危机中的世界新秩序

2019年9月3日11:11:22危机中的世界新秩序已关闭评论 86646628字阅读155分25秒
摘要

主流媒体越来越响亮地谈论着即将到来的全球衰退、反向收益率曲线和负收益率,这些都告诉我们,西方金融体系基本上处于昏迷状态,只有通过央行大量注入流动性才能维持下去。到目前为止,人们已经意识到,在指令性经济中充当中央计划者的央行行长们,正在印制货币(又称量化宽松)以助长资产泡沫,这将抹去曾经是市场经济的最后一丝痕迹。

Last week was full of portentous events.Only somebody who has not been awake for the last few years will fail to realize how these at first sight unconnected events are part of the same matrix.There was the ever louder talk in mainstream media about an approaching global recession,inverted yield curves and the negative yields,which tell us that the Western financial system is basically in coma and kept alive only by generous IV injections of central bank liquidity.By now it has dawned on people that the central bankers acting as central planners in a command economy and printing money(aka quantitative easing)to fuel asset bubbles are about to wipe off the last vestiges of what used to be a market economy.

上星期充满了不祥的事件。只有那些在过去几年里没有清醒过来的人才会意识不到,这些乍看之下毫不相关的事件是同一个矩阵的一部分。主流媒体越来越响亮地谈论着即将到来的全球衰退、反向收益率曲线和负收益率,这些都告诉我们,西方金融体系基本上处于昏迷状态,只有通过央行大量注入流动性才能维持下去。到目前为止,人们已经意识到,在指令性经济中充当中央计划者的央行行长们,正在印制货币(又称量化宽松)以助长资产泡沫,这将抹去曾经是市场经济的最后一丝痕迹。

Then we saw Trump taking new twitter swipes at China in his on-and-off"great trade deal"and the stock markets moving like a roller coaster in reaction to each new twitter salvo.Also,we had both Trump and Macron sweet talking about getting Russia back and again renaming their club G8.Last Tuesday at a G7 presser in Biarritz,the Rothschild groomed Macron took it one step further opening up about the reasons why they all of a sudden longed for friendship with Russia:"We are living the end of Western hegemony."In the same series,Britain's new government under Boris Johnson was telling his colleagues in Biarritz that he is now decisively going for a no-deal Brexit,after which he went back to London and staged a coup d'état by suspending parliament to ensure no elected opposition interfered with it.

然后,我们看到特朗普在他断断续续的"大额贸易协议"中对中国进行了新一轮的推特攻击,而股市则像过山车一样随着每一轮推特攻击而波动。此外,特朗普和马克龙都甜言蜜语地谈论让俄罗斯回来,并再次重新命名他们的 G8俱乐部。上周二,在比亚里茨举行的G7新闻发布会上,罗斯柴尔德精心培养的马克龙进一步阐述了他们突然渴望与俄罗斯建立友谊的原因:"我们正在经历西方霸权的终结。"在同一系列事件中,鲍里斯约翰逊(Boris Johnson)领导的英国新政府告诉他在比亚里茨的同僚,他现在决定不签署脱欧协议。脱欧之后,他回到伦敦,发动了政变,暂停议会运作,以确保没有民选的反对派干预。

Perhaps the weirdest news to crown it all,came from Jackson Hole,Wyoming,where the Western central bankers were holed up for their annual retreat.The president of Bank of England Mark Carney shocked everybody(at least those not present)by announcing that the US dollar was past its best-before and should be replaced with something the central bankers have up their sleeves.

也许最奇怪的消息来自怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔,那里的西方央行行长们躲藏在他们的年度度假地。英国央行(Bank of England)行长马克卡尼(Mark Carney)宣布,美元已经超过历史最好水平,应该换成央行官员们已经准备好的东西,这令所有人(至少不在场的人)感到震惊。

危机中的世界新秩序

The New World Order is in its death throes

世界新秩序正处于垂死挣扎之中

What these events have in common is that they amount to an admission that the globalist New World Order project in its present form is dead,or at least in its death throes.It has bumped its head against an impenetrable Sino-Russian wall of resistance.The heated totalitarian propaganda against Russia since 2001(when the NWO realized that Putin wasn't their man);regime change and color revolutions in neighboring countries;attempts at Maidan style coups in Moscow;and finally the sanctions since 2014 were key to the Anglo-Zionist empires strategy.They needed to take over either China or Russia to gain absolute world hegemony.Taking over either one,they would have checkmated the remaining one,and after that the entire world.They rightly deemed Russia as the weaker piece and went all out in that direction.The NWO wanted to take advantage of Russia's weakness in form of its Western minded comprador class and a shell-shocked liberal intelligentsia(dominating media,culture and business,just like in Hong Kong,BTW),which is constitutional uncapable of thinking with their own brains to liberate themselves from Soviet era stereotypes("Soviet Union/Russia bad,West good").

这些事件的共同之处在于,它们相当于承认全球主义的新世界秩序项目以其目前的形式已经死亡,或者至少处于垂死挣扎之中。它的头撞在了坚不可摧的中俄阻力墙上。自2001年以来( NWO 意识到普京不是他们的人时),针对俄罗斯的极权主义宣传愈演愈烈;邻国的政权更迭和颜色革命;莫斯科独立广场式政变的企图;以及2014年以来的制裁,都是盎格鲁-犹太复国主义帝国战略的关键。他们需要接管中国或俄罗斯来获得绝对的世界霸权。接管任何一个,他们都会将死剩下的一个,之后整个世界。他们正确地认为俄罗斯是较弱的一方,并全力以赴地朝这个方向努力。新世界联盟想利用俄罗斯在形式上的弱点:西方思想的买办阶级和受到炮弹打击的自由主义知识分子(主导媒体、文化和商业,就像在香港一样,顺便说一句)。这些知识分子在宪法上没有能力用自己的头脑思考,把自己从苏联时代的刻板印象("苏联/俄罗斯坏,西方好")中解放出来。

They then figured that economic and cultural sanctions(e.g.Olympic ban)coupled with doubling down on the propaganda would break the country.Luckily,the Russian narod,the common people saw through it all and would not play along with the enemy.At the same time,Russia paraded its resurrected military in Crimea and Syria as well as its formidable new hypersonic doomsday weapons.The military option to take over Russia was not in the cards any longer.

然后他们认为经济和文化制裁(例如奥运禁令)加上双倍的宣传将会破坏这个国家。幸运的是,普通老百姓看穿了这一切,不会与敌人同流合污。与此同时,俄罗斯展示了其在克里米亚和叙利亚复兴的军事力量,以及其令人敬畏的新型超音速末日武器。接管俄罗斯的军事选择不再是可能的了。

危机中的世界新秩序

Russian economy from strength to strength

俄罗斯经济越来越强大

Believing their own propaganda,they had got that totally wrong.Endlessly repeating their own self-serving talking points they must have truly fancied that Russia's economy amounted to nothing else than export of fossil fuels,that"Russia's economy is the size of Holland's,"that"Russia does not produce anything,"and that Russia was"nothing but a gas station with nukes"(somehow managing to ignore the significance of the nukes part).I seriously believe,that the propaganda had become so complete that the Western leaders and the intelligence people actually had come to adapt their own propaganda as the truth.What is for sure,is that all Western media,including what should be the most respected business journals and all those think tanks,had not published one honest appraisal of the Russian economy in 15 years.Every single piece I read over the years had clearly been written with the aim to denigrate Russia's achievements and economic development.Nowhere to be found were reports on how Putin by 2013 had totally overhauled the economy transforming Russia into the most self-sufficient diversified major country in the world with all the capabilities of the foremost industrial powers.In fact,I tend to think that even the US presidents from Bush to Obama were fed in their intelligence briefings cooked up fake reports about the Russian economy and the whole nation.Actually,I would go one step further.I bet that the CIA itself in the end believed the propaganda it had given birth to.(It has been said that at some point the genuine Russia analysts had all been dismissed or demoted and replaced with a team specializing in anti-Russian propaganda).

