金融风暴的乌云聚集

2019年9月26日22:00:08金融风暴的乌云聚集已关闭评论 7395808字阅读19分21秒

The price of this"solution"-the undermining of the financial system-will eventually be paid in full.

这种"解决方案"——破坏金融体系——的代价最终将得到全额偿付。

金融风暴的乌云聚集

The financial storm clouds are gathering,and no,I'm not talking about impeachment or the Fed and repo troubles--I'm talking about much more serious structural issues,issues that cannot possibly be fixed within the existing financial system.

金融风暴的乌云正在聚集,不,我说的不是弹劾或美联储和回购麻烦----我说的是更严重的结构性问题,这些问题不可能在现有的金融体系内得到解决。

Yes,I'm talking about the cost structure of our society:earned income has stagnated while costs have soared,and households have filled the widening gap with debt they cannot afford to service once the long-delayed recession grabs the economy by the throat.

是的,我说的是我们社会的成本结构:劳动收入停滞不前,而成本飙升,一旦拖延已久的经济衰退扼住经济的咽喉,家庭已经用他们无力偿还的债务填补了不断扩大的缺口。

Everywhere we look,we find households,enterprises and local governments barely able to keep their heads above water--in the longest expansion in recent history.This is as good as it gets,and we're only able to pay our bills by borrowing more,draining rainy-day funds or playing accounting tricks.

我们随处可见家庭、企业和地方政府勉强维持生计,这是近代历史上持续时间最长的经济扩张。这已经是最好的情况了,我们只能通过借更多的钱、消耗应急资金或耍会计花招来支付账单。

So what happens when earned income and tax revenues sag?Households,enterprises and local governments will be unable to pay their bills,and borrowing more will become difficult as the financial markets awaken to the re-emergence of risk:as shocking as it may be in the era of Central Bank Omnipotence,borrowers can still default and lenders can be destroyed by the resulting losses.

那么,当劳动收入和税收收入下降时会发生什么呢?家庭、企业和地方政府将无力支付账单,随着金融市场重新意识到风险的重新出现,借款将变得更加困难:尽管在 Central Bank Omnipotence 时代可能令人震惊,但借款人仍然可能违约,贷款人可能因此遭受损失。

The era of Central Bank Omnipotence has been characterized by two things:

中央银行无所不能的时代有两个拥有属性:

1.A disconnect between risk and return.Since"central banks have our backs,"risk has been vanquished,and since central banks socialize losses by bailing out corporations and banks who gambled and lost,then the financial Oligarchs have been free to ignore risk since the Federal Reserve has implicitly guaranteed returns will always be secured by Fed backstops,market interventions,etc.

1.风险与回报之间的脱节。既然"中央银行支持我们",风险就被消除了,既然中央银行通过救助赌博失败的公司和银行来实现损失社会化,那么金融寡头们就可以自由地忽视风险,因为美联储已经暗中保证回报总是由美联储的支持、市场干预等来保证。

2.Costs have been ignored because"we're all getting richer"via asset bubbles.Your healthcare insurance just doubled in a couple of years?Forget it,Pal,that's chump change compared to the big-time gains in the value of your house and 401K stock holdings.This is the wealth effect:even as rising costs consume earned income,we ignore this financial erosion and borrow and spend more because we feel richer when we look at our home and stock valuations.

2.成本被忽略了,因为通过资产泡沫,"我们都变得更加富有了"。你的医疗保险在几年内翻了一番?算了吧,伙计,跟你房子和401K 股票的大幅增值相比,那只是小钱。这就是财富效应:即使上涨的成本消耗着劳动所得,我们也会忽略这种金融侵蚀,更多地借钱和消费,因为当我们看着我们的房子和股票估值时,我们感觉自己更富有了。

In other words,the wealth effect has been deployed to paper over the enormous structural gap between income and expenses.The wealth effect doesn't just affect households:rising real estate valuations have boosted local government tax revenues,and small businesses have been buoyed by the spending of the top 20%who own 93%of the stocks owned by households and who have seen their homes soar in value.(Note that the top 5%own 71%of the stocks;the top 10%own 84%.)

