德国中央银行:黄金是国际货币体系稳定的基石
European central banks are slowly preparing for plan B:gold.
欧洲各国央行正在缓慢地为 B 计划做准备:黄金。
欧洲各国央行正在缓慢地为B计划做准备:黄金。
Deutsche Bundesbank[CC BY-NC-ND 2.0(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/)]
德意志联邦银行2.0(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/2.0/)]
Written by Jan Nieuwenhuijs,formerly known as Koos Jansen.
作者:Jan Nieuwenhuijs，原名 Koos Jansen。
It was long believed in the gold space that Western central banks are against gold,but things have changed,for quite some years now.Instead of discouraging people from buying gold,or convincing them that gold is an irrelevant asset,many of these central banks are increasingly honest about the true properties of this monetary metal.Stating that gold is the ultimate store of value,that it preserves its purchasing power through time and is a global means of payment.Such statements,combined with actions that will be discussed below,reveal that more and more central banks are preparing for plan B.
长期以来，人们一直认为西方央行反对黄金，但事情已经发生了变化，时隔多年了。这些央行没有阻止人们购买黄金，或者说服他们相信黄金是一种无关紧要的资产，而是越来越诚实地面对这种货币金属的真实属性。指出黄金是最终的价值储存手段，它可以在一段时间内保持其购买力，是一种全球性的支付手段。这些声明，加上下文将要讨论的行动，表明越来越多的央行正在为 B 计划做准备。
The Bundesbank(the German central bank)published a book last year named Germany's Gold.In the introduction,written by the President of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann,the view of this bank leaves no room for interpretation.Weidmann writes(emphasis mine):
德国央行(Bundesbank)去年出版了一本名为《德国黄金》(Germany's Gold)的书。在德国央行行长延斯•魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)撰写的序言中，德国央行的观点没有留下解释的余地。魏德曼写道(强调我的):
Ask anyone in Germany what they associate with gold and,more often than not,they will say that it is synonymous with enduring value and economic prosperity.
问问德国人，他们把黄金与什么联系在一起，他们往往会说，黄金是持久价值和经济繁荣的同义词。
Ask us at the Bundesbank what our gold holdings mean for us and we will tell you that,first and foremost,they make up a very large share of Germany's reserve assets...[and they]are a major anchor underpinning confidence in the intrinsic value of the Bundesbank's balance sheet.
问问德国央行我们的黄金储备对我们意味着什么，我们会告诉你，首先，它们占德国储备资产的很大一部分......它们是支撑人们对德国央行资产负债表内在价值信心的主要支柱。
The Bundesbank produced this publication to give a detailed account,the first of its kind,of how gold has grown in importance over the course of history,first as medium of payment,later as the bedrock of stability for the international monetary system.
德国央行出版这份报告是为了详细说明黄金在历史进程中的重要性是如何增长的，首先作为支付媒介，后来作为国际货币体系稳定的基石。
For Keynesians these comments might read like the Bundesbank(BuBa)is a"goldbug."Its remarks,however,are simply common sense.Gold has enduring value.The world over it is associated with economic prosperity.Every reserve currency in the world today is underpinned by vast gold reserves.Otherwise,monetary authorities wouldn't trust holding the respective currencies,next to holding their own gold reserves.Gold truly is the bedrock of stability for the international monetary system.
对凯恩斯主义者来说，这些评论可能读起来就像德国央行是个"金虫"然而，它的评论仅仅是常识。黄金具有持久的价值。在全世界，它与经济繁荣联系在一起。当今世界的每一种储备货币都有庞大的黄金储备作为支撑。否则，货币当局将不会相信持有各自的货币，仅次于持有自己的黄金储备。黄金确实是国际货币体系稳定的基石。
Central Banks and Exter's Pyramid
中央银行与埃克斯特金字塔
What springs to mind when reading Weidmann's statement is Exter's Inverse Pyramid.John Exter was an American economist that in the 1960s conceived an upended pyramid of financial assets.Underneath the pyramid is gold that forms the base of most reliable value;all asset classes within the pyramid on progressively higher levels involve more risk.Exter would sometimes refer to his model as the debt pyramid;hence,he positioned gold outside of it as it's the only asset that has no liability against it.