相信他们自己的宣传,他们完全搞错了。无休止地重复他们自私自利的谈话要点,他们肯定真的幻想过俄罗斯的经济只不过是出口化石燃料,"俄罗斯的经济规模和荷兰一样大""俄罗斯什么都不生产",以及俄罗斯"只不过是一个装有核武器的加油站"(不知为什么忽视了核武器的重要性)。我认真地相信,宣传已经变得如此完整,以至于西方的领导人和情报人员,实际上已经把他们自己的宣传变成了真理。可以肯定的是,所有西方媒体,包括最受尊敬的商业期刊和所有这些智囊团,在过去的15年里都没有发表过一篇关于俄罗斯经济的真实评论。这些年来,我读的每一篇文章都明显是为了诋毁俄罗斯的成就和经济发展。到2013年,普京如何彻底改革俄罗斯经济,使其成为世界上自给自足、多元化程度最高的大国,拥有最重要的工业强国所拥有的一切能力,这方面的报道无处可寻。事实上,我倾向于认为,即使是从布什到奥巴马的美国总统,在他们的情报简报中也被灌输了有关俄罗斯经济和整个国家的虚假报告。事实上,我会更进一步。我敢打赌,中央情报局本身最终相信了它所产生的宣传。(据说,真正的俄罗斯分析人士在某个时候都被解雇或降职,取而代之的是一个专门从事反俄宣传的团队)

But actually all the data was there in plain view.I myself took the trouble to compile a report on the real conditions of Russia's economy fresh at the onset of the 2014 crisis.In the report,I set out to show that Russia indeed had modernized and diversified its economy;that it had a vibrant manufacturing industry in addition to its energy and minerals sector;and that its budget revenues and economy at large were not at all as dependent on oil and gas as it was claimed.Among other things,we pointed out that Russia's industrial production had by then grown more than 50%(between 2000 and 2013)while having undergone a total modernization at the same time.In the same period,production of food had surged by 100%and exports had skyrocketed by almost 400%,outdoing all major Western countries.Even the growth of exports of other than oil and gas products had been 250%.

但实际上,所有的数据都是显而易见的。在2014年金融危机爆发之初,我自己就不辞辛劳地编写了一份关于俄罗斯经济真实状况的报告。在这份报告中,我着手表明,俄罗斯的确实现了经济的现代化和多样化;除了能源和矿产部门之外,俄罗斯还有一个充满活力的制造业;俄罗斯的预算收入和整个经济根本不像人们所说的那样依赖石油和天然气。除其他事项外,我们指出,当时俄罗斯的工业生产增长了50%以上(2000年至2013年之间),同时也经历了全面的现代化。在同一时期,粮食产量猛增了100%,出口猛增了近400%,超过了所有主要的西方国家。甚至石油和天然气产品以外的出口增长也达到了250%

The gist of the study may be summarized with this quote from it:

这项研究的要点可以用下面的引文来概括:

"The crisis-torn economy battered by years of robber capitalism and anarchy of the 1990's,which Putin inherited in 2000,has now reached sufficient maturity to justify a belief that Russia can make the industrial breakthrough that the President has announced."

普京在2000年继承了上世纪90年代的强盗式资本主义和无政府状态,多年来,俄罗斯经济饱受危机摧残。现在,这种经济已经足够成熟,足以证明俄罗斯能够实现总统宣布的工业突破。"

Events have borne out this insight.And it is therefore that Russia won the sanctions battle.

事实证明了这一点,因此俄罗斯赢得了制裁之战。

The report represented an appeal to the Western leaders to give up on their vain hope of destroying Russia through their sanctions and risking nuclear war at it.Russia was invincible even in this respect.For that purpose I expressly added this missive in the introduction to the report:

这份报告呼吁西方领导人放弃通过制裁摧毁俄罗斯并冒核战争风险的徒劳希望。即使在这方面,俄罗斯也是不可战胜的。为此目的,我在报告导言中明确添加了这一信函:

"We strongly believe that everyone benefits from knowing the true state of Russia's economy,its real track record over the past decade,and its true potential.Having knowledge of the actual state of affairs is equally useful for the friends and foes of Russia,for investors,for the Russian population–and indeed for its government,which has not been very vocal in telling about the real progress.I think there is a great need for accurate data on Russia,especially among the leaders of its geopolitical foes.Correct data will help investors to make a profit.And correct data will help political leaders to maintain peace.Knowing that Russia is not the economic basket case that it is portrayed to be would help to stave othe foes from the collision course with Russia they have embarked on."

"我们坚信,了解俄罗斯经济的真实状况、过去10年的真实记录以及它的真实潜力,对每个人都有好处。对于俄罗斯的朋友和敌人,对于投资者,对于俄罗斯人民,甚至对于俄罗斯政府来说,了解实际情况同样有用。我认为现在非常需要关于俄罗斯的准确数据,尤其是那些地缘政治敌人的领导人。正确的数据将有助于投资者获利。正确的数据将有助于政治领导人维护和平。了解到俄罗斯并不像人们所描述的那样经济一塌糊涂,将有助于击退冲击理论与俄罗斯之间的敌人。"

A follow-up report of June 2017 covering the sanctions years 2014–2016,showed how Russia went from strength to strength never mind the Western attempts at isolation.This report stressed that Russia's economy had now become the most diversified in the world making Russia the most self-sufficient country on this earth.

20176月关于2014-2016年制裁的后续报告显示,俄罗斯如何一步步走向强大,丝毫不在意西方孤立俄罗斯的企图。这份报告强调,俄罗斯的经济现在已经成为世界上最多样化的国家,使俄罗斯成为世界上最自给自足的国家。

In this report we exposed the single biggest error of the propaganda driven Russia analysis.This was the ridiculous belief that Russia supposedly was totally dependent on oil and gas just because those commodities made up the bulk of the country's exports.Confusing exports with the total economy,they had foolishly confused the share of oil and gas in total exports–which was and remains at the level of 60%–with the share of these commodities of the total economy.In 2013 the share of oil and gas of Russia's GDP was 12%(today 10%).Had the"experts"cared to take a closer look they would have realized that on the other side of the equation Russia's imports were by far the lowest(as a share of GDP)of all major countries.The difference here is that while Russia does not export a great deal of manufactured goods,it produces by far a bigger share of those for the domestic market than any other country in the whole world.Taking the 60%of exports to stand for the whole economy was how the"Russia produces nothing"meme was created.

在这份报告中,我们揭露了宣传驱动的俄罗斯分析中最大的一个错误。这是一种荒谬的想法,认为俄罗斯完全依赖石油和天然气,只是因为这些商品占该国出口的大部分。他们把出口与整个经济混为一谈,愚蠢地把石油和天然气在总出口中所占的份额与这些商品在总经济中所占的份额混为一谈。2013年,石油和天然气在俄罗斯 GDP 中所占的份额为12%(今天为10%)。如果"专家"愿意仔细研究一下,他们就会意识到,在等式的另一边,俄罗斯的进口额(占国内生产总值的比例)是所有主要国家中最低的。这里的不同之处在于,尽管俄罗斯没有出口大量的制成品,但它为国内市场生产的制成品所占的份额远远大于世界上任何其他国家。"俄罗斯什么都不生产"的文化基因就是用60%的出口来代表整个经济的。

Finally in a November 2018 report,I could declare that Russia had won hands down the sanctions war having emerged from it as a quadruple superpower:industrial superpower,agricultural superpower,military superpower and geopolitical superpower.

最后,在201811月的一份报告中,我可以宣布,俄罗斯已经毫不费力地赢得了制裁战争,因为它已经成为一个四重超级大国:工业超级大国、农业超级大国、军事超级大国和地缘政治超。

Macron et co.realizes that Russia actually is a superpower

马克龙等人意识到,俄罗斯实际上是一个超级大国

These facts have now finally dawned on certain key stakeholders of the globalist regime can be discerned from the fact that they have tasked their handpicked puppet president Macron to make up with Russia.Trump has got the same assignment,which is evident from the siren calls of the two leaders in Putin's address.Both want to invite Putin to their future G7-8 get-togethers.

