2019年11月20日10:37:48“欧洲央行成员暗示央行将在形势变得“非常糟糕”时买入股票已关闭评论 490 7630字阅读25分26秒

爱沙尼亚央行(Bank of Estonia)行长、欧洲央行政策制定者马迪斯•穆勒(Madis Muller)给出了答案。穆勒基本上暗示,欧洲央行很有可能在下一次衰退期间买进股票。他表示,如果欧元区的经济形势明显恶化,欧洲央行可能会扩大其资产购买计划。

Following last month's IMF summit where central bankers from around the world conceded the negative rates no longer stimulate the global economy,the ECB's new head,convicted criminal Christine Lagarde has found herself in a quandary:besides demanding a fiscal stimulus boost from Germany,one which is unlikely to come for at least another 6 months now that Berlin narrowly avoided a technical recession,what else can she demand to stimulate Europe's moribund growth at a time when Europe's key offshore growth dynamo,China,is not only set to grow at the slowest pace on record but is furiously exporting deflation?


The answer came on Saturday courtesy of ECB policy maker Madis Muller,the governor of the Bank of Estonia,who essentially hinted that the ECB could very well buy stocks during the next recession,saying that the central bank could broadened its asset-purchase program,if the economic situation in the euro area deteriorates significantly.

上周六,爱沙尼亚央行(Bank of Estonia)行长、欧洲央行政策制定者马迪斯穆勒(Madis Muller)给出了答案。穆勒基本上暗示,欧洲央行很有可能在下一次衰退期间买进股票。他表示,如果欧元区的经济形势明显恶化,欧洲央行可能会扩大其资产购买计划。

"Right now,we are doing unconventional things,"he told students at a Bundesbank event in Frankfurt on Saturday."You could-of course-imagine even more unconventional things if the situation gets really bad",which it will of course with slow motion trainwreck Christine Lagarde at its helm whose crowning achievement was approving the IMF's biggest loan on record to Argentina just a few months before the Latin American nation made it clear it is headed for another default.While Muller declined to cite which specific assets the ECB would buy next,the answer is clear-as Larry Fink said point blank in July,the ECB will buy stocks next to somehow stimulate the European economy,when in reality all it will do is stimulate the bank accounts of those Europeans lucky enough to own stocks.

"现在,我们正在做非传统的事情,"他在周六法兰克福德国央行的一次活动上对学生们说。当然,如果形势变得非常糟糕的话,你可以想象出更多非常规的事情。当然,随着慢镜头的破坏,克里斯蒂娜·拉加德掌舵,其最高成就是批准了国际货币基金组织向阿根廷提供的有史以来最大的贷款,仅仅几个月后,这个拉丁美洲国家就明确表示,它将面临另一次违约。尽管穆勒拒绝透露欧洲央行下一步将购买哪些具体资产,但答案是明确的——正如拉里芬克(Larry Fink)7月份明确表示的那样,欧洲央行下一步将购买股票,以某种方式刺激欧洲经济,而实际上,它将做的只是刺激那些有幸拥有股票的欧洲人的银行账户。

Ironically,Muller opposed September's decision to resume ECB net asset purchases.Even so,he cited the Japanese and Swiss central banks as examples of policy makers pursuing wider stimulus efforts than in the euro zone-of course,both central banks openly purchase both stocks and ETFs;in fact,as we reported just a few days ago,the SNB now owns a record$93.2 billion in US stocks after a Q3 buying spree.

具有讽刺意味的是,穆勒反对9月份欧洲央行恢复净资产购买的决定。即便如此,他还是以日本和瑞士央行为例,说明决策者采取了比欧元区更广泛的刺激措施——当然,两国央行都公开购买股票和 etf;事实上,正如我们几天前报道的那样,在第三季度的疯狂购买之后,瑞士央行目前拥有创纪录的932亿美元美国股票。

Muller spoke as the ECB continues to struggle to revive inflation through stimulus measures,while also running the risk of hitting self-imposed limits on how many bonds it can buy from each of the euro zone's 19 member governments.As we reported one month ago,the ECB now has roughly 10 months left of German bond purchases before it hits a brick wall and is forced to change its self-imposed sovereign debt financing debt purchasing rules.


There"are ways to go beyond the government bonds,and a little bit of corporates and other assets that we are buying now,"Muller said.And while he didn't recommend it,it was clear that someone higher up in the food chain wood.