当读到魏德曼的陈述时，我首先想到的是埃克斯特的倒金字塔。约翰·埃克斯特是一位美国经济学家，他在20世纪60年代构想了一个颠倒的金融资产金字塔。金字塔下面是黄金，它构成了最可靠价值的基础;金字塔内所有逐渐升高的资产类别都涉及更多的风险。埃克斯特有时会把他的模型称为债务金字塔;因此，他把黄金置于金字塔之外，因为它是唯一没有负债的资产。
Tellingly,when Exter addressed the Economic Society of South Africa in Johannesburg on November 16,1966,he said(source):
1966年11月16日，埃克斯特在约翰内斯堡向南非经济学会(Economic Society of South Africa)发表演讲时说:
Gold is the hard core of our international monetary system.
黄金是我们国际货币体系的核心。
"Bedrock"(Weidmann)and"hard core"(Exter)are similar,and both point to gold's strength and what it can carry.An essential element of capitalism is investing—directly,indirectly,through bonds or equity—that involves risk.The higher the risk,the higher the return.The lower the risk,the lower the return.What falls outside of the investment realm has zero risk and no return,but provides the base that carries the debt system.This safe haven is gold,the only asset refuge that has no counterparty risk.
"基岩"(Weidmann)和"硬核"(Exter)是相似的，都指向黄金的力量和它可以携带的东西。资本主义的一个基本要素是直接、间接地通过债券或股票进行涉及风险的投资。风险越高，回报越高。风险越低，回报越低。投资领域之外的东西风险为零，没有回报，但却为债务体系提供了基础。这个避风港就是黄金，唯一没有交易对手风险的资产避风港。
In the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual(BPM6)drafted by the International Monetary Fund(IMF),we read:
在国际货币基金组织(基金组织)起草的《国际收支和国际投资头寸手册》(BPM6)中，我们读到:
Financial assets are economic assets that are financial instruments.Financial assets include financial claims and monetary gold held in the form of gold bullion…A financial claim is a financial instrument that has a counterpart liability.Gold bullion is not a claim and does not have a corresponding liability.It is treated as a financial asset,however,because of its special role as a means of financial exchange in international payments by monetary authorities and as a reserve asset held by monetary authorities.
金融资产是指作为金融工具的经济资产。金融资产包括金融债权和以金块形式持有的货币黄金......金融债权是一种具有对应负债的金融工具。金块不是索赔，也没有相应的责任。然而，由于其作为货币当局在国际支付中的金融交换手段和作为货币当局持有的储备资产的特殊作用，它被视为一种金融资产。
The IMF considers all financial assets to have counterparty risk,except gold.
国际货币基金组织认为除了黄金以外，所有的金融资产都有交易对手风险。
On page 112 of BPM6 the IMF lists all international reserve assets by descending order.Crowning the lineup is physical gold,followed by cash,debt securities,equity,and finally derivatives.Nearly an exact copy of Exter's Pyramid.
国际货币基金组织在《国际收支手册》第6版第112页按降序列出了所有国际储备资产。其中最重要的是实物黄金，其次是现金、债务证券、股票，最后是衍生品。几乎是一模一样的埃克斯特金字塔。
Another appearance of the pyramid can be found on the website of the Dutch central bank,De Nederlandsche Bank(DNB).Since April 2019 DNB's gold information page reads:
金字塔的另一个外观可以在荷兰中央银行的网站上找到，荷兰荷兰中央银行银行(DNB)。自2019年4月以来，荷兰国家银行的黄金信息页面上写道:
A bar of gold always retains its value,crisis or no crisis.This creates a sense of security.
不管有没有危机，金条总是保持它的价值。这就创造了一种安全感。
Shares,bonds and other securities are not without risk,and prices can go down.But a bar of gold retains its value,even in times of crisis.That is why central banks,including DNB,have traditionally held considerable amounts of gold.Gold is the perfect piggy bank—it's the anchor of trust for the financial system.If the system collapses,the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again.Gold bolsters confidence in the stability of the central bank's balance sheet and creates a sense of security.
