2020:西方霸权主义的最后战斗

2019年12月31日10:01:402020:西方霸权主义的最后战斗已关闭评论 744 8993字阅读29分58秒
摘要

世界局势正在迅速发生变化,我们需要作出努力,以便跟上事态的发展。

The world situation is changing very fast and one needs to make an effort in order to keep pace with the events.The end of a year is a welcome opportunity for an assessment of the current situation.

世界局势正在迅速发生变化,我们需要作出努力,以便跟上事态的发展。年底是评估当前形势的一个可喜机会。

2020:西方霸权主义的最后战斗

I shall concentrate on two main subjects...

我将集中讨论两个主要问题..

2019:The West has lost the supremacy in the Middle East

2019:西方已经失去了在中东的霸主地位

I think that this was the most important change in the year drawing to a close.Iran has successfully and creatively defended herself against the"maximal pressure"from the USA and has kept her distance with the West European countries.Economically,the country has suffered from the US-sanctions,but she has now passed the biggest crisis.The country took the imposed problems as a motivation to improve the economical governance and to diminish the dependance from petrol.While in June,say,there was a more or less real danger of an aggressive war against Iran,now,this treat haas faded into the background.The report of UN-Secretary-General Guterres of Desember 10 saying that the UN,after an investigation in Saudi Arabia,cannot verify the US and Saudi claims that Iran was behind the strikes on Aramco in September,is a diplomatic victory for Iran.As for the Iranian trade,an official recently said that,during the last 9 months,China,Iraq,UAE,Afghanistan and Turkey were major destinations for the Iranian exports while Turkey,UAE and Germany are biggest Iranian trade in terms of imports.

我认为这是今年接近尾声时最重要的变化。伊朗成功地创造性地抵御了来自美国的"最大压力",与西欧国家保持了距离。在经济上,这个国家遭受了美国的制裁,但她现在已经度过了最大的危机。国家把这些强加的问题作为改善经济治理和减少对石油依赖的动力。比如说,在6月份,对伊朗发动侵略战争的危险或多或少是真实存在的,而现在,这种对哈斯的态度已经淡出了人们的视野。联合国秘书长古特雷斯910日的报告称,联合国在沙特阿拉伯进行调查后,无法核实美国和沙特关于伊朗是9月袭击 Aramco 幕后主使的说法,这是伊朗的一次外交胜利。至于伊朗的贸易,一位官员最近表示,在过去9个月里,中国、伊拉克、阿联酋、阿富汗和土耳其是伊朗出口的主要目的地,而土耳其、阿联酋和德国是伊朗进口最多的国家。

Syria has made further important progress in the fight against terrorism,in particular in the province Idleb.Moreover,the government and the army were able to utilize the partial withdrawal of the US occupying army in the north-east of the country.The reconstruction in Syria moves forward,Russian and Chinese enterprises will thereby play an important role.Hundreds of thousands refugees have come back.In short,as President Assad said in the interview with Italian Rai News 24:"[…]the situation is much,much better[…]and I think that the future of Syria is promising;we are going to come out of this war stronger."

叙利亚在打击恐怖主义,特别是在 Idleb 省,取得了进一步的重要进展。此外,政府和军队能够利用美国占领军在该国东北部的部分撤退。叙利亚重建向前推进,俄中企业将因此发挥重要作用。成千上万的难民已经回来了。简而言之,正如阿萨德总统在接受意大利 Rai 新闻24频道采访时所说:"局势要好得多,好得多......我认为叙利亚的未来是充满希望的;我们将更加坚强地走出这场战争。"

In the absurd war of Saudi Arabia against Yemen,the strategic situation has completely changed.Saudi Arabia has lost the initiative and different Arabian and African countries have stopped the support for the Saudi army.The Ansarallah movement of the Houthis has made important attacks,in particular against Aramco,and the movement has now strong official relations with Iran.

在沙特阿拉伯对也门的荒谬战争中,战略形势已经完全改变。沙特阿拉伯失去了主动权,阿拉伯和非洲国家也停止了对沙特军队的支持。胡塞武装的安萨拉拉运动发动了重大袭击,尤其是针对沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司的袭击,该运动目前与伊朗有着牢固的官方关系。

The West and Israel are still trying hard to exploit the economical and political crisis in Lebanon and Iraq.However,the patriotic forces in both countries were able to keep a positive outlook of the situation and could avoid to fall into the traps.