换句话说,财富效应被用来掩盖收入和支出之间巨大的结构性差距。财富效应不仅影响家庭:不断上升的房地产估值提高了地方政府的税收收入,小企业受到了前20%家庭的支出的支持,他们拥有家庭93%的股票,并且看到自己的房子价值飙升。(注意前5%持有71%的股票,前10%持有84%的股票。)

金融风暴的乌云聚集

But asset bubbles always pop,and once they do,the wealth effect reverses and people feel poorer as the value of their homes and portfolios decline.They borrow and spend less,and all the capital gains that boosted local tax revenues dry up,too.

但是,资产泡沫总是会破裂,一旦破裂,财富效应就会逆转,随着房屋和投资组合价值的下降,人们会感到更加贫穷。他们借贷和支出减少,所有用于增加地方税收的资本收益也枯竭了。

Here's reality:wages haven't kept up with expenses.This chart displays healthcare costs,but rent,higher education,childcare,etc.have similar asymmetries.

现实是:工资没有跟上支出。这张图表显示了医疗成本,但是租金、高等教育、儿童保育等有类似的不对称性。

金融风暴的乌云聚集

Not to pick on these households,but they are representative of the enormous asymmetry between stagnant income and rising costs,and of the"solution":debt,and lots of it.

我不是针对这些家庭,但他们代表了收入停滞和成本上升之间的巨大不对称,以及"解决方案"——债务和大量债务。

I was surprised to find such an honest account in the mainstream(i.e.cheerleader of"good news")Wall Street Journal:

我惊讶地发现,主流媒体(比如"好消息"的啦啦队长)中竟然有如此诚实的报道。《华尔街日报》:

Families Go Deep in Debt to Stay in the Middle Class
Wages stalled but costs haven't,so people increasingly rent or finance what their parents might have owned outright Median household income in the U.S.was$61,372 at the end of 2017,according to the Census Bureau.When inflation is taken into account,that is just above the 1999 level.How households earning$61,000 can acquire cars costing half their gross income is a story of the financialization of the economy.

美国人口普查局的数据显示,2017年底,美国父母可能完全拥有的房产家户平均收入为61372美元。考虑到通货膨胀,这个数字刚好高于1999年的水平。年收入61,000美元的家庭如何用总收入的一半来购买汽车,这是一个经济金融化的故事。

More accurately:financialization is the result of the cost structure pulling away from our ability to pay our expenses with earned income.The only way to enable costs to continue soaring far above our ability to pay them is to financialize the economy,making debt the core mechanism to pay the bills,and asset bubbles the core mechanism to create phantom collateral to support the skyrocketing debt.

更准确地说:金融化是成本结构剥夺了我们用劳动所得支付费用的能力的结果。使成本继续远远高于我们支付能力的唯一方法是使经济金融化,使债务成为支付账单的核心机制,而资产泡沫成为创造虚幻抵押品以支持飙升的债务的核心机制。

Here's the problem with reducing the cost structure to levels we can actually afford:all the fat in our system is screaming that it's bone.The slightest reductions trigger titanic lobbying by whatever group of insiders or vested interests will bear the brunt of the cuts.

把成本结构降低到我们能够承受的水平的问题在于:我们体内所有的脂肪都在尖叫着说那是骨头。任何一个内部人士或既得利益集团,只要有一丁点的削减,就会引发巨大的游说活动,承受削减带来的冲击。

This leaves politicians with one easy way out:borrow enough money to satisfy the demands of every constituency,every clique of insiders and every vested interest.Rather than re-aligning costs with our ability to pay,we're going to use debt to keep all the constituencies happy.

这让政客们只有一条简单的出路:借足够多的钱来满足每个选民、每个圈内人和每个既得利益集团的要求。我们不会根据我们的支付能力重新调整成本,而是将利用债务来让所有选民满意。

The price of this"solution"--the undermining of the financial system--will eventually be paid in full to the detriment of everyone,including all the layers of productivity-killing fat that proclaimed themselves essential bone.

这种"解决方案"的代价——破坏金融体系——最终将付出对所有人都不利的代价,包括所有那些宣称自己是必需骨骼的、能够杀死生产力的脂肪层。

来源:https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/financial-storm-clouds-gather

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  • 本文由 发表于 2019年9月26日22:00:08
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