股票、债券和其他证券并非没有风险，价格可能会下跌。但是，即使在危机时期，金条仍然保持着它的价值。这就是为什么包括中国国家银行在内的中央银行传统上持有大量黄金的原因。黄金是完美的储蓄罐ーー它是金融体系的信托锚。如果金融体系崩溃，黄金储备可以作为基础重新建立起来。黄金增强了人们对央行资产负债表稳定性的信心，并创造了一种安全感。
Exter's pyramid all over.Kindly note the similarity between DNB's and BuBa's comments on gold providing essential confidence in their balance sheets.It goes to show these two central banks have a long history of cooperating.
到处都是埃克斯特的金字塔。请注意，荷兰中央银行和巴西银行对黄金的评论相似，为它们的资产负债表提供了至关重要的信心。这表明，这两家央行有着长期合作的历史。
I tweeted about DNB's candid approach last April(a few months later,it went viral).
去年四月，我在推特上谈到了 DNB 的坦率做法(几个月后，这条推文就像病毒一样传播开来)。
Let's continue with another quote,this time from the Bank of Finland(BOF):
让我们继续引用另一句话，这次是来自芬兰银行(BOF):
Gold–The basis of a monetary system
黄金-货币体系的基础
Gold is called the eternal payment instrument and has been used as a medium of exchange for thousands of years.Gold is a genuinely global means of payment that has maintained its value throughout history.
黄金被称为永恒的支付工具，几千年来一直被用作交换媒介。黄金是一种真正的全球性支付手段，在历史上一直保持着它的价值。
One more,from the Banque de France(BDF):
还有一个，来自英国法兰西银行基金会:
Key facts
关键事实
Gold is a highly sought-after precious metal,considered to be the ultimate store of value.
黄金是一种备受追捧的贵金属，被认为是价值的终极储藏手段。
All central banks quoted agree gold preserves its purchasing power through time.
所有央行都同意，黄金在一段时间内可以保持其购买力。
Preparing for Plan B
准备B计划
Next to strong statements by central banks,they're acting accordingly.Shortly after the Great Financial Crisis(GFC),central banks as a sector became net buyers;and Germany,the Netherlands,Austria,Hungary and Turkey,among others,repatriated gold.Mainly from the Bank of England in London and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
除了各国央行发布强有力的声明之外，他们也采取了相应的行动。在大金融危机(GFC)之后不久，作为一个部门的中央银行成为了净买家，而德国、荷兰、奥地利、匈牙利和土耳其等国则汇回了黄金。主要来自伦敦的英格兰银行和纽约的联邦储备银行。
According to BuBa,their repatriation scheme had three objectives:cost efficiency,security,and liquidity.Cost efficiency is about the storage costs in every location.Security involves the safety of the vaults and where those vaults are.The current trend is to have a significant fraction of gold on home soil due to the geopolitical environment.Liquidity is about owning bars that adhere to prevailing industry standards and are located in liquid marketplaces such as London,i.e.,to make payments in times of changes in the financial system.This latter aspect deserves special attention.
据布巴称，他们的遣返计划有三个目标:成本效率、安全性和流动性。成本效率是指每个地点的存储成本。安全涉及到保险库的安全以及保险库所在的地方。由于地缘政治环境的原因，目前的趋势是在本土拥有相当一部分黄金。流动性指的是拥有那些符合行业标准、位于伦敦等流动性市场的金融机构，即在金融体系发生变化时进行支付的金融机构。后一个方面值得特别注意。
Storage locations Germany's official gold reserves.德国官方黄金储备的储存地点
As we've seen,Western monetary authorities mention gold to be,"the anchor of trust for the financial system,""the bedrock of stability for the international monetary system,"and,"a genuinely global means of payment."They're also saying that"if the system collapses,the gold stock can serve as a basis to build it up again."One wonders if these entities are preparing for a new type of international gold standard.They see it as one possible outcome,as in recent years,several central banks have upgraded their gold reserves to current gold industry standards,also referred to as London Good Delivery.