现在,全球主义政权的某些关键利益相关者终于明白了这些事实:他们已经委派他们亲手挑选的傀儡总统马克龙与俄罗斯和解。特朗普也得到了同样的任务,这从普京讲话中两位领导人的妖言惑众中可以明显看出。双方都希望邀请普京参加他们未来的 G7-8会议。

As it was said,Macron went as far as unilaterally capitulating and declaring the decline of the West.He went on to spell out that the reason for this spectacular geopolitical about-face was the rise of the Beijing–Moscow(de facto)alliance that has caused a terminal shift on the world scene.Curiously,he also openly blamed the errors of the United States for the dire state of affairs pointing out that"not just the current administration"were to be blamed.No doubt,the foremost of these errors,Macron had in mind,was the alienation of Russia and pushing the country into the warm embrace of China.It is quite clear,that this is what they want to remedy,snatch the bear back from the dragon.Fortunately,that won't happen.Good if there will be rapprochement and good if the West will try,but after all what Russia has learnt by now it will not sell out on China under any circumstances.I think Putin and the Russian powers that be have clearly opted for a multipolar world order.That is definitely not what Macron's and Trump's employers have in mind but let them try.

据说,马克龙甚至单方面投降,宣布西方的衰落。他接着指出,这种引人注目的地缘政治转变的原因,是北京-莫斯科(事实上)联盟的崛起,这种联盟导致了世界舞台上的一个终结性转变。奇怪的是,他还公开指责美国的错误造成了可怕的局面,并指出"不仅仅是现任政府"应该受到谴责。毫无疑问,马克龙认为,这些错误中最重要的是疏远了俄罗斯,把这个国家推向了中国的温暖怀抱。很明显,这就是他们想要补救的,把熊从龙手里抢回来。幸运的是,这不会发生。如果西方国家愿意尝试的话,和解和善是好事,但是毕竟俄罗斯现在已经学会了在任何情况下都不会出卖中国。我认为,普京和俄罗斯大国显然已经选择了多极化的世界秩序。这绝对不是马克龙和特朗普的雇主想要的,但让他们试试吧。

Until Trump took office,the strategy of the US regime had been to pursue only Russia in its geopolitical ambitions,but by then it had dawned on them that Russia was invincible especially in the de facto alliance with China.In a sign of desperation,the empire then opened big time another front with China.Essentially going from bad to worse.

在特朗普上台之前,美国政权的战略一直是只追求俄罗斯的地缘政治野心,但那时他们已经意识到,俄罗斯是不可战胜的,尤其是在与中国事实上的联盟中。在一个绝望的信号,帝国然后开放了一个大时间与中国的另一个战线。基本上每况愈下。

The world order is being shaken like never before

世界秩序正受到前所未有的动摇

"The world order is being shaken like never before…",that's another quote from Macron.Obviously,it refers to the military and geopolitical strengths of the Sino-Russian alliance,but certainly also to the economic shifts as the West has lost–and will keep losing–its economic domination.This brings us back to Mark Carney of Bank of England and his unprecedented attack on the US dollar arguing that it was time to end its global reserve currency status.As one option Carney brought up that the major Western central banks would instead issue a digital cryptocurrency.That is to say,a NWO currency controlled by the central banks.That would effectively mean the replacement of the Federal Reserve cartel with a cartel of the Western central banks(the Fed obviously being a part of it).That's yet one step further north from any kind of democratic control and a giant step towards world government.

"世界秩序正在遭受前所未有的动摇......"这是 Macron 的另一句话。显然,它指的是中俄同盟在军事和地缘政治方面的优势,当然也包括西方已经失去并将继续失去其经济主导地位的经济转变。这让我们想起了英国央行(Bank of England)的马克卡尼(Mark Carney),以及他对美元发起的前所未有的攻击,他认为,是时候结束美元的全球储备货币地位了。卡尼提出的一个选择是,西方主要央行将发行一种数字加密货币。也就是说,一种由中央银行控制的 NWO 货币。这实际上意味着西方中央银行卡特尔(美联储显然是其中的一部分)取代美联储卡特尔。这是从任何形式的民主控制向北迈出的一步,也是迈向世界政府的一大步。

What could possibly have prompted such a radical US hegemony puncturing idea to be put forward?One reason obviously is that the Western economies really are in that extreme critical condition that more and more analysts caution about.(We shall look at the economic facts further down).There's a very real possibility that we will be hit by a doomsday recession.What's sure is that Carney's bizarre speech could possibly not have occurred in a normal economic environment(any more than Macron's admission that the Western hegemony is done with).According to Zerohedge,The Financial Times,the party organ of the globalist elite,admitted as much in its report on the Jackson Hole meeting.The central bankers"acknowledged they had reached a turning point in the way they viewed the global system.They cannot rely on the tools they used before the financial crisis to shape the economic environment,and the US can no longer be considered a predictable actor in economic or trade policy—even though there is no imminent replacement for the US dollar in sight."

究竟是什么促使人们提出这样一种激进的美国霸权破坏思想?一个显而易见的原因是,西方经济体确实处于那种越来越多的分析家警告的极端危急状态。(我们将进一步研究经济事实)。我们很有可能遭遇末日般的经济衰退。可以肯定的是,卡尼奇怪的演讲不可能发生在正常的经济环境中(就像马克龙承认西方霸权已经结束一样)。据零对冲报道,全球主义精英的党报《金融时报》在关于杰克逊霍尔会议的报道中也承认了这一点。各国央行行长"承认,他们对全球体系的看法已经到了一个转折点。他们不能依赖金融危机前使用的工具来塑造经济环境,美国也不能再被视为经济或贸易政策的可预测参与者——尽管眼下还没有美元的替代品。"

There was an effective admission that the central bankers had run out of tricks to pull the economies out of the everything-bubble mess,not to mention the looming doomsday recession.According to FT,Carney went as far as flashing the war card saying:"past instances of very low rates have tended to coincide with high risk events such as wars,financial crises,and breaks in the monetary regime."On the one hand this can be seen as an admission on how deeply tormented they are about the financial situation and what could happen when it comes crashing down.On the other hand,it can be seen as a sales pitch,"only we can fix it,trust us,give us a carte blanche."Or more probably,both.

人们有效地承认,中央银行已经用尽了把经济拉出一切泡沫混乱的伎俩,更不用说迫在眉睫的世界末日衰退了。据英国《金融时报》报道,卡尼甚至亮出了"战争牌":"过去极低利率的情况往往与高风险事件同时发生,比如战争、金融危机和货币政权的崩溃。"一方面,这可以被看作是承认他们对于财政状况和崩溃时可能发生的事情是多么的痛苦。另一方面,它可以被看作是一种推销,"只有我们能解决它,信任我们,给我们全权委托。"或者更有可能,两者都有。

Note from above Carney saying:"the US can no longer be considered a predictable actor in economic or trade policy."Bank of England President here directly attacking President Trump.

上面的注释卡尼说:"美国不能再被认为是经济或贸易政策中一个可预测的角色。"英国央行行长直接攻击特朗普总统。

And just a couple of days later William Dudley an ex-president of New York Federal Reserve Bank(the most influential of the 12 federal reserve banks that comprise the Federal Reserve System)followed up on a direct attack on Trump.But as they say about spies,there are no ex-spies,and I would think the same applies for the global financial elite.And yes indeed,Dudley is a card carrying member of the Council of Foreign Relations.Dudley had penned an op-ed for Bloomberg titled"The Fed Shouldn't Enable Donald Trump," where he openly lobbies for the Fed to deliberately damage the economy in order to neutralize the policies(namely trade wars)of the sitting president and prevent his reelection chances by willfully ruining the economy.

仅仅几天之后,纽约联邦储备银行(New York Federal Reserve Bank)前行长威廉达德利(William Dudley)对特朗普发起了直接攻击。纽约联邦储备银行是构成美联储体系的12家联邦储备银行中最具影响力的一家。但正如他们所说的间谍,没有前间谍,我认为这同样适用于全球金融精英。没错,达德利确实是美国外交关系委员会的正式成员。达德利为布隆伯格撰写了一篇名为《美联储不应该纵容唐纳德·特朗普》(The Fed shouldn't Enable Donald Trump)的专栏文章,公开游说美联储蓄意破坏经济,以便抵消现任总统的政策(即贸易战),并通过蓄意破坏经济来防止他连任的机会。

One thing is for sure,the elite is desperate and in serious disarray.Very probable that the elite is split,too.It seems as if there were two globalist factions competing with each other and wanting to follow vastly different strategies.One faction supports Trump and the other is against him.Possibly,one that wants to do things with force and another that wants to gain by stealth.That could be Pentagon and the military-industrial complex vs.the financial elite,who also owns the media.My argument does not hinge on the veracity of those division lines,but that some rupture exists among the elites must be taken for granted,otherwise Trump would have been ousted by now with all that pressure on him.

