没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

2020年8月25日15:20:17没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中已关闭评论 36615275字阅读50分55秒
摘要

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里……没有问题:瑞典没有进入冠状昏迷——它过着极其正常的生活。现在,多米尼克·桑德布鲁克问道:这是否证明我们完全搞错了?

No lockdown,no masks,no hysteria…NO PROBLEM:Sweden didn't go into a corona coma–and it's living in glorious normality.Now DOMINIC SANDBROOK asks:Is this proof we got it all terribly wrong?

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里......没有问题:瑞典没有进入冠状昏迷——它过着极其正常的生活。现在,多米尼克·桑德布鲁克问道:这是否证明我们完全搞错了?

A few days ago,I took a stroll to the shops.It was a glorious morning and the parks and cafés were full of families enjoying the sunshine.

几天前,我去逛了逛商店。这是一个阳光灿烂的早晨,公园和咖啡馆里挤满了享受阳光的家庭。

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

Perhaps the shops were a little quieter than they would have been a year ago;but they were busy enough.

也许商店比一年前安静了一些,但是他们已经够忙的了。

The restaurants were preparing for lunch;the mood was relaxed and happy.And nobody—yes,nobody—was wearing a mask.

餐馆正在准备午餐,气氛轻松愉快。没有人----是的,没有人----戴着面具。

That,of course,is the giveaway.

当然,这就是赠品。

I wasn't in Britain but in Sweden,a nation which stood alone in Europe in refusing to institute lockdown.

我不是在英国,而是在瑞典,一个在欧洲独自拒绝实施封锁的国家。

And as I queued to buy my son an ice cream,I was struck by the contrast with the situation back home.Like most people,I never imagined that the lockdown would last so long,or that the consequences would be so calamitous.

当我排队给儿子买冰淇淋的时候,我被家里的情况所震惊。像大多数人一样,我从未想到封锁会持续这么长时间,或者其后果会如此灾难性。

 

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

A taste of freedom:Swedes have been free to soak up the sun,play sports and socialise during the pandemic 自由的滋味:在流感大流行期间,瑞典人可以自由地沐浴阳光,进行体育运动和社交活动

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

A strict three-month long lockdown in the UK is expected to see the economy contract by around 11.5 per cent in 2020 预计到2020年,英国经济将收缩11.5%左右

 

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

This graph shows how the UK's economy has already been ravaged by the pandemic,with sharp falls in GDP,retail sales,industrial production and construction work–even when the latest figures include only a brief period of lockdown.The UK's unemployment rate increased only slightly in the latest figures,but separate statistics show a nearly 70 per cent rise in the number of people claiming Universal Credit 这张图表显示了英国经济已经受到了大流行病的严重破坏,GDP、零售额、工业生产和建筑工程均大幅下降——即使最新数据仅包括短暂的封锁期。最新数据显示,英国失业率仅略有上升,但另有统计数据显示,申请环球信贷的人数增加了近70%

 

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

This chart shows forecasts for the rest of 2020,with the UK's GDP set to plunge by more than Sweden's–while Britain is left with a larger budget deficit because of the cost of propping up the economy.Britain will also have a deficit in the current account,which is related to trade–showing the flow of goods,services and money between countries.However,the EU expects Sweden to have a higher unemployment rate this year 这张图表显示了对2020年剩余时间的预测,英国的国内生产总值(GDP)将比瑞典下降更多——而由于支撑经济的成本,英国将面临更大的预算赤字。英国的经常项目也会出现赤字,这与贸易有关——显示国家之间的商品、服务和货币流动。然而,欧盟预计瑞典今年的失业率会更高吗

Indeed,a few weeks after Boris Johnson announced the draconian restrictions on lives and livelihoods,I wrote on these pages that fears of a second Great Depression were overblown,and that with the right spirit,Britain would quickly bounce back.