西方和以色列仍在努力利用黎巴嫩和伊拉克的经济和政治危机。然而,两国的爱国力量都能够对形势保持积极的态度,并能够避免落入陷阱。

There is no reason to think that the positive development in the Middle East will change in the next months.Quite the contrary.One can expect that the fight in Afghanistan against terrorism and US occupation will make important progress.Moreover,the influence of China and Russia will further increase.However,the general situation will remain tense.This is of course due to the fact that there is a country like Israel in this region which is utterly hostile against the neighboring countries and tyrannizes the indigenous population.

没有理由认为中东的积极事态发展会在今后几个月发生变化。恰恰相反。人们可以预期,阿富汗反对恐怖主义和美国占领的斗争将取得重要进展。此外,中国和俄罗斯的影响力将进一步增强。但是,总的形势仍然紧张。这当然是因为这个地区有一个像以色列这样的国家,对邻国充满敌意,对土著居民实行专制统治。

Asia as a whole has already widely casted off the yoke of Western hegemonism.As of South America,the developments in 2019 show–despite of the coup in Bolivia–a movement to more independence which very probably will continue.I would assume that this vague will also grow in Africa,in particular in Western and central Africa,due to the fight against terrorism and the beneficial influence of China and Russia.

整个亚洲已经广泛摆脱了西方霸权主义的枷锁。就南美洲而言,2019年的事态发展表明——尽管玻利维亚发生了政变——一场争取更多独立的运动很可能将继续下去。我认为,由于反恐斗争以及中国和俄罗斯的有益影响,这种模糊状态在非洲,特别是在西部和中部非洲也会加剧。

2020:The fight between the American national imperialism and Western hegemony will come to a decision

2020:美国民族帝国主义和西方霸权主义之间的斗争将会做出决定

Trump has won in 2016,based on his program of"America first".Since then,it has become more and more clear that this program is in fact a program of an American national imperialism.Trump is not interested in a"Western"perspective.A typical example are the US sanctions against numerous countries,even against traditional allies.This is a crucial change.Since the end of World War 2,the USA were constructed as a worldwide leading power.During the cold war,this has developed into the collective Western hegemony–including countries like Japan,Australia and others–with the USA as the undisputed leader.The emergence of an American national imperialism is a somewhat unexpected challenge for all other Western countries.Nevertheless,it is a logical evolution,provoked among other things by the declining power of Western hegemony and the appearance of China,the new Russia,as well as their strategic collaboration.

基于"美国优先"的计划,特朗普赢得了2016年的大选。从那时起,越来越清楚的是,这个计划实际上是一个美国帝国主义的计划。特朗普对"西方"视角不感兴趣。一个典型的例子是美国对许多国家的制裁,甚至是对传统盟友的制裁。这是一个至关重要的改变。第二次世界大战结束后,美国成为世界领先的强国。在冷战时期,这已经发展成为包括日本、澳大利亚和其他国家在内的西方集体霸权,美国是无可争议的领导者。对所有其他西方国家来说,美国民族帝国主义的出现是一个多少有些出乎意料的挑战。尽管如此,这是一个合乎逻辑的演变,由西方霸权的衰落、中国和新俄罗斯的出现以及两国的战略合作等因素引起的。

The traditional Western hegemonic forces have never accepted the election of Trump in 2016.They are very strong inside the US Democratic Party and in the US parliament in general,but also in Western Europe.With the impeachment and the US election in 2020,the fight between the both tendencies will reach a decision.One should expect that this fight will be very hard.The only logical outcome will be a victory of Trump;however,it is still to be seen whether this will be a clear victory or not.In other words,will the Western hegemonic forces be obliged to accept it this time?I think that these questions will be very crucial in 2020.