有一件事是可以肯定的,精英们已经绝望了,并且陷入了严重的混乱。精英阶层很可能也分裂了。似乎有两个全球主义派别在相互竞争,并希望遵循截然不同的策略。一派支持特朗普,另一派反对他。可能是一个想用武力做事的人,另一个想秘密获利的人。这可能是五角大楼和军事工业复合体对金融精英,谁也拥有媒体。我的论点并不取决于这些分歧路线的真实性,但必须认为精英之间存在一些分歧是理所当然的,否则特朗普现在就会被赶下台,身上承受着那么大的压力。

To summarize this introduction.

总结一下这个介绍

The Western world is in turmoil:the previous overwhelming geopolitical domination is gone and over with;military solutions against the main adversaries–China and Russia–are off the books;hybrid wars against them have failed;China and Russia are economically stronger than ever,too strong for the adversary;and to boot the domestic Western economies are in extraordinary bad shape,risking a depression of epic proportions.

西方世界正处于动荡之中:先前压倒性的地缘政治主导地位已经一去不复返了;针对主要对手中国和俄罗斯的军事解决方案没有记录在案;针对它们的混合战争已经失败了;中国和俄罗斯的经济比以往任何时候都更强大,对于对手来说太强大了;而且,引导西方国内经济处于极其糟糕的状态,有可能。

***

***

Further down in this report,I will look at the one aspect of the question I am best equipped to handle,namely the economy.I will outline just in how bad shape the Western debt-fueled casino economies are.Having that as the background,I will then show how surprisingly strong the Russian economy is,at least in comparison with the Western gambling nations.Most importantly,Russia is virtually debtless,and that's really the clue to survival in this extraordinary economic environment.In addition to the solid finances,Russia has other things going for it,too,as we will see below.I will not provide comparative data on China.One reason for that is,that China is not an economic risk.China does not have the debt problem that it is frequently touted in Western press to have.China,as the world's number one export country,would of course take a hit in a serious global crisis,but that would not kill the economy.Although,China is the biggest exporter,there has been a shift from export-led growth towards domestic investment and consumption.The share of exports of goods and services in the country's GDP was by 2018 down to 19.5%,half of the 2006 peak of 36%.On the contrary,the Chinese economy would stay vivid and therefore also help to sustain Russia's exports.

在这份报告的进一步内容中,我将着眼于这个问题中我最有能力处理的一个方面,即经济。我将概述西方债务驱动的赌场经济的状况有多糟糕。以此为背景,我将展示俄罗斯经济是多么惊人地强大,至少与西方赌博国家相比是如此。最重要的是,俄罗斯几乎是无可挑剔的,这才是在这种非凡的经济环境中生存的真正线索。除了稳固的财政状况,俄罗斯还有其他的优势,我们将在下面看到。我不会提供有关中国的比较数据。其中一个原因是,中国不是一个经济风险。中国没有西方媒体经常吹捧的债务问题。作为世界第一大出口国,中国当然会在严重的全球危机中遭受打击,但这不会扼杀经济。尽管中国是最大的出口国,但经济增长已从出口拉动型转向国内投资和消费拉动型。到2018年,商品和服务出口占国内生产总值的份额下降到19.5%,是2006年峰值36%的一半。相反,中国经济将保持活力,因此也有助于维持俄罗斯的出口。

I may add as one more piece of background,that it is my firm belief that the approaching economic disaster has long been evident to the central bankers and the globalist elite decision makers.Most likely the game plan was to establish the absolute world hegemony–which they not long ago thought was within early reach–and then after that deal with the debts as they saw fit as democratic dissent would not matter a bit anymore by then.That's why they felt confident in building up the asset bubbles to carry them over to the final solution.Reminds me about a story told about Moscow's so-called Khrushchyovka tenement buildings.These are low-cost three-to five-storied houses built quickly and cheap during the Khrushchev era to address the dire housing shortages of the 1960s.According to the story,the planners knew they would serve only for a few decades,but that would not matter all that much because by that time there would be Communism and everything would be perfect anyway.No Communism materialized,but presently the Moscow government under Mayor Sobyanin has initiated a program to tear them all down and erect new buildings where flats with title will be given for free to house the 1.5 million present residents of those buildings slated for replacement.–Well,that's sort of Communism,isn't it?–This kind of wishful thinking must have kept the globalist elite going,too.Unfortunately for the dreamers,though,their plans hit a snag in form of Russia and China.

我可以再补充一点背景知识,那就是我坚信,对于央行行长和全球主义精英决策者来说,即将到来的经济灾难早已显而易见。最有可能的策略是建立绝对的世界霸权——他们不久前还认为这一点很快就能实现——然后在那之后,他们认为适合民主异议的债务处理方式到那时就不再重要了。这就是为什么他们觉得有信心制造资产泡沫,把它们带到最终的解决方案。这让我想起了一个关于莫斯科所谓的 Khrushchyovka 廉价公寓楼的故事。在赫鲁晓夫时代,为了解决上世纪60年代严重的住房短缺问题,这些低成本的三层到五层的房子建造得又快又便宜。根据这个故事,规划者知道他们只能服务几十年,但是这并不重要,因为到那时将会有共产主义,一切都将是完美的。没有共产主义成为现实,但是目前索比亚宁市长领导下的莫斯科政府已经启动了一项计划,把这些建筑全部拆除,建造新的建筑物,在这些建筑物中,拥有所有权的公寓将免费提供给那些计划更换的150万现有居民。这就是共产主义,不是吗?-这种一厢情愿的想法肯定也让全球主义精英们继续前进。然而,对于梦想家们来说,不幸的是,他们的计划遭遇了俄罗斯和中国的阻碍。

Central bank fueled asset bubbles

中央银行助长了资产泡沫

Russia is low in debt,but you can't say the same about the US and other Western nations.And that debt really is what got the world in the present mess and brought it teetering on the brink of financial collapse.Since the late 80s,the US central bank,the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan developed an addiction to cure any downward tick on Wall Street with easy credit,eventually requiring after every downturn ever bigger central bank liquidity injections to keep the stock indices on a growth curve.Greenspan was experimenting with a policy aimed at creating a"wealth effect"aka"trickle-down."The idea being that Wall Street bankers and big corporations be stuffed with all the free money they can swallow for the purpose of keeping stock and bond prices high.The theoretical frame told that doing so something would eventually trickle down to the real economy,and everybody would live happily ever after.After stocks and bonds,Greenspan's wealth effect policy was addressed to inflate home prices and all real estate with that.That was the road that eventually led to the 2008 subprime loan crisis,which took down Lehman Brothers and then all of Wall Street and the whole global economy.

俄罗斯的债务很低,但是美国和其他西方国家就不一样了。正是这些债务让世界陷入目前的混乱,并使其在金融崩溃的边缘摇摇欲坠。自上世纪80年代末以来,美联储(fed)在艾伦格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)的领导下,对利用宽松信贷治愈华尔街任何下滑都产生了上瘾,最终要求在每次经济低迷之后,美联储向市场注入越来越多的流动性,使股指保持在增长。格林斯潘正在试验一项旨在创造"财富效应"("涓滴效应")的政策
他们的想法是,华尔街的银行家和大公司为了保持股票和债券价格高企,可以自由吞下所有的钱。这个理论框架告诉我们,这样做最终会有一些东西渗透到实体经济中,每个人都能过上很想和你在一起。继股票和债券之后,格林斯潘的财富效应政策旨在推高房价和所有房地产价格。这是最终导致2008年次贷危机的道路,这场危机拖垮了雷曼兄弟,然后是整个华尔街和整个全球经济。

But Wall Street recovered soon,because Greenspan's successor Ben Bernanke had set forth to blow up an even bigger asset bubble.And the Europeans followed suit.The Fed fueled the market frenzy with creating money out of thin air(aka quantitative easing)in favor of governments,banks and corporations to the tune of$3.5 trillion in the decade following the 2008 collapse.

