市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

2020年3月10日20:30:10市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停已关闭评论 1.3K4558字阅读15分11秒
摘要

更新(2020ET):就是这样:自金融危机以来,标准普尔指数期货首次触及-5%的下限区间,即使在2010年5月的闪电暴跌期间也未能做到这一点。

Update(2020ET):And there it is:for the first time since the financial crisis,the emini S&P future has hit the limit down band of-5%,something it failed to do even during the May 2010 flash crash.

更新(2020ET):就是这样:自金融危机以来,标准普尔指数期货首次触及-5%的下限区间,即使在20105月的闪电暴跌期间也未能做到这一点。

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

This means that no more trade are allowed below the limit down level until the market opens at 9:30 am ET(assuming it opens of course).Trades higher are still permitted,naturally,however that will probably not be a great comfort to all those who are rushing to liquidate with reckless abandon.But fear not:with the S&P now down more than 17%from its all-time highs just two weeks earlier,and just shy of a bear market,those who want to sell will have ample opportunity to do so in the days ahead.

这意味着在东部时间上午9:30市场开市之前,不允许再有低于限价的交易(当然前提是开市)。当然,更高的交易仍然是允许的,但是这对于那些不计后果地仓促结算的人来说可能不会是一个很大的安慰。但不用担心:标准普尔指数已经从两周前的历史高点下跌了17%以上,刚刚接近熊市,那些希望抛售的人在未来几天将有充足的机会这样做。

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

Following what may have been the most drama-filled weekend since"Lehman Sunday",in which we saw not only another major spike in covid cases around Europe and the US,but also the total collapse of OPEC after Saudi Arabia unilaterally decided to flood the market with deeply discounted oil in a desperate attempt to crush the competition(yet which may backfire and soon lead to riots in Riyadh),markets are reacting appropriately and just like during Lehman Sunday,everything is crashing:

在什么可能是最充满戏剧性的周末周日"雷曼"以来,我们不仅看到另一个主要的激增冠状病例在欧洲和美国,也是石油输出国组织(OPEC)的总崩溃,仅次于沙特阿拉伯单方面决定涌入市场低折扣的石油,不顾一切地粉碎竞争(还可能适得其反,很快导致骚乱在利雅得),市场适当的反应,就像雷曼周日期间,一切都崩溃:

    S&P emini futures are down more than 4%in early trading,plunging as low as 2,845 and fast approaching their limit down price of 2,819 as investors around the world puke risk in an unprecedented fashion.

标准普尔指数期货在早盘交易中下跌超过4%,跌至2845点,并迅速接近2819点的跌停点,全球投资者都在以前所未有的方式冒着令人作呕的风险

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

    Dow futures are down more than 1,000 points unwinding all of Friday's remarkable late-day rally and then some...

道琼斯指数期货下跌超过1000点,平息了上周五尾盘引人注目的涨势,然后..

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

    VIX futures are up 16%,so one can only imagine where spot will be soon.

波动率指数期货上涨了16%,因此人们只能想象现货将很快出现在哪里

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

    With everyone rushing into safety, rates are soaring and the Ultra bond future is already up a gargantuan 7 to 232-16 in a squeeze that will surely lead to the failure of more than one macro fund still short the long-end, while the 10Y yield is on pace to hit a record all time low of 0.50%, one which screams recession.

随着所有投资者纷纷转向安全资产,利率正在飙升,而超级债券(Ultra bond)的期货价格已经大幅上涨了7% 至232-16% ,这种挤压势必导致不止一只仍在做空长期基金的宏观基金破产,而10年期国债收益率有望触及0.50% 的历史低点,这一水平预示着经济将陷入衰退。

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

    Naturally,the oil complex is imploding,with WTI down 27%to$30...

自然,石油联合企业正在内爆,WTI 下跌27%,至30美元.....

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

...while Brent has dropped as much as 31%,to just$33 in early Sunday trading in what Bloomberg dubbed"one of the most dramatic bouts of selling ever"...

布伦特原油价格下跌了31%,在周日早盘交易中跌至33美元,彭博社称之为"有史以来最戏剧性的一轮抛售".....

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

...and indeed,today's move is the biggest one-day drop in Brent on record.

事实上,今天的行动是布伦特原油价格有史以来最大的单日跌幅。

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

...in line with Goldman's shocking price target cut,which now expected Brent dropping into the$20s.

...与高盛令人震惊的降价目标一致——目前预计布伦特原油价格将跌至每桶20美元。

FX,as discussed earlier,is in freefall,with carry trades getting unwound,while commodity pairs are getting anihilated:

正如前面讨论的那样,外汇市场处于自由落体状态,套利交易逐渐平仓,而大宗商品对价格逐渐失去作用:

Finally,gold,also known to certain WSJ"experts"as a pet rock,it just spiked above$1,700 for the first time since 2012.

最后,黄金,也被某些华尔街日报"专家"称为宠物石,自2012年以来首次突破1700美元。

市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

What happens now?Well,earlier today Morgan Stanley said that to stabilize markets,the Fed would need to announce not only a rate cut but also resume official QE...

现在怎么办?今天早些时候,摩根士丹利表示,为了稳定市场,美联储不仅需要宣布降息,还需要恢复正式的量化宽松政策..

We believe equity markets will struggle until policy-makers get back ahead of the curve with more interest rate cuts and an extension of the current balance sheet expansion and/or an official quantitative easing program–something we think is likely coming

我们认为,在政策制定者进一步降息、延长当前的资产负债表扩张和/或出台官方定量宽松计划(我们认为这些措施很可能即将出台),重新走在曲线前面之前,股市将举步维艰

...and with spot VIX likely set to trip 60 or more,the Fed will need to do something or risk another Great Depression,although how sending nominal bond yields into negative territory across the board will help markets remains to be seen.Maybe the Fed's time has finally run out?

现货波动率指数可能跌至60或以上,美联储将需要采取行动,否则将面临另一场大萧条的风险,尽管将名义债券收益率全面推向负值区域将如何帮助市场仍有待观察。也许美联储的时间终于用完了?

Or maybe Trump-who provoked the market gods one too many times with his relentless stock market boasts as stocks hit artificial high after artificial high-actually has something up his sleeve,because moments after futures opened,he tweeted a rather cryptic"nothing can stop what's coming."

或者,特朗普——他无休止的股市自吹自擂,让股市在人为的高点之后达到人为的高点——实际上有所图谋,因为在期货开盘后不久,他在推特上发了一条相当隐晦的"没有什么能阻止即将到来的事情"市场大屠杀:油价暴跌30%,波动率指数暴涨,标准普尔指数跌停

We'll see about that:One thing is certain:markets and traders will be closely watching and waiting everything that is coming,after more than a decade of Fed-inspired complacency,as price discovery finally returns with a bang.

我们将拭目以待:有一件事是肯定的:市场和交易员将密切关注和等待一切即将到来的事情,在美联储激发的自满情绪持续了十多年之后,价格发现终于带来了巨大的回报。

来源:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-massacre-oil-crashes-30-dow-down-1000-points-vix-explodes-es-craters

zhunbeizhuanbian
  • 本文由 发表于 2020年3月10日20:30:10
  • 除非特殊声明,本站文章均来自网络,转载请务必保留本文链接