传统的西方霸权势力从未接受过特朗普2016年的当选。他们在美国民主党内部,在美国议会内部,以及在西欧都非常强大。随着2020年的弹劾和美国大选,这两种倾向之间的斗争将达成一个决定。人们应该预料到,这场斗争将是非常艰难的。唯一合乎逻辑的结果将是特朗普的胜利;然而,这是否是一场明显的胜利还有待观察。换句话说,这次西方霸权势力会不会被迫接受呢?我认为这些问题在2020年将是非常关键的。

Also for Western Europe,the influence of this fight will be immense.Concerning this matter,the UK is the most advanced country in Western Europe.After a struggle of 3 and half years,the population has given a clear mandate to the Johnson government to deliver Brexit.It is probable that now,where this central question is resolved,the development in the UK will be quite dynamical.The formation of a national imperialism will advance quickly.France also is rather well prepared for a victory of the American national imperialism;with the period of de Gaulle in the 1960s,she has a historical model.

同样对西欧来说,这场战斗的影响将是巨大的。在这个问题上,英国是西欧最先进的国家。经过三年半的斗争,人民已经明确授权约翰逊政府实施英国脱欧。现在,这个核心问题很可能得到解决,英国的发展将相当有活力。形成一个民族帝国主义是很快的。法国也为美帝国主义的胜利做了相当充分的准备;在戴高乐时期的20世纪60年代,她有一个历史典范。

On the other hand,I believe that Germany is the less prepared country.Germany is very anti-Trump.In 2016,polls in Germany indicated that up to 90%would vote for Hillary Clinton and only 4%for Donald Trump.The polls during the last years have clearly confirmed this rejection of Trump in the German population.Also,German Chancellor Merkel has been widely seen as a stronghold of the traditional Western hegemony and against American national imperialism.However,the situation is changing.Merkel has lost her authority and is now rather isolated.The awareness is growing that Trump does not stand for a parenthesis in history,but for a fundamental change.The impeachment is not judged as positive as one could await.Moreover,the German industry would like to have better relations with Russia.The US sanctions against Nord Stream 2 will only reinforce the will in Germany to become more autonomous.

另一方面,我认为德国是准备不足的国家。德国非常反对特朗普。2016年,德国的民意调查显示,高达90%的人会投票给希拉里·克林顿,只有4%的人会投票给唐纳德·特朗普。过去几年的民意调查清楚地证实了德国民众对特朗普的排斥。此外,德国总理默克尔被广泛认为是西方传统霸权主义和反对美国民族帝国主义的堡垒。然而,情况正在发生变化。默克尔已经失去了她的权威,现在相当孤立。人们越来越意识到,特朗普在历史上并不代表插入语,而是代表一种根本性的变化。弹劾并不像人们期待的那样是积极的。此外,德国工业界希望与俄罗斯建立更好的关系。美国对诺德溪流2号的制裁只会强化德国变得更加自治的意愿。

There is still another problem.While national imperialism has a long tradition in the UK and in France and will probably be accepted without too much of resistance,in Germany,national imperialism is not popular,for historical reasons.Therefore,one may predict that Germany will have a big debate on her political identity;even a profound crisis is possible.This is certainly complicated by the fact that Merkel has to be replaced and that there is–actually–no convincing successor.I am however quite confident that Germany will be able to find a way for playing a quite positive role in the future world.

还有一个问题。尽管民族帝国主义在英国和法国有着悠久的传统,而且很可能不经过多少反抗就会被接受,但在德国,由于历史原因,民族帝国主义并不受欢迎。因此,有人可能会预测,德国将会就其政治身份展开一场大辩论,甚至可能出现一场深刻的危机。这当然是复杂的事实,默克尔必须被取代,实际上,没有令人信服的继任者。然而,我相信德国将能够找到一种方式,在未来世界中发挥相当积极的作用。

We therefore may anticipate that Western hegemony is replaced by national imperialisms.Of course,they will remain a big problem for the world,even if the classical Western hegemony will suffer an important defeat.But the contradictions of other Western countries with the USA will strongly expand.This gives the remaining world much better perspectives.

因此,我们可以预见,西方霸权将被国家帝国主义所取代。当然,即使经典的西方霸权会遭受重大的失败,它们仍将是世界面临的一个大问题。但是其他西方国家与美国的矛盾将会强烈扩大。这给剩下的世界带来了更好的前景。

From my point of view,2019 was a very positive year and I am convinced that the same will be the case for 2020.

在我看来,2019年是非常积极的一年,我相信2020年也是如此。

来源:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/2020-final-combat-western-hegemonism

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  • 本文由 发表于 2019年12月31日10:01:40
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