但华尔街很快就恢复了元气,因为格林斯潘的继任者本伯南克(Ben Bernanke)已着手引爆一个更大的资产泡沫。欧洲人也纷纷效仿。美联储在2008年金融危机之后的十年里,凭空创造了3.5万亿美元的货币(又称量化宽松),支持政府、银行和企业,助长了市场的狂热。

The European Central Bank has done the same for Europe in volumes more than 2.5 trillion euro to date.All the other Western central banks joined the gambling by flooding the markets with fiat money at same levels relatively speaking.

迄今为止,欧洲中央银行已经为欧洲提供了超过2.5万亿欧元的贷款。相对而言,所有其他西方国家的央行都加入了这场赌博,以相同的水平向市场注入大量法定货币。

But anyway this astronomic leverage and the humongous budget deficits of the Western countries didn't get the real economy anywhere.They have blown up asset bubbles of phantasmagorical proportions with preciously little trickle-down.Since the pre-crash peak in October 2007,the broadest US stock index(Wilshire 5000)has gained 95%(on top of covering the nearly 60%crash from in between).In the same 12-year period industrial production(manufacturing,mining,energy,utilities)has grown only 5%combined over all those years.Deduct–the in itself lossmaking–shale oil and gas and there is barely no growth left in the 12 years.In fact,the US manufacturing sector was in June still 1.6%below the pre-crisis peak in December 2007.So we have a 5%gain in the most important part of the real economy vs.95%in stock market gambling.The absurdity of the stock market growth is further evidenced by the gap between growth of real final sales and stock valuations since 2007 peak.Since then,the former has grown on an average 1.6%per year,while the stock market has delivered annualized growth at levels of 15%.Total industrial production share of the GDP in the US has sunk to 18%.(For comparison,the figure for Russia was 32%and growing.)

但无论如何,这种天文数字般的杠杆作用和西方国家庞大的预算赤字并没有带来任何实体经济。他们吹起了幻想般的资产泡沫,而这些泡沫几乎没有向下渗透。自200710月崩盘前的峰值以来,美国最广泛的股票指数(威尔希尔5000指数)已经上涨了95%(在此之间覆盖了近60%的崩盘)。在同样的12年时间里,工业生产(制造业、采矿业、能源业、公用事业)在这些年里总共只增长了5%。扣除页岩油和天然气本身的亏损,12年内几乎没有增长。事实上,6月份美国制造业仍比200712月危机前的峰值低1.6%。因此,我们在实体经济中最重要的部分获得了5%的收益,而在股市博弈中获得了95%的收益。自2007年达到峰值以来,实际最终销售增长与股票估值之间的差距,进一步证明了股市增长的荒谬性。从那时起,前者的年均增长率为1.6%,而股市的年均增长率为15%。美国工业总产值占 GDP 的比重已经下降到18%(相比之下,俄罗斯的这一数字为32%,而且还在增长。)

Trickle-down,anyone?

滴下来,有人要吗?

It would be false to claim there has not been any trickle-down at all.Millions of people have kept their jobs because of it.But at the same time they have had their real wages squeezed and the overwhelming majority have seen their standards of living drop.Only massive loads of consumer credits and ultra-cheap mortgages have kept up an illusion of superficial prosperity among the middle classes.This debt-fueled prosperity and it's cursory result,the artificial real estate asset bubble will prove a wolf in sheep's clothing when the everything-bubble bursts.

声称根本没有任何涓滴效应是错误的。数百万人因此保住了饭碗。但与此同时,他们的实际工资被压缩,绝大多数人的生活水平下降。只有大量的消费者信贷和极其廉价的抵押贷款,才让中产阶级一直保持着表面繁荣的假象。这种债务驱动的繁荣和它的粗略结果,人为的房地产泡沫将证明是披着羊皮的狼当一切泡沫破裂。

There's been another form of trickle-down,too,a much more real and actually beneficial one.By creating the debt-fueled illusion of prosperity,the Western central banks have actually subsidized China,Russia and all of the emerging world as they have flushed their export goods on the global markets where the Western nations have picked it all up on borrowed money.Thanks for that,though.At the same time,that has driven production costs up in the West with the consequence that their own industries have been priced out.

还有另一种形式的涓滴效应,一种更加真实和实际上有益的效应。通过创造以债务为动力的繁荣假象,西方央行实际上对中国、俄罗斯和所有新兴国家提供了补贴,因为它们在全球市场上冲销了出口商品,而西方国家则是通过借钱获得了这些商品。不过还是要谢谢你。与此同时,这也推高了西方国家的生产成本,其后果是他们自己的产业被高价挤出市场。

The humongous borrowings fail to produce GDP growth

巨额借款无法产生 GDP 增长

Every year since the last bout of the crisis in 2008,growth of debt in the national economies of each Western country has far exceeded the growth of economic output measured as GDP.Below chart shows just how bad it has been in the US.

2008年上一轮危机爆发以来,每一个西方国家的国民经济债务增长都远远超过 GDP 的经济产出增长。下面的图表显示了美国的情况有多糟糕。

危机中的世界新秩序

The debt and GDP growth curves started to diverge in the late 70s,but from 2000 debt has spiraled out of control delivering preciously little incremental GDP.Deduct the wasteful debt and wasteful spending and there would be no growth whatsoever.

债务和 GDP 增长曲线在70年代后期开始分化,但是从2000年开始,债务已经失去控制,几乎没有带来 GDP 的增长。扣除浪费的债务和浪费的支出,就不会有任何增长。

Not only has there been no real GDP growth but even the nominal growth has to a crucial extent been provided for by means of the enormous government borrowings.We see from below table that that in each year from 2008 to 2017 even the nominal GDP growth has been less than the growth of government debt,with 2015 and 2015 as the only exceptions when they were on par.

不仅没有实际的国内生产总值增长,甚至名义增长在很大程度上也是通过巨额的政府借款提供的。从下表我们可以看到,从2008年到2017年,甚至名义国内生产总值的增长都低于政府债务的增长,2015年和2015年是唯一的例外。

危机中的世界新秩序

In the peak crisis years 2008 and 2009,debt growth was a staggering 5.7 and 6.3 times that of GDP growth.

在危机最严重的2008年和2009年,债务增长是 GDP 增长的5.7倍和6.3倍。

The debt game has been equally miserable all over the West,perhaps with the only exception of Germany,who has wisely refrained from participating,even when egged on by liberal economists calling Germany's more prudent policy unfair to the gambling nations.Below chart shows how much more the Western governments have borrowed than produced economic growth.The chart covers years 2004 to 2013,but the trend has been the same ever since.GDP growth has been vastly less than the growth of the colossal debtberg.

整个西方国家的债务游戏都一样糟糕,也许只有德国是个例外,即使在自由派经济学家的怂恿下,他们称德国更为谨慎的政策对赌博国家不公平,但德国明智地避免参与其中。下面的图表显示了西方国家政府的借贷比经济增长多了多少。图表涵盖了2004年到2013年,但是这个趋势一直没有改变。国内生产总值的增长一直远远低于巨大的债务堡的增长。

危机中的世界新秩序

Note Russia there as the shining exception.

注意那里的俄罗斯是个闪亮的例外。

Below chart ranks countries according to their debt burden relative to GDP.And again you see how debtless Russia is compared with the squandering nations.

下面是根据各国债务负担与 GDP 的比值对各国进行的排名。再一次,你可以看到无道德的俄罗斯与挥霍无度的国家相比是多么的不相上下。

危机中的世界新秩序

These charts concerned only government debt,when we add private debt to it,the picture is doubly worse.From the point of view of a national economy it really doesn't matter in which form the excess debt expands,public or private.In fact,on an average in the West the situation with household debt is equally dire.Below chart tells you just how bad.And again note Russia as the one shining exception.

这些图表只涉及政府债务,如果再加上私人债务,情况就更加糟糕了。从国民经济的角度来看,无论是公共债务还是私人债务,以何种形式扩张都无关紧要。事实上,平均而言,西方国家的家庭债务状况同样糟糕。下面的图表告诉你有多糟糕。再次强调俄罗斯是一个闪光的例外。

危机中的世界新秩序

And it's no better with corporations,which have throughout the last decade been enjoying mindboggling levels of central bank largesse in form of virtually unlimited interest-free financing.For example,compared to earnings,US bond issuers are about 50%more leveraged now than in 2007.

