德意志银行死亡观察发生了一个有趣的转折

2019年11月7日14:32:07德意志银行死亡观察发生了一个有趣的转折已关闭评论 8656967字阅读23分13秒

德意志银行死亡观察发生了一个有趣的转折

The biggest bank in Europe is in the process of imploding,and there are persistent rumors that the final collapse could happen sooner rather than later.Those that follow my work on a regular basis already know that this is a story that I have been following for years.Deutsche Bank is rapidly bleeding cash,they have been laying off thousands of workers,and the vultures have been circling as company executives desperately try to implement a turnaround plan.Unfortunately for Deutsche Bank,it may already be too late.And if Deutsche Bank goes down,it will be even more catastrophic for the global financial system than the collapse of Lehman Brothers was in 2008.Germany is the glue that is holding the EU together,and so if the bank that is right at the heart of Germany's financial system collapses,the dominoes will likely start falling very rapidly.

这家欧洲最大的银行正处于内部崩溃的过程中,一直有传言称,最终的崩溃可能发生得更快,而不是更晚。那些定期关注我工作的人已经知道这是一个我已经关注多年的故事。德意志银行正在大量流失现金,他们已经裁掉了数千名员工,而且在公司高管们不顾一切地试图实施一项扭亏为盈的计划时,贪婪的人们一直在盘旋。不幸的是,对德意志银行来说,这可能已经太晚了。如果德意志银行倒闭,对全球金融体系的影响将比2008年雷曼兄弟的破产更为严重。德国是将欧盟团结在一起的粘合剂,因此,如果处于德国金融体系核心的银行倒闭,多米诺骨牌很可能会迅速开始倒下。

There has been a tremendous amount of speculation about Deutsche Bank over the past several days,and so let's start with what we know.

过去几天,人们对德意志银行有着大量的猜测,所以让我们从我们所知道的开始。

We know that Deutsche Bank has been losing money at a pace that is absolutely staggering…

我们知道德意志银行一直在以绝对惊人的速度亏损..

Deutsche Bank reported a net loss that missed market expectations on Wednesday as a major restructuring plan continues to weigh on the German lender.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)周三公布净亏损,低于市场预期,因重大重组计划继续拖累该行。

It reported a net loss of 832 million euros($924 million)for the third quarter of 2019.Analysts were expecting a loss of 778 million euros,according to data from Refinitiv.It had reported a net profit of 229 million euros in the third quarter of 2018,but a loss of 3.15 billion euros in the second quarter of this year.

该公司公布2019年第三季度净亏损8.32亿欧元(9.24亿美元)。根据 Refinitiv 的数据,分析师预计损失7.78亿欧元。该公司公布2018年第三季度净利润为2.29亿欧元,但今年第二季度亏损31.5亿欧元。

If you add the losses for the second and third quarter of 2019 together,you get a grand total of nearly 4 billion euros.

如果把2019年第二季度和第三季度的损失加起来,总共将近40亿欧元。

How in the world is it possible to lose that much money in just 6 months?

怎么可能在6个月内损失这么多钱?

If all they had their employees doing was flushing dollar bills down the toilet for 6 months,it still shouldn't be possible to lose that kind of money.

如果他们让员工做的只是把美元钞票扔进马桶里6个月,那么这笔钱还是不可能丢掉的。

When investors learned of Deutsche Bank's third quarter results last week,shares of the bank went down about 8 percent in a single day.

当投资者上周得知德意志银行第三季度业绩时,该行股价一天内下跌了8%

Overall,the stock price has lost over a quarter of its value over the past year.

总的来说,在过去的一年里,股票价格已经损失了四分之一的价值。

Unless you enjoy financial pain,I have no idea why anyone would want to be holding Deutsche Bank stock at this point.As I have previously warned,it is eventually going to zero,and the only question remaining is how quickly it will get there.

除非你喜欢财务上的痛苦,否则我不知道为什么会有人想在这个时候持有德意志银行的股票。正如我之前警告过的,它最终会变成零,剩下的唯一问题是它会以多快的速度到达那里。

We also know that Deutsche Bank has been laying off thousands of workers all over the world…

我们还知道,德意志银行在全世界裁员数千人.....

On July 8,2019,thousands of Deutsche Bank employees across the globe arrived at their offices,unaware that they would be leaving again,jobless,just a few hours later.In Tokyo,entire teams of equity traders were dismissed on the spot,while some London staff were reportedly told they had until 11am to leave the bank's Great Winchester Street offices before their access cards stopped working.

201978日,全球数以千计的德意志银行员工来到他们的办公室,没有意识到仅仅几个小时后,他们将再次失业。在东京,整队股票交易员当场被解雇,而据报道,一些伦敦员工被告知,他们必须在上午11点之前离开该行的大温彻斯特街(Great Winchester Street)办公室,否则他们的通行卡就会失效。

The job cuts,which totalled 18,000,or around 20 percent of Deutsche Bank's workforce,were the flagship element of a restructuring plan designed to save the ailing German lender.

裁员总计18,000人,约占德意志银行员工总数的20%,是旨在拯救这家境况不佳的德国银行的重组计划的旗舰部分。

The day before those layoffs happened,most of those employees would have probably told you that Deutsche Bank is in good shape and has a very bright future ahead.

