美联储是否正在失去对黄金价格的控制?

2019年8月14日10:31:53美联储是否正在失去对黄金价格的控制?已关闭评论 671 4507字阅读15分1秒

After years of being kept in the doldrums by orchestrated short selling described on this website by Roberts and Kranzler,gold has lately moved up sharply reaching$1,510 this morning.

在罗伯茨和克兰兹勒在网站上描述的精心安排的卖空操作下,多年来黄金一直处于低迷状态,今天早上,黄金价格急剧上涨,达到每盎司1510美元。

The gold price has continued to rise despite the continuing practice of dumping large volumes of naked contracts in the futures market.The gold price is driven down but quickly recovers and moves on up.I haven't an explanation at this time for the new force that is more powerful than the short-selling that has been used to control the price of gold.

尽管在期货市场继续存在大量无担保合约的做法,但黄金价格仍继续上涨。黄金价格下跌,但很快复苏,并继续上涨。目前我还没有一个解释,为什么这股新势力比用于控制黄金价格的卖空交易更为强大。

Various central banks have been converting their dollar reserves into gold,which reduces the demand for dollars and increases the demand for gold.Existing stocks of gold available to fill orders are being drawn down,and new mining output is not keeping pace with the rise in demand.Perhaps this is the explanation for the rise in the price of gold.

各国央行纷纷将其美元储备转换为黄金,从而减少了对美元的需求,增加了对黄金的需求。现有的黄金库存正在减少,新开采的黄金产量跟不上需求的增长。也许这就是黄金价格上涨的原因。


During the many years of Quantitative Easing the exchange value of the dollar was protected by the Japanese,British,and EU central banks also printing money to insure that their currencies did not rise in value relative to the dollar.The Federal Reserve needs to protect the dollar's exchange value so that it continues in its role as the world's reserve currency in which international transactions are conducted.

在多年的量化宽松政策中,美元的汇率受到日本、英国和欧盟央行的保护,这些央行也在印制钞票,以确保它们的货币相对于美元不会升值。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)需要保护美元的汇率,使其继续作为国际交易的全球储备货币。

If the dollar loses this role,the US will lose the ability to pay its bills by printing dollars.A dollar declining in value relative to other countries would cause flight from the dollar to the rising currencies.Catastrophe quickly occurs from increasing the supply of a currency that central banks are unwilling to hold.

如果美元失去这一角色,美国将失去通过印刷美元来偿还债务的能力。美元相对于其他国家的贬值将导致资金从美元流向不断升值的货币。如果增加央行不愿持有的货币供应量,灾难很快就会发生。

One problem remained.The dollar was depreciating relative to gold.Rigging the currency market was necessary but not sufficient to stabilize the dollar's value.The gold market also had to be rigged.

还有一个问题。美元相对于黄金贬值。操纵货币市场是必要的,但不足以稳定美元的价值。黄金市场也不得不受到操纵。

To stop the dollar's depreciation,naked short selling has been used to artificially increase the supply of paper gold in order to suppress the price.Unlike equities,gold shorts don't have to be covered.This turns the price-setting gold futures market into a paper market where contracts are settled primarily in cash and not by taking delivery of gold.

为了阻止美元贬值,裸卖空被用来人为地增加纸黄金的供应以压低价格。与股票不同,黄金空头不需要进行担保。这将黄金期货市场变成了一个纸面市场,合约主要以现金结算,而不是通过交割黄金来结算。

Therefore,participants can increase the supply of the paper gold traded in the futures market by printing new contracts.When large numbers of contracts are suddenly dumped in the market,the sudden increase in paper gold supply drives down the price.This has worked until now.

因此,参与者可以通过印刷新的合约来增加在期货市场交易的纸黄金的供应。当大量合约突然在市场上被抛售时,纸黄金供应的突然增加推低了价格。直到现在,这种方法还是有效的。

If flight from the dollar is beginning,it will make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to accommodate the growing US budget deficit and continue its policy of lowering interest rates.With central banks moving their reserves from dollars(US Treasury bonds and bills)to gold,the demand for US government debt is not keeping up with supply.

如果资金开始逃离美元,美联储(fed)将难以适应美国不断增长的预算赤字,并继续实施降息政策。随着各国央行将其外汇储备从美元(美国国债和票据)转向黄金,对美国国债的需求无法满足供应。

The supply will be increasing due to the$1.5 trillion US budget deficit.The Federal Reserve will have to take up the gap between the amount of new debt that has to be issued and the amount that can be sold by purchasing the difference.

由于美国1.5万亿美元的预算赤字,供应将会增加。美联储将不得不承担必须发行的新债务数额与可以通过购买差额出售的债务数额之间的差额。

In other words,the Fed will print more money with which to purchase the unsold portion of the new debt.

换句话说,美联储将印刷更多的钱来购买未售出的新债务。

The creation of more dollars when the dollar is experiencing pressure puts more downward pressure on the dollar.To protect the dollar,that is,to make it again attractive to investors and central banks,the Federal Reserve would have to raise interest rates substantially.

当美元面临压力时,创造更多的美元会给美元带来更大的下行压力。为了保护美元,也就是说,为了让它再次对投资者和央行具有吸引力,美联储将不得不大幅提高利率。

If the US economy is in recession or moving toward recession,the cost of rising interest rates would be high in terms of unemployment.

如果美国经济陷入衰退或走向衰退,就失业率而言,利率上升的代价将会很高。

With a rising price of gold,who would want to hold debt denominated in a rapidly depreciating currency when interest rates are low,zero,or negative?

随着黄金价格的上涨,当利率处于低位、零利率或负值时,谁会愿意持有以迅速贬值的货币计价的债券呢?

The Federal Reserve might have no awareness of the pending crisis that it has set up for itself.On the other hand,the Federal Reserve is responsive to the elite who want to rid themselves of Trump.Collapsing the economy on Trump's head is one way to prevent his reelection.

美国联邦储备委员会(fed,美联储)可能并不知道它为自己准备的这场迫在眉睫的危机。另一方面,美联储(fed)对那些希望摆脱特朗普的精英做出了回应。将经济崩溃压在特朗普头上是阻止他连任的一种方法。

来源:http://humansarefree.com/2019/08/is-federal-reserve-losing-control-of.html

  • 本文由 发表于 2019年8月14日10:31:53
  • 除非特殊声明,本站文章均来自网络,转载请务必保留本文链接