在过去的十年中,企业享受着央行令人难以置信的慷慨,实际上是无限制的无息融资。例如,与收益相比,美国债券发行人目前的杠杆比率比2007年高出约50%

Finally,there is the black hole containing trillions and trillions of bankers derivative risks. Deutsche Bank–which was recently placed in emergency care–alone is said to have 49 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives.These risks alone could take down the whole global financial system.

最后,还有一个黑洞,包含着数万亿甚至数万亿银行家的衍生品风险。德意志银行-最近被置于紧急护理-据说有49万亿美元的风险敞口的衍生品。仅仅这些风险就可能拖垮整个全球金融体系。

First no real interest,then on to negative yields

首先是没有真正的利息,然后是负收益

One of the many deadly side effects of the central bankers'practice on gambling with the national economies is that they first eliminated real interest rates(pushed rates below inflation)and then doubled down on the destruction of sound economic principles by cooking up a system with negative yielding bonds(bonds which yield below zero).By now$30 trillion of the$60 trillion US bond market yield below inflation(no real interest)and nearly$17 trillion worth of bonds are in negative yield territory.That's mostly made up by sovereign debt of Japan and European governments(12 at the moment)but recently the mass of negative yielding corporate bonds has also doubled to$1.2 trillion.Half of the$5 trillion worth of European government bonds sport a negative yield as well as 20%of European investment grade corporate bonds.

各国央行在与国民经济博弈方面的做法有许多致命的副作用,其中之一就是,它们首先消除了实际利率(将利率压低到通胀水平以下),然后通过炮制一个负收益债券(收益率低于零的债券)的体系,加大了对健全经济原则的破坏力度。到目前为止,美国债券市场60万亿美元低于通货膨胀率的收益中有30万亿美元(没有实际利息),价值近17万亿美元的债券处于负收益区域。这主要是由日本和欧洲政府的主权债务构成的(目前为12),但最近大量的负收益公司债券也翻了一番,达到1.2万亿美元。在价值5万亿欧元的欧洲政府债券中,有一半的收益率为负,而欧洲投资级公司债券的收益率为20%

Inflation risk

通胀风险

Normally,this kind of excess liquidity artificially put on the market(aka money printing)would have led to high inflation if not hyperinflation.Several factors have helped to keep prices in check.First,it needs to be pointed out,though,that inflation is actually a lot higher than what the government reports.This has been pretty convincingly proven in the case of the United States.Official statistics may not see it,but people sure feel it.

通常情况下,这种人为的流动性过剩(又称印钞)会导致高通胀,如果不是恶性通胀的话。有几个因素有助于控制价格。首先,需要指出的是,通货膨胀实际上比政府报告的要高得多。这在美国的案例中已经得到了相当令人信服的证明。官方统计数据可能看不出来,但人们肯定能感觉到。

Secondly,the asset price bubbles in real estate and financial markets in fact represent inflation,it's just not officially recorded as such.As it is only the 10%(and increasingly,the 1%)who get the money,they spend it on the stuff that counts for them,stocks and real estate.Keeping their loot offshore also helps to dampen inflation at home.The squeeze on the middle classes and stagnating wages,is sadly an important factor in keeping inflation down.Ordinary people just can't afford to buy.

其次,房地产和金融市场的资产价格泡沫实际上代表了通货膨胀,只是没有官方记录。由于只有10%的人(而且越来越多的是1%的人)得到了这笔钱,他们把钱花在了对自己有价值的东西上,比如股票和房地产。将战利品放在海外也有助于抑制国内的通货膨胀。令人遗憾的是,对中产阶级的压榨和停滞不前的工资,是抑制通胀的一个重要因素。普通人就是买不起。

One should also note,that resulting from the illusionary debt-fueled prosperity and its effect on keeping the local Western currencies artificially high,there has actually been an inflation in wages and production costs,but only in relative terms in comparison with the emerging world.This in turn has led to further offshoring of manufacturing jobs.

我们还应该注意到,由于债务驱动的虚幻繁荣及其对人为地保持当地西方货币高位的影响,实际上工资和生产成本都出现了通胀,但与新兴世界相比,只是相对而言。这反过来又导致制造业工作进一步离岸外包。

A crucial factor,which in the crazy money printing environment has kept consumer goods from hyperinflating has been imports from the emerging Asia and especially China.Huge growth of the Chinese manufacturing industry coupled with massive influx of cheap labor from the rural countryside into the cities enabled China for a couple of decades to constantly increase its exports to the US and Europe and these countries to keep prices down.(Including by domestic industries having to lower prices in competition).With the Trump trade wars and dramatically increasing protectionism,this will change.And it could get very ugly.

在疯狂的印钞环境中,阻止消费品过度膨胀的一个关键因素是来自新兴的亚洲,尤其是中国的进口。中国制造业的巨大增长,加上大量廉价劳动力从农村流入城市,使中国在几十年内不断增加对美国和欧洲的出口,这些国家的价格保持在低水平。(包括国内产业在竞争中必须降低价格)。随着特朗普的贸易战和贸易保护主义的急剧增加,这种情况将会改变。事情可能会变得非常糟糕。

Finally,there is an important consideration that few if anyone seem to understand.That is the fact that the US and other Western countries have been able to print the stupendous amounts of money while keeping rates down and without the currency values crashing only because they enjoy local currency monopolies in their respective territories.The USD has of course been enjoying a global monopoly,but that is fast fading.All the other factors mentioned above(and several other ones),have enabled to prop up and prolong these currency monopolies,but there is a limit to everything.In the coming recession,I would expect some of the lesser currencies to lose their monopoly trust and that would shatter the position of the bigger currencies USD and Euro and force them to raise interest rates.I have earlier written more in detail about this in a report titled How the Dollar and Euro Monopolies Destroyed the Real Market Economy.https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/dollar-euro-monopolies-destroyed-market-economy/

最后,还有一个重要的考虑,似乎很少有人能够理解。事实上,美国和其他西方国家之所以能够印刷如此巨额的货币,同时保持低利率,并且货币价值没有大幅贬值,仅仅是因为它们在各自的地区享有本币垄断地位。当然,美元一直享有全球垄断地位,但这种地位正在迅速消失。上面提到的所有其他因素(以及其他一些因素)都有助于支撑和延长这些货币垄断,但一切都是有限度的。在即将到来的经济衰退中,我预计一些较小的货币将失去它们的垄断信任,这将打破较大货币美元和欧元的地位,迫使它们提高利率。早些时候,我在一篇题为《美元和欧元垄断如何摧毁实体市场经济》的报告中对此做了更详细的阐述。Https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/dollar-euro-monopolies-destroyed-market-economy/

The below chart suggests that the Western countries are already on the way to lose their respective currency monopolies.The BRICS countries(Brazil,Russia,India,China,South Africa)now have a combined GDP(measured in PPP,which is the only correct way to measure the relative size of national economies)larger than not only the G7 countries,but the US and Eurozone economies combined.

下面的图表表明,西方国家已经开始失去各自的货币垄断地位。金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非)现在的 GDP 总和(以购买力平价衡量,这是衡量国家经济相对规模的唯一正确方法)不仅超过了七国集团(G7)国家,而且超过了美国和欧元区经济体的总和。

危机中的世界新秩序

At its foundation in 1973,the G7 countries had a combined GDP PPP of 50%of the world economy,by today it is down to 30%.In the same time the nominal GDP share of world economy has crashed from 80%to 40%.The currency monopolies came with the economic superiority,it is therefore only natural that with the economic domination goes the currency domination,too.If we haven't reached the tipping point yet,then that will happen within 5 to 10 years.

七国集团在1973年成立时,其国内生产总值购买力平价合计占世界经济的50%,到今天已降至30%。与此同时,世界经济的名义 GDP 份额从80%下降到40%。货币垄断伴随着经济优势,因此,随着经济优势的出现,货币优势也随之消失是很自然的事情。如果我们还没有达到21引爆流行,那么这将在510年内发生。

In summary,everything else unchanged,the risk of inflation picking up with just a few percentage points could have the entire Western financial systems coming crashing down due to the pressure on interest rates growing.The Fed and the ECB are continuously speaking about their inflation targets and how they want to pump the markets with more liquidity to raise inflation.There could yet be a big surprise in store for them.Interest rates as such could also be the primary trigger(even without inflation first rising),as nations would have to protect their currencies and attract financing for their colossal debtbergs.