Muller 表示,"除了政府债券以及我们现在正在购买的一些企业和其它资产,还有其它途径."。虽然他并不推荐这种方法,但很明显,这些人在食物链的上层。

Mueller is not the first to suggest the ECB can and will expand its universe of eligible assets.Aside from several Reuters trial balloons,back in May 2016,in a moment of what appeared to be either drunken insanity or brutal honesty,Lithuania's central banker and ECB member Vitas Vasiliauskas said that"we still have a lot of tools and we can make surprises for the market.I don't see for the moment any need for a new rabbit because we should implement what was agreed,what was announced."

穆勒并不是第一个暗示欧洲央行能够而且将会扩大其合格资产范围的人。20165月,除了路透社的几个试探性气球外,立陶宛央行行长、欧洲央行成员维塔斯瓦西里奥斯卡斯(Vitas Vasiliauskas)表示:"我们仍有很多工具,我们可以为市场制造惊喜。我认为目前没有必要再养一只兔子,因为我们应该执行已经达成的协议,执行已经宣布的协议。"

Vasiliauskas'punchline:"Markets say the ECB is done,their box is empty.But we are magic people.Each time we take something and give to the markets-a rabbit out of the hat."


Stay off the drugs,Vitas.


Meanwhile,just to prove him right,the ECB is once again buying€20 billion euros of bonds per month after amassing€2.6 trillion during previous rounds of purchases that ended last year,yet was restarted after just 10 months.Coupled with the Fed's own$60 billion/month in T-Bill purchases,the Fed and ECB will buy a near record$420 billion in assets next 6 months according to Bank of America.


And still it won't be enough,forcing the world's biggest hedge fund also known as the ECB,to start openly buying stocks.


Once it starts,it is unclear when-and if-it will ever stop:the European central bank has pledged to continue quantitative easing until inflation is firmly within its target of just under 2%,something that its own forecasts don't foresee until at least 2021.Furthermore,as European investors and corporations are incentivized to buy stocks instead of investing in growth and spending money on capex,asset prices will promptly surge even as broader economy inflation slides to zero and eventually turns into outright deflation.


Separately,Muller,who is the youngest member of the ECB's Governing Council at 42,said the central bank needs to think about how low it wants to push government bond yields and what"benefits"that would bring.Of course,one can just ask any European bank about those benefits.Or not:as we reported yesterday,as of this moment,Disney alone has a market cap greater than the capitalization of Europe's top 5 biggest banks.

另外,42岁的穆勒是欧洲央行管理委员会(Governing Council)最年轻的成员。他表示,欧洲央行需要考虑,它希望将政府债券收益率推至多低的水平,以及这样做会带来什么"好处"。当然,人们可以向任何一家欧洲银行询问这些福利。或者不是:正如我们昨天报道的那样,截至目前,仅迪斯尼的市值就超过了欧洲前五大银行的市值。

Muller also noted the usual disclaimers the precede any episode of full-blown equity purchases by an entity that literally prints money out of thin air,stating that policy makers also have to be"aware of different side effects and think twice before you do something,"particularly given how many unconventional steps the ECB has already taken.


We are confident that just like years and years of BIS warnings,the young central banker's attempt to instill some caution among his peers will be for nothing.


Having very low interest rates"makes sense"in the current economic situation,said Muller,who was in favor of the decision to reduce the deposit rate to minus 0.5%in September.Still,going much further may not help as Bundesbank head Weidmann stated on Friday,when he said that rates are close to the lower bound,i.e.,that the ECB's reversal rate-or the rate below any further rate cuts become a headwind to the economy-is fast approaching.

在当前的经济形势下,拥有非常低的利率"是有道理的"Muller 说,他支持9月份将存款利率降低到-0.5%的决定。尽管如此,正如德国央行行长魏德曼(Weidmann)上周五表示的那样,走得更远可能无济于事。魏德曼当时表示,利率已接近下限,也就是说,欧洲央行的逆转利率——或低于任何进一步降息的利率——正在迅速逼近。

"There is a question of how low you can go,"he said."At some point you could be facing a question of how effective it is."


For rates that is;because somehow when it comes to buying bonds,both sovereign and corporate,and soon stocks,apparently nobody has ever faced a question of how effective that is and to the smart people in the room shown below,only wonderful things come out of central banks directly becoming the only marginal buyer in the world's most important capital markets.




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