正如我们所见，西方货币当局提到黄金是"金融体系的信任锚"、"国际货币体系稳定的基石"，以及"一种真正的全球支付手段"他们还说，"如果金融体系崩溃，黄金储备可以作为基础，再次建立起来。"人们不禁要问，这些实体是否正在为一种新型的国际金本位制做准备。他们认为这是一个可能的结果，因为在最近几年，一些中央银行已经将他们的黄金储备升级到当前的黄金行业标准，也被称为伦敦货物交付。
Throughout history,bars of different purities were traded in wholesale markets.By 1954 every new bar accepted in the London Bullion Market—the center of gold trade since the 18th century—was required to be at least 995 parts per thousand fine and weighing in between 350 and 430 fine troy ounces.Although not every old bar was promptly upgraded.Some remained as they were,in vaults in London and other places.These bars now trade a at discount,usually equal to the cost of upgrading and,if necessary,transporting them to London.
纵观历史，不同纯度的金条在批发市场上交易。到1954年，伦敦金银市场——自18世纪以来的黄金贸易中心——接受的每个新金条的罚款至少要达到千分之995，罚款金额在350至430金衡盎司之间。虽然不是所有的老酒吧都立即升级了。有些还保存在伦敦和其他地方的地下室里。这些酒吧现在以折扣价交易，通常相当于升级的成本，如果必要的话，还可以将它们运往伦敦。
After the GFC many central banks were holding bars that were cast before 1954,which are currently not liquid in wholesale markets.In response,the French,Swedish and German central bank,that I know of,have upgraded their gold reserves to solve this liquidity issue.
全球金融危机之后，许多中央银行都持有1954年之前铸造的金条，这些金条目前在批发市场上没有流动性。作为回应，据我所知，法国、瑞典和德国央行已经上调了它们的黄金储备，以解决这一流动性问题。
From the Banque de France:
来自法兰西银行:
Since 2009,the Banque de France has been engaged in an ambitious programme to upgrade the quality of its gold reserves.The target is to ensure that all its bars comply with LBMA[London Bullion Market Association]standards so that they can be traded on an international market.
自2009年以来，法兰西银行储备银行一直致力于一项雄心勃勃的计划，以提高其黄金储备的质量。目标是确保其所有金条都符合伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)的标准，以便它们能够在国际市场上交易。
From the Swedish Riksbank:
来自瑞典央行:
To ensure that the Riksbank has the most liquid gold reserve possible,in 2017 the Riksbank upgraded the part of its gold reserve that did not meet the LGD[London Good Delivery]standard by replacing these bars with new gold bars that do meet the standard.
为了确保瑞典央行拥有尽可能多的流动性黄金储备，2017年瑞典央行升级了其黄金储备中不符合 LGD 标准的部分，用符合标准的新金条取代了这些金条。
I don't have a quote from BuBa itself on their upgrade operation.However,connecting a few dots uncovers when and how they did it.BuBa released a bar list in 2015 disclosing all their gold to be 995 fine or higher.In the book Germany's Gold,a bar is displayed on page 110 with the subscription:
我没有引用 BuBa 自己的升级操作。然而，连接一些点揭示了他们何时以及如何做到这一点。2015年，巴西银行公布了一份律师协会的名单，上面披露他们所有的黄金都将被处以995美元以上的罚款。在《德国的黄金》(Germany's Gold)一书中，第110页显示了一个订阅栏:
In the course of the relocation[repatriating]of gold holdings in 2013 and 2014,this bar…was melted down from old bars stored at the Fed and newly manufactured.The remelting served to obtain a detailed picture of the fineness of bars which were produced by various refiners in different years.They are among the Bundesbank's newest gold bars.
在2013年和2014年黄金储备的重新安置(遣返)过程中，这个金条......是从美联储储存的旧金条中熔化出来的，而且是新制造的。通过重熔可以得到不同年份不同炼厂生产的棒材细度的详细图像。它们是德国央行最新推出的金条之一。
While BuBa states this bar was melted for assaying purposes,in reality,it was part of making their entire stack at least 995 fine.One,because it doesn't require melting a whole bar for assay testing.Two,on November 11,2017,the Financial Timespublished an article on how BuBa repatriated its gold.The article states:
虽然 BuBa 声称这个酒吧是为了测试目的融化，但实际上，这是他们整个堆栈至少995罚款的一部分。第一，因为它不需要熔化整个金属条进行化验测试。其次，2017年11月11日，英国《金融时报》发表了一篇关于布巴如何汇回黄金的文章。文章写道:
more than 4,400 bars transferred from New York were taken to Switzerland,where two smelters remoulded the bullion into bars that meet London Good Delivery standards for ease of handling.