总而言之,其他一切都没有变化,通货膨胀率上升几个百分点的风险可能会导致整个西方金融体系崩溃,这是由于利率上升的压力。美联储和欧洲央行一直在谈论它们的通胀目标,以及它们如何向市场注入更多流动性,以提高通胀率。对他们来说,可能还有一个大惊喜等着他们。这样的利率也可能成为主要触发因素(即使通胀率没有首先上升),因为各国将不得不保护本国货币,并为其巨额债务吸引融资。

Must add as a P.S.that the incipient flight to gold might well be one of the trigger events for those currencies to lose their monopolies.(Gold price is up 20%since May).

必须补充的一点是,刚刚开始的黄金外逃很可能是这些货币失去垄断地位的触发事件之一。(黄金价格自5月份以来上涨了20%)

Deleveraging will come

去杠杆化即将到来

These massive borrowings have delivered nothing of tangible value.Now,when the party is nearly over all there is left are the debt bubbles that have hit the roof.The real values of all the assets below bear no relation to the money that went into inflating the balloons.What's left is economic hardship for 80%of the people,a crumbling infrastructure and simmering social tensions.

这些巨额借款没有带来任何有形价值。现在,当派对接近尾声时,剩下的就是触顶的债务泡沫。下面所有资产的实际价值与用来吹气球的钱没有任何关系。剩下的就是80%的人的经济困难,破败的基础设施和蓄势待发的社会紧张。

The debt saturation point has been reached,therefore this time it will be different,the central bankers have lost their magic wand and won't be able to renew the debt binge and extend it with one more decade.Instead,there will be a day of reckoning.Governments and corporations will have to put their act together and let the market weed out the failed entities.Those who cannot carry the debt,will have to shed it.There will be bloodbath with defaults,bankruptcies and massive unemployment.–Perhaps a revolution here and there.–There will be no choice,deleveraging must happen.

债务饱和点已经达到,因此这一次会有所不同----中央银行已经失去了他们的魔杖,无法再次掀起债务狂潮,并将其延长10年。相反,总有一天要清算的。政府和企业将不得不共同行动,让市场淘汰失败的实体。那些无力偿还债务的人将不得不摆脱债务。违约、破产和大规模失业将是一场大屠杀。也许这里那里会有一场革命。我们别无选择,必须去杠杆化。

Now,whether this system will come crashing down or just slowly die as it trundles downhill will not matter all that much.It will eventually die either way.Most people would prefer the slow motion option,but only with the crash would a cure come.Whatever,it has become increasingly difficult to stave off the crash and this time around,the financial markets would take the real economy down with them big time.

现在,无论这个系统会崩溃,还是只是缓慢死亡,因为它下坡将不会有太大的问题。不管怎样,它最终都会消亡。大多数人更喜欢慢动作的选择,但只有伴随着崩溃才能治愈。无论如何,避免经济崩溃已变得越来越困难,而这一次,金融市场将把实体经济拖下水。

The impressive figures on Russia

俄罗斯令人印象深刻的数字

The question then is,who would be left standing?Naturally,those who are less leveraged.Now,scroll back to have a new look at the above charts on government and household debt.Find the position of Russia there?That's right.Russia is the country with–by far–the least debt,both public and private.Having after 2014 following sanctions been cut off from the Western debt orgy,even Russian corporations are shielded against a possible Western debt apocalypse.

那么,问题是,谁会站在那里?当然,那些杠杆率较低的企业。现在,让我们重新看看上面关于政府和家庭债务的图表。在那里找到俄罗斯的位置?没错。到目前为止,俄罗斯是公共和私人债务最少的国家。2014年之后,西方国家停止了对俄罗斯的债务狂欢,就连俄罗斯企业也免受西方债务灾难的影响。

In a global recession,no country is safe,but Russia looks to have quite a lot going for it in terms of economic advantages.Russia's national balance sheet is next to none with by far the lowest debt of all major countries.All economic actors,the government,corporations and households are economically solid and minimally leveraged.Not only is the government virtually debtless,but it has again replenished its spectacular forex and sovereign wealth fund reserves.On top of that comes a hefty budget surplus.–Yes,you heard that right,surplus.In a time when all Western countries are in a chronic fight against deficits,you rarely even hear the term budget surplus.And more,Russia runs the world's third biggest trade surplus.Add to that the current account surplus,and there's the hat trick in form of your classic triple surpluses.Russia has a lot more going for it,too,as we will see.

在全球经济衰退中,没有一个国家是安全的,但俄罗斯看起来在经济优势方面有相当多的优势。俄罗斯的国家资产负债表几乎为零,其债务在所有主要国家中是最低的。所有的经济行为者,包括政府、企业和家庭,经济都很稳固,杠杆率也很低。中国政府不仅几乎没有任何债务,而且还再次补充了其惊人的外汇和主权财富基金储备。除此之外,还有巨额的预算盈余。-是的,你听到了,多余的。在所有西方国家都长期与赤字作斗争的时候,你甚至很少听到"预算盈余"这个词。此外,俄罗斯拥有世界第三大贸易顺差。再加上经常账户盈余,经典的三重盈余就上演了帽子戏法。正如我们将要看到的,俄罗斯也有很多优势。

Let's look at Russia's present financial health report.

来看俄罗斯目前的财经健康报道。

Thanks to import substitution(domestic production instead of imports to neutralize sanctions)Russia's industrial production rose 2.6%year-on-year in June.(USA+1.1%,UK+0.8%,Japan-2.4%,Germany-5.9%).Above,we mentioned that US industrial production was up with as little as a cumulative 5%since 2008 to date.In the same period Russia's industry grew 18%notwithstanding the hardships of sanctions and sharp drop in oil price.In fact,since 2014 when the sanctions were first imposed,Russia's industry has grown 12%.

由于进口替代(国内生产而不是进口以抵消制裁),俄罗斯6月份的工业生产同比增长了2.6%(美国上升1.1%,英国上升0.8%,日本下降2.4%,德国下降5.9%)。上面我们提到,自2008年至今,美国的工业生产仅累计增长了5%。在同一时期,俄罗斯的工业增长了18%,尽管经历了制裁的困难和油价的大幅下跌。事实上,自2014年第一次实施制裁以来,俄罗斯的工业增长了12%

Russia's merchandise trade surplus for the first half of 2019 was$93 billion,ranking third in the world after China and Germany and before South Korea.Imports were down by 3%,the other side of the coin of growing domestic manufacturing.Even when exports also were slightly down,lower imports will keep the surplus on track to reach levels near$200 billion for the full year,just under last year's record$212 billion.

2019年上半年,俄罗斯的商品贸易顺差为930亿美元,位居世界第三,仅次于中国、德国和韩国。进口下降了3%,这是国内制造业增长的另一面。即使出口也略有下降,较低的进口将使全年顺差保持在接近2000亿美元的水平,略低于去年创纪录的2120亿美元。

Q1 current account surplus clocked in at$33 billion,up 10%over the year.

第一季度经常账户盈余达到330亿美元,同比增长10%

In this connection,it might be helpful to remind that Russia's economy is nowhere near as dependent on fossil fuel extraction as it is habitually believed in the West.In fact,oil and gas only account for 10%of Russia's GDP according to World Bank statistics.(In 2017,total natural resources share of GDP was 10.7%,but that includes minerals and forest,too).

在这方面,也许有必要提醒一下,俄罗斯经济对化石燃料开采的依赖程度远不及西方国家习惯上所认为的那样。事实上,根据世界银行的统计,石油和天然气仅占俄罗斯 GDP 10%(2017年,自然资源总量占 GDP 10.7%,但这也包括矿产和森林)

We also need to point out that Russia has an enormous strength by way of being the world's most self-sufficient major country.Russia has the by far lowest level of imports relative to GDP of all countries,as evidenced by below table.It shows that Russia's imports as a share of GDP was as low as 7.2%,while the corresponding level for Western European countries was between 30 to 40%.The extraordinary low levels of imports in a global comparison obviously signifies that Russia produces domestically a much higher share of all that it consumes(and invests),this in turn means that the economy is superbly diversified contrary to the claims of most so-called Russia experts.

