金融危机以来新兴市场央行大幅降息引发恐慌

2019年9月5日13:09:41金融危机以来新兴市场央行大幅降息引发恐慌已关闭评论 535 11420字阅读38分4秒
摘要

全球经济增长前景是自上次金融危机以来最低的,各国央行,尤其是新兴市场的央行,已经开始降息,以确保经济增长不会崩溃。

The global growth outlook is the lowest since the last financial crisis,and central banks,especially ones in emerging markets,have already started to cut interest rates to make sure growth doesn't collapse.

全球经济增长前景是自上次金融危机以来最低的,各国央行,尤其是新兴市场的央行,已经开始降息,以确保经济增长不会崩溃。

Manufacturing across large parts of South America,Europe,Asia,and the Middle East are reeling from a global structural slowdown,amplified by the US and China trade war,have triggered emerging central banks to cut rates by the most in a decade,reported Reuters.

据路透社(Reuters)报道,南美、欧洲、亚洲和中东大部分地区的制造业正受到全球结构性放缓的影响,这种放缓被美国和中国的贸易战放大,已促使新兴国家的央行进行10年来最大幅度的降息。


Emerging central banks took notice when major central banks including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank started to cut interest rates this summer,all in an attempt to lessen the impact of a global synchronized slowdown.

今年夏天,包括美联储(fed)和欧洲央行(ecb)在内的主要央行开始降息,这一切都是为了减轻全球同步放缓的影响,引起了新兴国家央行的注意。


Central banks across 37 emerging market economies recorded a net fourteen rate cuts in August,the most since policymakers dropped rates to zero after the global financial crash in 2008/09.

8月份,37个新兴市场经济体的央行净降息十四次,这是自2008/09年全球金融危机后决策者将利率降至零以来的最大降息幅度。

August marked the seventh straight month of net rate cuts followed by a tightening cycle that ended in early 2019.July recorded a net eight rate cuts.Cuts by Mexico and Thailand in August took markets by surprise.

8月标志着连续第七个月的净降息,紧接着的紧缩周期在2019年初结束。7月份,美联储净降息8次。墨西哥和泰国8月份的减产措施出乎市场意料。

After nine straight months of rate hikes in 2018,emerging central banks battled the fallout from a firm dollar,increasing inflation,and weaker local currencies.

2018年连续9个月的加息之后,新兴国家的中央银行正在与美元坚挺、通货膨胀加剧和本国货币贬值的影响作斗争。

Here's a complete list of the recent emerging market central bank policy decessions:

以下是最近新兴市场央行政策放弃的完整列表:

    PARAGUAY-The central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%on Aug.21.

巴拉圭-中央银行在821日将其政策利率下调25个基点至4.25%

    INDONESIA-The central bank,hoping it can spur faster growth at home despite a global slowdown,surprisingly cut its key interest rate for a second time in two months on Aug.22.

印度尼西亚——印尼央行于822日出人意料地在两个月内第二次下调基准利率,希望能在全球经济放缓的情况下刺激国内经济更快增长。

    MEXICO-Policymakers cut on Aug.15 the key lending rate by 25 basis points to 8.00%-the first reduction since June 2014,citing slowing inflation and increasing slack in the economy,and fuelling expectations that further monetary policy easing could be on the way.

墨西哥——815日,政策制定者将主要贷款利率下调25个基点,至8.00%,这是自20146月以来的首次下调,理由是通货膨胀放缓和经济增长疲软,并引发了进一步放松货币政策可能即将到来的预期。

    EGYPT-Egypt's central bank cut the overnight deposit rate by 150 basis points to 14.25%on Aug.22,its first cut since February,after July inflation figures came in significantly below expectations

埃及——822日,埃及央行将隔夜存款利率下调150个基点,至14.25%,这是自2月份以来的首次降息,此前7月份的通胀数据显著低于预期

    MOZAMBIQUE-The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points on Aug.14 to 12.75%.

莫桑比克——814日,莫央行将基准利率下调50个基点,至12.75%

    JAMAICA-Jamaica's central bank cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%on Aug.28.

牙买加——828日,牙买加中央银行将利率下调25个基点至0.50%

    NAMIBIA-Policymakers reduced the lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%on Aug.14.