事实上,就在鲍里斯·约翰逊宣布严厉限制生活和生计的几周后,我在这些页面上写道,对第二次大萧条的恐惧被夸大了,只要有正确的精神,英国将迅速恢复元气。

But as the months went by and we sank into inertia,my optimism evaporated.

但随着时间的推移,我们陷入了惰性,我的乐观情绪也随之蒸发了。

Recent figures suggest that our economy shrank by 20 per cent in the first three months of lockdown,a far worse decline than in other industrial countries such as the U.S.and Germany.

最近的数据显示,在封锁的前三个月,我们的经济萎缩了20%,比美国和德国等其他工业国家的情况要糟糕得多。

Most experts believe the worst is yet to come,with the Bank of England predicting that unemployment will hit 2.5 million by the end of the year.And even that may be too optimistic.

大多数专家认为最糟糕的情况还没有到来,英格兰银行预测到今年年底失业人数将达到250万。即便如此,这也可能过于乐观。

Yet despite these dire projections and the need to get the nation up and running—and in spite of the good news on the dramatic fall in death rates and admissions to hospital—parts of Britain remain in the grip of near-terminal paralysis.

然而,尽管有这些可怕的预测,尽管有必要让国家重新运转起来,尽管死亡率和住院人数大幅下降的好消息,英国部分地区仍然处于濒临死亡的瘫痪状态。

City centres are deserted,commuter trains empty and the offices that are open operating with skeleton staff.As a result,countless shops,pubs,restaurants and cafes have not bothered to reopen—and may never do so.

市中心空无一人,市郊往返列车空无一人,只有基本工作人员在营业的办公室里上班。结果,无数的商店、酒吧、餐馆和咖啡馆都懒得重新开张,而且可能永远也不会重新开张。

As for Boris Johnson,he appeared to have vanished without a trace—at least until the Mail tracked him down to a remote Scottish location this week.

至于鲍里斯约翰逊(Boris Johnson),他似乎消失得无影无踪——至少在本周《每日邮报》(Mail)追踪到他的一个偏远的苏格兰地点之前是这样。

The Government seems incapable of giving a lead and the public mood is characterised by bickering and bitter negativity.There is little sign of the upbeat,can-do spirit we badly need to revive our national fortunes.

政府似乎无能为力,公众的情绪充满了争吵和极度的消极。几乎没有迹象表明,要重振我们国家的命运,我们迫切需要乐观向上、积极进取的精神。

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

Sweden had a long-established plan for a pandemic and was going to stick to it.Pictured,people play beach volleyball at Gardet park amid the coronavirus outbreak in April 瑞典有一个长期制定的大流行计划,并将坚持执行。图为四月 Gardet 冠状病毒爆发期间,人们在公园玩沙滩排球

So it was with a sense of relief that two weeks ago I boarded the plane to the Swedish capital Stockholm.

因此,两周前我登上了飞往瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩的飞机,感到如释重负。

For in Sweden,leaders kept shops and offices open throughout,insisted that children went to school and still do not tell their citizens to wear masks.

因为在瑞典,领导人让商店和办公室全天营业,坚持让孩子们上学,但仍然不让他们的公民戴口罩。

Yet I can't deny I felt a twinge of anxiety.As fervent admirers of all things Scandinavian,we'd arranged our family holiday when the coronavirus was merely a glint in the eye of a Chinese bat.

然而,我不能否认,我感到一阵焦虑。作为所有斯堪的纳维亚东西的狂热崇拜者,当冠状病毒仅仅是中国蝙蝠眼中的一道闪光时,我们安排了我们全家的假期。

Occasionally I wondered if we might be sensible to cancel it.But my wife,a much braver person than me,would not hear of it.

偶尔我会想,我们是否应该取消它。但是我的妻子,一个比我勇敢得多的人,不会同意的。

And quite apart from the attractions of cinnamon buns,unspoiled forests and glittering Baltic waters,I was curious to see how the Swedes were getting on.