从纽约转运到瑞士的金条超过4400条，在那里，两家冶炼厂将金条改造成了符合伦敦 Good Delivery 标准的金条，以方便操作。
Just like that one bar wasn't melted to'obtain a detailed picture of the fineness,'an additional 4,399 bars weren't melted'for ease of handling.'They were all refined for one reason:to meet London Good Delivery criteria and make Germany's gold reserves wholly liquid.
就像有一块金条不是为了"获得细致的图片"而融化的，另外4399块金条也不是为了"易于操作"而融化的
它们都是为了一个原因而精炼的:满足伦敦的货物交付标准，使德国的黄金储备完全具有流动性。
Conclusion
总结
According to John Exter,when the debt pyramid has grown in excess and becomes unstable,bubbles burst.Investors,seeking safety,will run down the ladder until they find solid ground(the bedrock).This foundation is gold,which can't default or be arbitrarily devalued.
约翰•埃克斯特(John Exter)认为，当债务金字塔过度膨胀，变得不稳定时，泡沫就会破裂。寻求安全的投资者会一直往下跑，直到找到坚实的基础(基岩)。这个基础是黄金，它不能违约或任意贬值。
The GFC was caused by too much debt(a credit binge).When Lehman fell,and the house of cards came crumbling down,the quickest solution authorities could think of,ironically,was more debt.We went from"extend and pretend"to"delay and pray."Central bank intervention can be effective,for a while,until the underlying problem resurfaces with a vengeance.Presently the world is more in debt than before the GFC.The Institute of International Finance estimates global debt to GDP is now 320%.
Gfc 是由过多的债务(信贷狂潮)引起的。具有讽刺意味的是，当雷曼兄弟(Lehman brothers)破产、纸牌屋倒塌时，政府能想到的最快解决方案就是增加债务。我们从"延长和假装"变成了"拖延和祈祷"央行的干预在一段时间内可能是有效的，直到潜在问题以复仇的方式重新浮现。目前，世界上的债务比全球金融中心之前更多。国际金融研究所估计，目前全球债务与 GDP 之比为320%。
When reading the mainstream media,one can be persuaded to think all central banks are willing to"print"money to infinity and lower interest rates as far as they can—or launch a variety of the same—pushing us further into the abyss.Some of them,though,aren't that ignorant and are actively preparing for when paper currencies are forced to be devalued by the weight of debt issued in said currencies.
在阅读主流媒体时，我们可以相信，所有的央行都愿意"无限制地印刷"钞票，并尽可能地降低利率，或者推出各种类似的措施，将我们推向更深的深渊。然而，他们中的一些人并没有那么无知，他们正在积极地为纸币贬值做准备，因为以纸币发行的债务所占的比重会使纸币贬值。
There's one more development at a Western central bank I like to share.The Banque de France—whose vaults were a vibrant part of the global gold market during the classical gold standard—has not only upgraded its metal but also enhanced its entire vaulting infrastructure since the GFC.From BDF:
西方央行还有一个进展，我想和大家分享一下。在古典金本位制时期，法国央行的金库是全球黄金市场的一个活跃部分。自全球金本位制以来，法国央行不仅升级了金属，还加强了金库的整体基础设施。来自 BDF:
Since the 2008 financial crisis,there has been renewed interest in gold from reserve managers.
自2008年金融危机以来，外汇储备管理者对黄金的兴趣重新燃起。
As well as upgrading its stock,the Banque de France is taking various other steps to ensure it meets LBMA criteria[these standards apply for trading across the globe]…The renovation of the historical vaults housing the gold reserves has nearly been completed:the floor will be able to support heavy forklift trucks,and intermediary shelves have been inserted between the existing shelves to ensure the gold is only stacked five bars high,making handling easier.Other storage facilities will be available soon:either strong rooms for storing bare bars on shelves or large vaults to store sealed pallets,facilitate handling,transportation and auditing.By the end of the year,a new IT system will be in place to improve our ability to respond to market operation needs and other custody services.
