如何应对下一次经济衰退,央行官员们正在悄无声息地惊慌失措

2020年1月13日15:25:02如何应对下一次经济衰退,央行官员们正在悄无声息地惊慌失措已关闭评论 8452331字阅读7分46秒
摘要

即将离任的英国央行行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)本周向英国《金融时报》表示,各国央行的燃料即将告罄。

The world's top central bank officials are rightly concerned that politicians in rich economies missed one key lesson of the last recession:Interest rate cuts can help to moderate a downturn,but aggressive fiscal policy is key to a healthy recovery.

世界最高的中央银行官员有理由担心富裕经济体的政治家们没有从上次经济衰退中学到一个关键的教训:降息可以帮助缓和经济下滑,但是积极的财政政策是健康复苏的关键。

如何应对下一次经济衰退,央行官员们正在悄无声息地惊慌失措

It was a pro-austerity stance both in the United States,and even more saliently in the euro zone,that arguably prolonged the period of high unemployment and low wage growth that plagued most of the decade-long recovery from the 2007-2009 U.S.Great Recession.

无论是在美国,还是在欧元区,这种支持紧缩的立场都可以说是延长了高失业率和低工资增长时期,而这两个时期正是2007-2009年美国经济大衰退之后十年复苏的主要障碍。

如何应对下一次经济衰退,央行官员们正在悄无声息地惊慌失措

Outgoing Bank of England Governor Mark Carney told the Financial Times this week that central banks are running low on fuel.

即将离任的英国央行行长马克卡尼(Mark Carney)本周向英国《金融时报》表示,各国央行的燃料即将告罄。

"If there were to be a deeper downturn,[that requires]more stimulus than a conventional recession,then it's not clear that monetary policy would have sufficient space,"he said.

他表示:"如果出现更严重的衰退,(这需要)比传统衰退更多的刺激措施,那么不清楚货币政策是否有足够的空间。"

Today In:Money

今日之内:货币

"It's generally true that there's much less ammunition for all the major central banks than they previously had and I'm of the opinion that this situation will persist for some time."

"通常情况下,所有主要央行获得的弹药都比以前少得多,这是事实,我认为,这种情况将持续一段时间。"

That echoed the sentiment of Christine Lagarde,who recently took over the European Central Bank.She's telling budget-shy European politicians(especially in Germany)to get to work.

这与最近接管欧洲央行的克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的观点相呼应。她正在告诉那些预算拮据的欧洲政治家们(尤其是德国的政治家们)开始工作。

Now,a new paper from Fed board economist Michael Kiley points to similar alarm among U.S.central bankers about their ability to fight future slumps.

现在,美联储理事会经济学家迈克尔·基利的一篇新论文指出,美国央行官员对于他们抗击未来衰退的能力也有类似的警告。

如何应对下一次经济衰退,央行官员们正在悄无声息地惊慌失措

U.S.interest rates likely to go negative in a recession scenario,FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

美国联邦储备委员会表示,在经济衰退的情况下,美国利率可能为负

Drawing up two basic assumptions of what a downturn might look like,Kiley finds that"a recession may result in near-zero interest rates at long maturities,bringing U.S.experience closer to that seen in Europe and Japan."

对于经济衰退可能会是什么样子,基利总结了两个基本假设,他发现"经济衰退可能导致长期利率接近于零,使美国的经验更接近欧洲和日本的经验。"

This,says Kiley,"could imply limits on the ability of monetary policy to support a recovery."

凯利表示,这"可能意味着货币政策支持经济复苏的能力受到限制。"

来源:

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/central-bankers-are-quietly-freaking-out-about-how-fight-next-recession?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

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