除了肉桂面包、未遭破坏的森林和波罗的海闪闪发光的海水之外,我还很好奇瑞典人过得怎么样。

For months their country has been the great outlier,inspiring admiration and horror in equal measure.

几个月以来,他们的国家一直是一个伟大的异类,既令人钦佩,也令人恐惧。

Some reports claimed that ordinary life was unchanged.

一些报道声称日常生活没有改变。

Others,especially in Left-wing circles,attacked Sweden as a dystopian disaster zone,as if the streets were littered with unburied bodies.

其他人,尤其是左翼人士,攻击瑞典是反乌托邦灾区,好像街道上到处都是未埋葬的尸体。

The author of the country's coronavirus strategy,a mild-mannered state epidemiologist called Anders Tegnell,has become one of the most controversial men in Europe.

该国冠状病毒战略的作者、态度温和的流行病学家安德斯泰格内尔(Anders Tegnell)已成为欧洲最具争议的人物之一。

From the start,he insisted that mandatory lockdown was a waste of time.Sweden had a long-established plan for a pandemic,Mr Tegnell said,and was going to stick to it.

从一开始,他就坚持认为强制封锁是浪费时间。泰格内尔先生说,瑞典有一个长期制定的大流行计划,并将坚持下去。

People should be sensible,wash their hands,avoid public transport and keep a safe distance,but that was it.

人们应该理智,洗手,避免乘坐公共交通工具,保持安全距离,但仅此而已。

Closing schools was'meaningless'.Shutting borders was'ridiculous'.Masks were,by and large,a waste of time.Shops and restaurants should stay open.

关闭学校是毫无意义的。关闭边境是荒谬的。总的来说,戴面具是浪费时间。商店和餐馆应该继续营业。

And when interviewers asked why Sweden was not following Germany,France and Britain in locking down,Mr Tegnell had a robust answer.

当采访者问到为什么瑞典没有效仿德国、法国和英国的封锁政策时,Tegnell 先生给出了一个有力的回答。

Other countries,he said,had'panicked'.But panicking was not the Swedish way.

他说,其他国家"惊慌失措",但惊慌失措不是瑞典的做法。

Even as the virus spread,death rates soared and hospitals in Italy and Spain were overwhelmed,Sweden stuck to its guns.No lockdown.

尽管病毒蔓延,死亡率飙升,意大利和西班牙的医院不堪重负,但瑞典仍坚持自己的立场。没有封锁。

The results were not perfect.Like us,the Swedes failed to protect their care homes.

结果并不完美,像我们一样,瑞典人没能保护他们的养老院。

By the time I landed in Stockholm,their death rate stood at almost 57 per 100,000 people,far worse than in neighbouring Nordic countries.

到我抵达斯德哥尔摩时,他们的死亡率已经接近每10万人57人,远远低于邻近的北欧五国。

In fairness,though,Sweden is in parts more densely populated than most of Norway,Denmark and Finland,with three large cities in Stockholm,Gothenburg and Malmo.

不过,公平地说,瑞典部分地区的人口密度比挪威、丹麦和芬兰的大部分地区都要高,其中有3个大城市分别位于斯德哥尔摩、戈森堡和马尔默。

And Sweden's death rate is still lower than those in Belgium(87 per 100,000 people),Spain(62),Britain(62)and Italy(58)—all of which did go into lockdown.

瑞典的死亡率仍然低于比利时(10万人中有87)、西班牙(62)、英国(62)和意大利(58)——所有这些国家都进入了一级防范状态。

So what did I make of it?Well,that's easy.After the negativity,paranoia,moaning and squabbling of Britain,Sweden was paradise.

那么我是怎么看待这件事的呢?那很简单。在经历了英国的消极、偏执、呻吟和争吵之后,瑞典成了天堂。

The contrast struck me almost immediately at the supermarket.Usually the sky-high Scandinavian prices leave me wincing in anguish.

