Source: Prepare For Change
By Federico Pieraccini,
作者:费德里科·皮耶拉奇尼
"Moscow and Damascus have always maintained they are against any form of partition or illegal foreign presence in Syria."
"莫斯科和大马士革一直坚称，它们反对任何形式的分裂或外国在叙利亚的非法存在。"
Moscow has managed to maintain contacts with all parties in the conflict,even in spite of its stance against partition and illegal foreign presence.Trilateral talks between Iran,Turkey and Russia occurred in Astana at Moscow's urging.Putin managed to bring together in Sochi the Syrian government and opposition groups to discuss the future of Syria.In Geneva,Moscow mediated between Damascus and the international community,shielding Syria from the diplomatic skulduggery of the US and other enemies of Syria.
莫斯科设法与冲突各方保持联系，尽管其立场反对分裂和非法外国存在。在莫斯科的敦促下，伊朗、土耳其和俄罗斯在阿斯塔纳举行了三方会谈。普京在索契成功地召集了叙利亚政府和反对派团体讨论叙利亚的未来。在日内瓦，莫斯科在大马士革和国际社会之间斡旋，保护叙利亚免受美国和其他叙利亚敌人的外交欺诈。
Turkey,solely as a result of its defeat in Syria,now finds itself in active dialogue with Moscow and Tehran.As Ankara experiences worsening relations with Washington and other European capitals,Moscow saw a great opportunity to bring Turkey closer to Damascus.
仅仅因为在叙利亚战败，土耳其现在发现自己正与莫斯科和德黑兰积极对话。随着安卡拉与华盛顿和其他欧洲国家政府关系的恶化，莫斯科看到了一个使土耳其与大马士革更加接近的大好机会。
Russia's operation was complicated and required a lot of patience;but thanks to negotiations supervised by Russia,together with the bravery and courage of Syrian soldiers,almost all of the terrorist pockets scattered around Syria have been progressively overcome.
俄罗斯的行动是复杂的，需要很大的耐心;但是由于俄罗斯监督下的谈判，加上叙利亚士兵的勇气和勇气，几乎所有分散在叙利亚各地的恐怖分子的口袋都被逐步消灭了。
Other than the Idlib province,the main problem for Damascus lay with the US occupation in the northeast of the country,under the pretext of protecting the Kurds(SDF)from the"Assad regime",as well as to"fight Daesh".
除了伊德利卜以外，大马士革的主要问题在于美国以保护库尔德人免受"阿萨德政权"伤害以及"与达伊沙作战"为借口占领该国东北部。
Erdogan currently finds himself boxed in,squeezed in by a collapsing economy,threatened by his allies(the purchase of the Russian S-400 system irritated many in Washington and in NATO):he desperately needs to present some kind of victory to his base.
目前，埃尔多安发现自己陷入了困境，经济崩溃，盟友威胁着他(购买俄罗斯 S-400系统激怒了华盛顿和北约的许多人):他迫切需要向自己的基地展示某种胜利。
This may be the primary reason behind Erdogan's decision to move into Syria under the pretense that the YPG is a terrorist organization linked with the PKK—proceeding to create a buffer zone on the border between Syria and Turkey and declaring"mission accomplished"to boost popularity ratings.
这可能是埃尔多安伪称 YPG 是与库尔德工人党有关联的恐怖组织，决定进入叙利亚的主要原因。他正在叙利亚和土耳其边境建立缓冲区，并宣布"任务完成"，以提高民众支持率。
With Trump,he is desperate to shift attention away from the impeachment proceedings(a hoax),and similarly needs to present some kind of victory to his base.Why,what better way to do this than with a mini withdrawal of US troops from Syria,leaving the Kurds to their destiny(Trump's care factor regarding SDF is minimal,as they are more connected to his political opponents in the Democratic Party),while claiming victory over Daesh for the umpteenth time in recent months?