在裁员发生的前一天,大多数员工可能会告诉你,德意志银行状况良好,前途一片光明。

Just like we witnessed with Lehman Brothers,there is always an effort to maintain the charade until the very last minute.

就像我们在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)身上看到的那样,直到最后一刻,人们总是在努力维持这种伪装。

德意志银行死亡观察发生了一个有趣的转折

Source:Bloomberg

来源:彭博社

But the truth is that anyone with half a brain can see that Deutsche Bank is dying.There have been so many bad decisions,so many aggressive bets have gone bad,and there has been one scandal after another…

但事实是,任何有点脑子的人都能看出,德意志银行正在走向死亡。有那么多糟糕的决定,那么多激进的押注都失败了,丑闻接踵而至.....

In April 2015,the bank paid a combined$2.5bn in fines to US and UK regulators for its role in the LIBOR-fixing scandal.Just six months later,it was forced to pay an additional$258m to regulators in New York after it was caught trading with Myanmar,Libya,Sudan,Iran and Syria,all of which were subject to US sanctions at the time.These two fines,combined with challenging market conditions,led the bank to post a€6.7bn($7.39bn)net loss for 2015.Two years later,it paid a further$425m to the New York regulator to settle claims that it had laundered$10bn in Russian funds.

20154月,该银行向美国和英国监管机构支付了总计25亿美元的罚款,原因是它在操纵利率丑闻中扮演了角色。仅仅6个月后,在被发现与缅甸、利比亚、苏丹、伊朗和叙利亚进行交易后,该公司被迫向纽约的监管机构追加支付2.58亿美元,这些国家当时都受到了美国的制裁。这两笔罚款,加上充满挑战的市场环境,导致该行2015年出现67亿欧元(73.9亿美元)的净亏损。两年后,该公司又向纽约监管机构支付了4.25亿美元,以了结其在俄罗斯洗钱100亿美元的指控。

At this point,it is just a zombie bank that is stumbling along until someone finally puts it out of its misery.

在这一点上,它只是一个僵尸银行,蹒跚前行,直到有人最终把它从痛苦中解救出来。

Money is so tight at Deutsche Bank that they have even cancelled the Christmas reception for retired employees…

德意志银行的资金非常紧张,他们甚至取消了为退休员工举行的圣诞招待会.....

Times change.Once upon a time(2001,in fact),Deutsche Bank was able to book stars like Robbie Williams for its staff Christmas party,with a Spice Girl turning up too just because it was such a great party.Now,according to the FT,Christian Sewing has even cancelled the daytime coffee-and-cake Christmas reception for retired employees.

时代变了。曾几何时(实际上是2001),德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)能够为其员工的圣诞派对预定罗比威廉姆斯(Robbie Williams)等明星,辣妹组合(Spice Girl)也出现在派对上,只是因为派对太棒了。如今,据英国《金融时报》报道,克里斯蒂安缝纫公司甚至取消了白天为退休员工举办的咖啡蛋糕圣诞招待会。

Of course saving a few bucks on coffee and cake is not going to make a difference for a bank with tens of trillions of dollars of exposure to derivatives.

当然,对于一家拥有数十万亿美元衍生品敞口的银行而言,在咖啡和蛋糕上省下几美元不会有什么不同。

Deutsche Bank is the largest domino in Europe's very shaky financial system.When it fully collapses,it will set off a chain reaction that nobody is going to be able to stop.David Wilkerson once warned that the financial collapse of Europe would begin in Germany,and Jim Rogers has warned that the implosion of Deutsche Bank would cause the entire EU to"disintegrate"…

德意志银行是欧洲金融体系中最大的多米诺骨牌。当它完全崩溃时,它将引发一个没有人能够阻止的连锁反应。大卫威尔克森(David Wilkerson)曾警告称,欧洲的金融崩溃将始于德国。吉姆罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)警告称,德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的内爆将导致整个欧盟"瓦解".....

Then the EU would disintegrate,because Germany would no longer be able to support it,would not want to support it.A lot of other people would start bailing out;many banks in Europe have problems.And if Deutsche Bank has to fail–that is the end of it.In 1931,when one of the largest banks in Europe failed,it led to the Great Depression and eventually the WWII.Be worried!

那么欧盟将会解体,因为德国将不再能够支持它,也不会想要支持它。很多其他人会开始救助;欧洲的很多银行都有问题。如果德意志银行必须倒闭,那么这一切就结束了。1931年,欧洲最大的银行之一倒闭,导致了大萧条,最终是二战。担心吧!

Sadly,most Americans can't even spell"Deutsche Bank",and they certainly don't know that it is the most important bank in all of Europe.

可悲的是,大多数美国人甚至不会拼写"德意志银行",他们当然也不知道它是整个欧洲最重要的银行。

But those that understand the times we are living in are watching Deutsche Bank very carefully,because if it implodes global financial chaos will certainly follow.

但那些理解我们所处时代的人正在非常仔细地观察德意志银行,因为如果它发生内爆,全球金融混乱肯定会随之而来。

来源:https://eraoflight.com/2019/11/06/the-deutsche-bank-death-watch-has-taken-a-very-interesting-turn/


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  • 本文由 发表于 2019年11月7日14:32:07
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