我们还需要指出,俄罗斯作为世界上最自给自足的大国,拥有巨大的实力。在所有国家中,俄罗斯的进口额相对于国内生产总值是最低的,如下表所示。结果表明,俄罗斯的进口占 GDP 的比重低至7.2%,而西欧国家的相应水平在30%40%之间。在全球比较中,进口水平极低,这显然意味着俄罗斯的国内生产占其全部消费(和投资)的比例要高得多,这反过来意味着,与大多数所谓的俄罗斯专家的说法相反,俄罗斯经济的多样化程度非常高。

危机中的世界新秩序

Despite initial scares,inflation has remained low even when the VAT rate was from the new year raised from 18%to 20%.The rolling 12-month inflation runs at 4.6%but with the declining trend the full year inflation is expected to hit the central bank's target 4%.

尽管最初的恐慌,通货膨胀仍然保持在低水平,即使增值税率从新年的18%提高到20%。连续12个月的通货膨胀率为4.6%,但随着下降趋势,预计全年通货膨胀率将达到央行的目标4%

The job market continues strong with record low unemployment levels,while the job participation rate has not deteriorated(so no tricks here).The July reading of 4.6%translates to 3.4 million unemployed,which is low for a country with a population of 146 million.The strength of the labor market was underscored by an increase of real salaries by 3.5%by July.This while disposable income otherwise has remained subdued.

就业市场持续强劲,失业率处于历史最低水平,而就业参与率并未恶化(所以这里没有什么花招)7月份失业率为4.6%,相当于340万人,对于一个拥有1.46亿人口的国家来说,这个数字很低。到7月份,实际工资增长了3.5%,强调了劳动力市场的强劲。这一可支配收入在其他方面都保持低调。

Whereas the US is combating persistent budget deficits(latest reading,a deficit of 4.5%of GDP)–likewise the EU countries–Russia mustered a huge budget surplus equal to 3.4%of the GDP by July this year.

鉴于美国正在与持续的预算赤字作斗争(最新数据显示,赤字占 GDP 4.5%)——欧盟国家也是如此——到今年7月,俄罗斯的巨额预算盈余相当于 GDP 3.4%

Russia's foreign exchange and gold reserves have also done a spectacular comeback reaching$520 billion.

俄罗斯的外汇和黄金储备也出现了惊人的回升,达到5200亿美元。

The Russia sovereign wealth fund surged in July to reach a value equal to 7.2%of GDP.

俄罗斯主权财富基金7月份飙升至相当于 GDP 7.2%的价值。

Despite the wholesome macroeconomic environment and impressive figures,Russia's GDP growth has been less than 1%so far this year(year-on-year 0.6%in Q1 and 0.9%in Q2).However,by the looks of it the fundamental economy seems to be growing and modernizing,while the drag on the growth comes from depressed household consumption.What's more important,though,is that while Russia's growth is hovering around the 1%,so is that of all of the Western world.(Accuse me of whataboutism if you will,but these things need to be put in perspective).Q2 growth in the Eurozone was 1.1%,with Germany even about to slide into recession.UK clocked in at 1.2%and Japan at 0.4%.(All figures,year-on-year).The US showed only 2%(revised down 28 August)even when fueled by a mountainous budget deficit set to reach$1 trillion for the fiscal year and despite all that easy money the Fed keeps pumping out.Only China remained firmly in growth territory with 6.2%.

尽管宏观经济环境良好,数据令人印象深刻,但今年迄今为止,俄罗斯的 GDP 增长率还不到1%(第一季度同比增长0.6%,第二季度同比增长0.9%)。然而,从表面上看,基础经济似乎正在增长和现代化,而增长的拖累来自不景气的家庭消费。更重要的是,虽然俄罗斯的增长率徘徊在1%左右,但整个西方世界的增长率也在1%左右。(如果你愿意,可以指责我的偏袒,但这些事情需要正确看待。)。欧元区第二季度经济增长率为1.1%,德国甚至即将陷入衰退。英国为1.2%,日本为0.4%(所有数据,按年计算)。尽管本财年预算赤字将达到1万亿美元,而且美联储一直在大量注入宽松货币,但美国的预算赤字仅为2%(828日修正后)。只有中国保持了6.2%的稳定增长。

But,the real conundrum is,how can Russia produce the same GDP as all the Western countries with their seemingly limitless injections of give-away money?How is it possible that all those trillions and trillions that the Western central bankers have thrown on the economy do not produce any real incremental economic output?

但是,真正的难题是,俄罗斯如何才能创造出与所有西方国家一样的 GDP,而且这些国家似乎无限地注入捐赠资金?西方国家的中央银行家们在经济上投入的数万亿美元怎么可能不产生任何真正的增量经济产出呢?

The big disadvantage Russia has compared with the Western countries is the exorbitant real interest rate that the central bank maintains.The steering rate is presently 7.25%,with inflation predicted to be 4%,that translates into a primary real interest of 3.25%.Compare that with the negative real interest–and even negative yields–of competitor countries.As,the Russian central bank has failed to create a real banking sector which would lend according to international standards to the country's businesses,the ones that are lucky to get a loan at all would look to pay interest at the level of 15%of more(save the largest corporations).The Governor of the Russian Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina does not see this as a problem,though.She has said that instead she would pin her hopes on improving the countries investment climate(sic!).(She calls for improvement of corporate governance,development of human capital,and all kinds of nice things.That would sure do it.)

与西方国家相比,俄罗斯的最大劣势是中央银行维持过高的实际利率。转向率目前为7.25%,通货膨胀率预计为4%,这意味着基本实际利率为3.25%。相比之下,竞争对手的实际利率为负,甚至收益率为负。由于俄罗斯央行未能创建一个真正的银行部门,根据国际标准向该国企业放贷,那些有幸获得贷款的企业将支付15%以上的利息(除了最大的公司)。然而,俄罗斯中央银行埃尔维拉·纳比乌里娜并不认为这是一个问题。她曾表示,相反,她将把希望寄托在改善各国的投资环境上(原文如此).(她呼吁改善公司治理,发展人力资本,以及各种各样的美好事物。这肯定会起作用。)

Just this week,Putin called a high profile meeting with Nabiullina,the minister for economic development Maxim Oreshkin,and the finance minister Anton Sulanov,to express his deep concern with the sluggish GDP growth and stagnating income.No doubt,that the depressed income is not only a drag on the economy but on the president's popularity.There is only one quick fix for it.The government and the CBR must ditch their overzealous austerity programs.It's good that Russia is not over leveraged with debt,but certainly some debt would be in order to finance the infrastructure and other national strategic development programs instead of ripping it off people's backs.Free the funds for raising pensions and public service salaries instead.And most importantly,Nabiullina must lower the rates and not run real interests in excess of 3%when the rest of the developed world is in negative territory.There is no other quick remedy for raising people's income.That's Putin's choice.Hope somebody tells that to him.

就在本周,普京高调会见了经济发展部长马克西姆·奥列什金和财政部长安东·苏拉诺夫,表达了他对 GDP 增长缓慢和收入停滞的深切关注。毫无疑问,低迷的收入不仅拖累了经济,也影响了总统的声望。只有一个快速解决办法。政府和 CBR 必须放弃他们过分热衷的紧缩计划。俄罗斯没有过度举债是件好事,但肯定会有一些债务是用来为基础设施和其他国家战略发展项目提供资金,而不是剥削人民的利益。取而代之的是免费提供养老金和公务员工资。最重要的是,纳比乌利纳必须降低利率,在其他发达国家处于负利率的情况下,实际利率不能超过3%。提高人们的收入没有其他快速的补救办法。这是普京的选择。希望有人告诉他这些。

In conclusion,we are not saying that Russia would not be hurt by the coming recession,we merely express our confidence that Russia is among the world's countries best placed to cope with it.

最后,我们并不是说俄罗斯不会受到即将到来的经济衰退的伤害,我们只是表示我们相信,俄罗斯是世界上最有能力应对经济衰退的国家之一。

来源:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/new-world-order-meltdown

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  • 本文由 发表于 2019年9月3日11:11:22
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