在超市里,这种对比几乎立刻就打动了我。通常,斯堪的纳维亚高昂的价格会让我痛苦地畏缩。

But this time I barely noticed them,too busy enjoying the lack of queues outside the shop,the absence of masks and the generally relaxed atmosphere.

但这一次我几乎没有注意到他们,因为他们忙于享受商店外面没有排队、没有面具和总体上轻松的气氛。

Nobody recoiled in horror when our trolley came within five metres of them.Nor did people shrink in terror when another shopper appeared in the aisle,as is the norm in British supermarkets these days.

当我们的手推车驶近他们五米之内时,没有人惊恐地往后退。当另一个购物者出现在过道时,人们也不会惊恐地退缩,这在当今的英国超市是很正常的。

That set the tone for the next two weeks.For the Swedes,summer life has carried on as normal.

这为接下来的两周奠定了基调。对于瑞典人来说,夏天的生活照常进行。

Perhaps people give strangers a little more distance than they usually would—but so sensibly,so discreetly,that you barely noticed.

也许人们与陌生人之间的距离比平时多了一点ーー但是如此明智,如此谨慎,以至于你几乎没有注意到。

When we went kayaking in the gorgeous Stockholm archipelago,the guide told us that he was fully booked at weekends,even though foreign tourist numbers had plummeted.

当我们在美丽的斯德哥尔摩群岛公园划独木舟时,导游告诉我们,尽管外国游客数量直线下降,他周末的行程已经排满了。

Similarly,when we visited the stunning Baltic island of Gotland,a kind of Scandinavian version of Cornwall,the holiday season was in full swing.

同样,当我们参观了令人惊叹的波罗的海岛屿哥得兰岛,一种康沃尔的斯堪的纳维亚版本,假日季节是全面展开。

The restaurants were busy and we often needed a booking to get in.Yes,we were offered hand sanitiser on arrival,but there was no great song and dance about it.

餐馆很忙,我们经常需要预约才能进去。是的,我们在到达的时候被提供洗手液,但是没有很好的歌曲和舞蹈。

Since most Swedes speak excellent English,we often asked people what they made of it all.And the answers were always the same.

由于大多数瑞典人英语说得很好,我们经常问人们他们是如何理解英语的。答案总是一样的。

Yes,they were sorry that the virus had got into their care homes.But without exception,the Swedes were glad to have escaped lockdown.

是的,他们为病毒进入他们的养老院而感到遗憾。但无一例外,瑞典人都很高兴能逃脱封锁。

By this time,with the A-level shambles beginning to unfold back home,I was feeling miserable about the prospect of returning.

到这时,随着 a 级水平的混乱开始展开回家,我感到痛苦的前景返回。

But perhaps the Swedish experience was too good to be true?I had a look at the latest figures to find out.

但也许瑞典的经历太美好了,难以置信?我看了一下最新的数据,想弄清楚。

On August 3,the day we arrived in Stockholm,just one Swedish person was reported to have died of Covid-19.The next day's death toll was three.The following day's was 13;then it was down to six.

83日,也就是我们到达斯德哥尔摩的那天,据报道只有一个瑞典人死于新型冠状病毒肺炎。第二天的死亡人数是三人。第二天是13个,然后下降到6个。

According to Sebastian Rushworth,an American-born doctor in a Stockholm A&E department,he hasn't seen a single Covid-19 patient in a month:'Basically,'he writes,'Covid is in all practical senses over and done with in Sweden.'So should Britain have followed the Swedish example?

斯德哥尔摩一家急诊室的美国医生 Sebastian Rushworth 说,他已经一个月没有看到一个新型冠状病毒肺炎病人了,他写道,'基本上,'他说,'在瑞典,考维德已经完全没有任何实际意义了那么,英国应该效仿瑞典的做法吗?

One obvious counter-argument is that Britain is even more densely populated,with almost 70 million people to Sweden's ten million.Perhaps we were always going to need some sort of lockdown,if only temporarily.