对于特朗普，他不顾一切地想把人们的注意力从弹劾程序(一场骗局)上转移开，同样地，他也需要向自己的支持者展示某种胜利。为什么，还有什么比美军从叙利亚小规模撤军，让库尔德人自生自灭(特朗普对自卫队的关心微乎其微，因为他们与自己在民主党内的政治对手关系更密切)，并在最近几个月无数次宣称战胜达伊沙更好的方式呢？
Trump,with a handful of tweets directed against the Pentagon's"crazy spending"and America's past wars,finds himself and his base giving each other high fives on their commitment to the doctrine of"America First".
特朗普发了几条推文，反对五角大楼的"疯狂开支"和美国过去的战争。他发现自己和自己的支持者互相击掌庆祝"美国优先"的信条。
Erdogan and Trump have also solved the embarrassing internal conflict within NATO between Turkey and the US,probably reestablishing personal relationships(the tough talk from the White House notwithstanding).
埃尔多安和特朗普还解决了北约内部土耳其和美国之间令人尴尬的内部冲突，可能重建了个人关系(尽管白宫发表了强硬言论)。
The agreement between the Kurds(SDF)and Damascus is the only natural conclusion to events that are heavily orchestrated by Moscow.The deployment of Syrian and Russian troops on the border with Turkey is the prelude to the reconquest of the entirety of Syrian territory—the outcome the Kremlin was wishing for at the beginning of this diplomatic masterpiece.
库尔德人(SDF)和大马士革之间的协议是莫斯科精心策划的事件的唯一自然结果。在与土耳其接壤的边境部署叙利亚和俄罗斯军队是重新征服整个叙利亚领土的前奏ーー这是克里姆林宫在这一外交杰作开始时所希望的结果。
Washington and Ankara have never had any opportunities to prevent Damascus from reunifying the country.It was assumed by Moscow that Washington and Ankara would sooner or later seek the correct exit strategy,even as they proclaimed victory to their respective bases in the face of defeat in Syria.This is exactly what Putin and Lavrov came up with over the last few weeks,offering Trump and Erdogan the solution to their Syrian problems.
华盛顿和安卡拉从未有任何机会阻止大马士革重新统一这个国家。莫斯科认为，华盛顿和安卡拉迟早会寻求正确的退出战略，尽管面对在叙利亚的失败，他们宣布各自的基地取得了胜利。这正是普京和拉夫罗夫在过去几周提出的方案，为特朗普和埃尔多安提供了解决叙利亚问题的办法。
Trump will state that he has little interest in countries 7,000 miles from the homeland;and Erdogan(with some reluctance)will affirm that the border between Turkey and Syria,when held by the Syrian Arab Army,guarantees security against the Kurds.
特朗普将表示，他对距离祖国7000英里的国家没有什么兴趣;埃尔多安(有些不情愿地)将申明，土耳其和叙利亚之间的边界如果被阿拉伯叙利亚军队控制，将保障库尔德人的安全。
Putin has no doubt advised Assad and the Kurds to begin a dialogue in the common interests of Syria.He would have no doubt also convinced Erdogan and Trump of the need to accept these plans.
毫无疑问，普京建议阿萨德和库尔德人为了叙利亚的共同利益开始对话。毫无疑问，他还会说服埃尔多安和特朗普接受这些计划。
An agreement that rewards Damascus and Moscow saves the Kurds while leaving Erdogan and Trump with a semblance of dignity in a situation that is difficult to explain to a domestic or international audience.
一项有利于大马士革和莫斯科的协议拯救了库尔德人，同时让埃尔多安和特朗普在一个难以向国内或国际听众解释的局势中保持了表面上的尊严。
Moscow has started joint patrols with the Syrian Arab Army on the borders with Turkey for the purposes of preventing any military clashes between Ankara and Damascus.If Ankara halts its military operation in the coming days,Damascus will regain control of the oil fields.
莫斯科已开始与阿拉伯叙利亚军队在与土耳其的边界进行联合巡逻，以防止安卡拉与大马士革之间发生任何军事冲突。如果安卡拉在未来几天停止军事行动，大马士革将重新获得对油田的控制。
The world will then have witnessed one of the greatest diplomatic masterpieces ever conceived,responsible for bringing closer the end of the seven-year-long Syrian conflict.
届时，世界将目睹有史以来最伟大的外交杰作之一，负责使长达七年的叙利亚冲突更接近结束。
Source:https://www.strategic-culture.org
