而言之: 上个月的回购危机是央行自身行动的直接后果。正如斯科特 · 斯凯林之前解释的那样。
"Lower trading volumes and price volatility, compressed credit spreads and flatter term structures may reduce the attractiveness of investing and dealing in bond markets," the BIS said in the Monday report. "Some players may leave the market altogether, resulting in a more concentrated and homogenous set of investors and fewer dealers."
国际清算银行在周一的报告中表示: "交易量下降、价格波动、信贷息差缩小以及期限结构趋于平稳，可能会降低债券市场投资和交易的吸引力。"。 "一些参与者可能完全退出市场，导致投资者更加集中、同质化，交易商数量减少。"
This "could result in market malfunctioning when large central bank balance sheets are eventually unwound", the BIS warned, adding that "it could make it more difficult for reserves to be redistributed effectively between market participants." Of course, the BIS was clearly joking because even five-year olds know balance sheets will never be unwound.
国际清算银行警告称，这"在大型央行资产负债表最终解除时，可能导致市场失灵" ，并补充称，"这可能加大外汇储备在市场参与者之间进行有效再分配的难度。" 当然，国际清算银行显然是在开玩笑，因为即便是五岁的孩子也知道，资产负债表永远不会被解除。
Additionally, the BIS went on to point out that negative impacts have been more prevalent when central banks hold a larger share of outstanding assets, as the FT reported: major central banks' holdings of domestic sovereign bonds range from 20% of outstanding paper at the US Fed to over 40% in Japan.
此外，国际清算银行继续指出，当中央银行持有更大份额的未偿还资产时，负面影响更为普遍，正如英国《金融时报》所报道的: 主要中央银行持有的国内主权债券范围从美联储未偿还债券的20% 到日本超过40% 。
But the BIS said these side-effects had so far only rarely affected financial conditions in such a way as to impede central banks' monetary policymaking, though it added that the full consequences were unlikely to become clear until major central banks started to shrink their balance sheets.
但国际清算银行表示，迄今为止，这些副作用很少影响到金融状况，以至于阻碍了央行的货币政策制定。不过，该行补充称，在主要央行开始缩减资产负债表之前，全部后果不太可能变得明朗。
Worse, the BIS noted that regulations demanding liquidity at large banks might discourage the banks from offering to lend out their reserves — a source of same-day liquidity — into overnight markets. This is similar to what the large banks themselves have said in the last month. But the BIS also noted that since the financial crisis, risk management practices might have changed within the banks themselves.
更糟糕的是，国际清算银行指出，要求大型银行提供流动性的监管规定，可能会阻止银行向隔夜市场提供外汇储备。外汇储备是当日流动性的来源。这与大型银行自己上个月所说的类似。但国际清算银行也指出，自金融危机以来，银行内部的风险管理做法可能已经改变。
Sadly, the Fed - which is fully aware of all of this - decided to ignore everything the BIS warned about, and by launching more POMO/QE/"don't call it QE", just ensured that the next financial crisis will be the last one.
可悲的是，美联储——它完全意识到了这一切——决定无视国际清算银行发出的所有警告，通过推出更多的 pomo / QE / "不要称之为 QE" ，只是确保了下一场金融危机将是最后一场危机。
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