一个显而易见的反驳是,英国的人口更加稠密,几乎有7000万人,而瑞典有1000万人。也许我们总是需要某种封锁,哪怕只是暂时的。

In every other respect,though,I think the comparison shows us in an almost embarrassing light.

不过,在其他方面,我认为这种比较几乎让我们陷入了尴尬的境地。

In the first three months,Sweden's economy shrank by approximately 9 per cent—less than half the downturn in our own economy.

今年头三个月,瑞典经济萎缩了约9%,不到我国经济低迷的一半。

Our children stayed at home;theirs went to school.Our businesses closed;theirs stayed open.Our social and cultural life ground to a halt;theirs continued—with some sensible restrictions.

我们的孩子呆在家里,他们的孩子上学去了。我们的生意关门了,他们的还在营业。我们的社会和文化生活陷入停顿;他们的生活继续着ーー有一些合理的限制。

At the top,the difference could hardly be more glaring.Sweden's scientists drew up a plan,and their government calmly followed it.

在顶端,差异不能再明显了。瑞典的科学家们制定了一个计划,他们的政府冷静地遵循着这个计划。

Even as international criticism of his tactics mounted,Mr Tegnell remained calm.Again and again he repeated that there was no point in panicking,no point in making crowd-pleasing gestures and no point in committing economic suicide.

尽管国际上对他的策略的批评越来越多,泰格内尔先生仍然保持冷静。他一次又一次地重申,恐慌是没有意义的,做出取悦大众的姿态是没有意义的,经济自杀也是没有意义的。

Contrast that with Britain's politicians,floundering around like drunkards at closing time,flip-flopping on policy and constantly being dragged into ever more stringent measures to appease the public hysteria.

与此形成对比的是,英国的政客们在闭幕时像醉汉一样挣扎,在政策上摇摆不定,不断被拖入更加严厉的措施,以平息公众的歇斯底里。

But perhaps it's too easy to blame Boris Johnson&Co—who are,after all,merely a reflection of the society they serve.

但是,要指责鲍里斯约翰逊公司(Boris Johnson&Co)或许太容易了——毕竟,他们只是他们所服务的社会的一个反映。

Mr Tegnell's approach worked because the Swedes are a serious,sensible,law-abiding lot,who believe in individual responsibility and can be trusted to behave themselves.

泰格内尔先生的方法之所以奏效,是因为瑞典人是一群严肃、明智、遵纪守法的人,他们相信个人责任,可以信赖他们会规规矩矩。

Again,contrast that with the scenes here:first the panic-buying of toilet rolls;then the punch-ups in supermarket aisles and car parks;the absurd crowds on South Coast beaches;even the mobs of'anti-racist'anarchists who thought a pandemic was the ideal time to rant and rave.All pretty miserable,I know.

再次与这里的场景形成对比:首先是对卫生纸的恐慌性购买;然后是超市过道和停车场上的拳打脚踢;南海岸海滩上荒谬的人群;甚至还有那些认为大流行是咆哮和咆哮的理想时机的"反种族主义"无政府主义者的暴徒。我知道,一切都很悲惨。

And I can't deny that when we flew back to face a fortnight's quarantine,I felt distinctly depressed,not just at the thought of all those blasted masks,but at the prospect of all the Left-wing whining,Right-wing bickering,political incompetence and general irresponsibility ahead.

我不能否认,当我们飞回去面对长达两周的隔离时,我感到非常沮丧,不仅仅是想到那些该死的面具,还想到所有左翼人士的牢骚、右翼人士的争吵、政治上的无能和总体上的不负责任。

So in Scandinavian spirit,here's a positive note on which to end.

因此,在斯堪的纳维亚精神,这里有一个积极的注意,以结束。

Tragic as the death toll in Britain has been,it has not come close to the 250,000 predicted by Professor Neil Ferguson's apocalyptic model,which reportedly inspired Boris Johnson's decision to impose a lockdown.