除了提升其库存，伦敦法兰西银行交易所正在采取各种其他措施，以确保其符合 LBMA 的标准[这些标准适用于全球交易]......存放黄金储备的历史金库的翻新工作已接近完成:地板将能够支持重型叉车，中间货架已插入现有货架之间，以确保黄金只堆放5格，使处理更容易。其他储藏设施也将很快投入使用:要么是用于储存货架上裸杆的坚固房间，要么是用于储存密封托盘的大型金库，以方便搬运、运输和审计。到今年年底，一个新的 IT 系统将会到位，以提高我们对市场运作需求和其他托管服务的响应能力。
So,after the GFC,not only have Western central banks changed the way they talk about gold—that is,they have become more honest regarding gold's function as a safe haven—but,as a sector,central banks have also become net buyers.Many central banks have redistributed their gold,carefully considering all possible future risks and developments.A few central banks have upgraded their gold to current industry standards to be able to trade frictionless in international markets.One central bank,BDF,has even enhanced its entire vaulting infrastructure.And this is just based upon publicly available information.
因此，全球金融危机之后，西方各国央行不仅改变了它们谈论黄金的方式，也就是说，它们更诚实地认识到黄金作为避风港的作用，而且，作为一个部门，各国央行也成为了净买家。许多中央银行已经重新分配他们的黄金，仔细考虑所有可能的未来风险和发展。一些中央银行已经将他们的黄金升级到目前的行业标准，以便能够在国际市场上进行低摩擦的交易。一个中央银行，BDF，甚至加强了它的整个拱顶基础设施。这只是基于公开的信息。
We're all too familiar with central banks in the East openly buying gold,stimulating citizens to buy gold,setting up new gold exchanges,and de-dollarizing.In the West,these subjects are more sensitive for political reasons.As a result,since the GFC,Western central banks gently started moving towards gold,not to cause any shocks in the market.In 2015,I called this"the slow development towards gold,"and it's continuing still.
我们都太熟悉东部的中央银行公开购买黄金，刺激市民购买黄金，建立新的黄金交易所，和去美元化。在西方，出于政治原因，这些话题更为敏感。因此，自全球金融危机爆发以来，西方央行开始温和地转向黄金，以免在市场上引起任何震荡。在2015年，我称之为"通向黄金的缓慢发展"，并且仍在继续。
It's beyond the scope of this article to discuss every probable international monetary development and attribute a percentage chance to each of them.I think it's clear though,that many central banks are preparing for gold to play a resolving and pivotal role in future global finance.Why else buy,redistribute and upgrade gold,next to enhance trading facilities,increase transparency and then advertise gold's financial features?Keep in mind what Pericles said around 500 BC,"the key is not to predict the future but to prepare for it."
讨论每一个可能的国际货币发展并给每一个可能的国际货币发展指定一个百分比的概率超出了本文的范围。不过，我认为很明显，许多中央银行正在为黄金在未来全球金融中扮演解决问题和关键角色做准备。不然为什么要购买、再分配和升级黄金，然后加强交易设施，增加透明度，然后宣传黄金的金融特性？记住伯里克利在公元前500年左右说过的话:"关键不是预测未来，而是为它做好准备。"
Currently,Exter's Pyramid has grown too big and is unstable.The moment the pyramid falls,"gold will do its job."History teaches us gold protects its owners through all types of weather,and central banks know this.Ever wondered why virtually every central bank owns gold?Because gold is physical.Immutable,yet divisible.Independent and without counterparty risk.It is the ultimate store of value—as it retains its purchasing power through time—and works as an eternal payment instrument.
目前，Exter 的金字塔已经变得太大，并且不稳定。一旦金字塔倒塌，"黄金就会发挥作用。"历史告诉我们，黄金在各种天气下都会保护它的所有者，各国央行也知道这一点。有没有想过为什么几乎所有的央行都拥有黄金？因为黄金是物质的。不可改变，但是可以被分割。独立且无交易对手风险。它是价值的终极储存手段ーー因为它随着时间的推移仍然保持着购买力ーー并且是一种永恒的支付工具。
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来源：https://www.voimagold.com/insight/german-central-bank-gold-is-the-bedrock-of-stability-for-the-international-monetary-system