尽管英国的死亡人数已经很悲惨了,但还是无法接近尼尔·弗格森教授(Neil Ferguson)的启示录模型所预测的25万人的死亡人数。据报道,这个模型促使鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)决定实施封锁。

没有封锁,没有面具,没有歇斯底里;瑞典生活在辉煌的正常之中

So what did I make of it?Well,that's easy.After the negativity,paranoia,moaning and squabbling of Britain,Sweden was paradise 那么我是怎么看待这件事的呢?那很简单。在经历了英国的消极、偏执、呻吟和争吵之后,瑞典成了天堂

The death rate has been declining for months—a 95 per cent fall since the peak in April.

死亡率数月来一直在下降,自4月份的峰值水平下降了95%

Coronavirus casualties are now six times lower than deaths from flu and pneumonia.In the week to July 31,just 2.2 per cent of deaths in England and Wales were caused by Covid.

冠状病毒的死亡人数现在是流感和肺炎死亡人数的六倍。在截至731日的一周内,英格兰和威尔士只有2.2%的死亡是由 Covid 造成的。

Children don't seem to suffer from the virus,or spread it much.Just one healthy child is known to have died from Covid in Britain[IF the diagnostic was in fact correct],and there is not a single case recorded worldwide of a child giving the virus to a teacher.

孩子们似乎没有受到这种病毒的影响,也没有太多的传播。在英国,已知只有一名健康儿童死于 Covid(如果诊断结果是正确的),而且全世界没有一例儿童将病毒传染给教师的记录。

We know who is at greatest risk(the very old,the very fat,people with Caribbean and Asian backgrounds or with underlying problems such as diabetes and lung disease),and our clinicians have got much better at treating and managing the disease.

我们知道谁的风险最大(非常老的、非常胖的、有加勒比和亚洲背景或有糖尿病和肺病等潜在问题的人),我们的临床医生在治疗和管理这种疾病方面做得更好。

There's no reason,in other words,why Britain's politicians can't change the record—and they must do so fast,even if it disrupts their precious holidays.

换句话说,英国的政治家们没有理由不能改变历史记录,而且他们必须尽快改变历史记录,即使这会打乱他们宝贵的假期。

For too long we've been ruled by paranoia.But economic logic and sheer common sense dictate that we can't remain paralysed for a minute longer.

长久以来,我们一直被偏执狂所控制。但经济逻辑和纯粹的常识告诉我们,我们不能再继续瘫痪一分钟了。

The priority now must be to restart the engines of enterprise and rebuild the economy.Life always involves an element of risk,and as long as we're sensible,we need to get back to normal and free ourselves from our national funk.

现在的当务之急是重新启动企业的引擎,重建经济。生活总是充满了风险,只要我们明智,我们就需要回归正常,摆脱国民恐惧。

So now is the time—albeit belatedly—for Boris Johnson to issue a call to arms.

因此,现在是鲍里斯约翰逊(Boris Johnson)发出战斗号召的时候了——尽管为时已晚。

He may fancy himself as the reincarnation of Churchill,but so far he has failed to match the great man's courage at a time of national crisis.

他可能把自己想象成丘吉尔的转世,但到目前为止,在国家危机时期,他还没有能够与这位伟人的勇气相匹敌。

Now,more than ever,he needs to throw off his caution and rally the nation.

现在,他比以往任何时候都更需要抛开他的谨慎,团结整个国家。

The truth is that for many of us,the last few months have been one long holiday from reality.But the summer is almost over and the economy is on life-support.It's time we got back to work.

事实上,对我们中的许多人来说,过去的几个月是一个与现实脱节的漫长假期。但是夏天已经快结束了,经济已经岌岌可危。我们该回去工作了。

»Source

转自:

https://eraoflight.com/2020/08/25/no-lockdown-no-masks-no-hysteria-sweden-is-living-in-glorious-normality/

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  • 本文由 发表于 2020年8月25日15:20:17
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