纳米比亚——814日,政策制定者将贷款利率下调25个基点至6.5%

    MAURITIUS-The central bank on Aug.9 cut the repo rate by 0.15 basis points to 3.35%.

毛里求斯——89日,中国央行将回购利率下调0.15个基点至3.35%

    PERU-The central bank cut the benchmark interest rate to 2.5%on Aug.9 amid growing expectations for an economic slowdown in the world's No.2 copper producer,but stressed its decision did not necessarily mean the start of an easing cycle.

89日,秘鲁央行将基准利率下调至2.5%,原因是人们对这个世界第二大铜生产国经济增长放缓的预期越来越高,但央行强调,这一决定并不一定意味着一个宽松周期的开始。

    SERBIA-The Serbian central bank surprised markets by cutting its benchmark interest rate another 25 basis points to 2.5%on Aug.8,the second cut in as many months,to further bolster lending and growth.

塞尔维亚——88日,塞尔维亚央行将基准利率再次下调25个基点,至2.5%,这是几个月来的第二次降息,以进一步提振贷款和经济增长,令市场感到意外。

    THE PHILIPPINES-The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate on Aug.8 and kept the door open for further easing to buttress the economy after growth slipped to its weakest in 17 quarters,hurt by tepid government spending and private sector investment.

菲律宾——由于受到政府支出和私营部门投资不振的影响,菲律宾经济增长降至17个季度以来的最低水平,菲律宾央行于88日下调了基准利率,并为进一步放松支撑经济的政策敞开了大门。

    BOTSWANA-The central bank cut the lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%on Aug.29.

博茨瓦纳——829日,中国央行将贷款利率下调25个基点,至4.75%

    INDIA-The Reserve Bank of India(RBI)lowered its benchmark interest rates for a fourth straight meeting on Aug.7 with a slightly bigger than expected cut,underscoring its worries about India's near-five year low pace of economic growth.

印度——印度储备银行(RBI)87日连续第四次下调基准利率,降息幅度略高于预期,突显其对印度经济增长近五年低点的担忧。

    BELARUS-The central bank said on Aug.7 it was cutting its main interest rate to 9.5%from 10%with effect from Aug.14 and that the intensity of inflationary processes had slowed in the second quarter.

白俄罗斯——87日,中央银行宣布从814日起将主要利率从10%下调至9.5%,第二季度通货膨胀的强度有所放缓。

    THAILAND-Policymakers unexpectedly cut the benchmark rate on Aug.7,expressing worry about strength of the baht and aiming to help support faltering growth.

泰国——决策者在87日出人意料地下调基准利率,表达了对泰铢走强的担忧,旨在帮助支持步履蹒跚的经济增长。

    JORDAN-The central bank of Jordan reduced its main rate in early August by 25 basis points to 4.5%.

约旦——约旦中央银行在8月初将其主要利率下调了25个基点至4.5%

    HONG KONG-The Hong Kong Monetary Authority(HKMA)cut its base rate charged through the overnight discount window by 25 basis points to 2.5%on Aug.1,its first cut since late 2008,in line with the U.S.Federal Reserve's move.Hong Kong's monetary policy moves in lock-step with the Fed as its dollar is pegged at a tight range of 7.75-7.85 per dollar.

香港——香港金融管理局(金管局)81日将隔夜贴现窗口基准利率下调25个基点至2.5%,这是自2008年底以来的首次下调,与美联储的做法一致。香港的货币政策走势与美联储步调一致,因为香港的美元汇率紧盯7.75-7.85的汇率区间。

    MOLDOVA-The central bank raised its main interest rate to 7.5%from 7%on July 31 to fight rising inflation caused by wage increases and higher food prices.

摩尔多瓦——中央银行将其主要利率从731日的7%提高到7.5%,以对抗工资上涨和食品价格上涨引起的通货膨胀。

    SAUDI ARABIA/BAHRAIN/UNITED ARAB EMIRATES-Central banks of Saudi Arabia,Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates-whose currencies are all pegged to the U.S.dollar-cut key interest rates to preserve monetary stability on July 31 after the Federal Reserve lowered U.S.interest rates for the first time in over a decade.

沙特阿拉伯/巴林/阿拉伯联合酋长国-沙特阿拉伯、巴林和美国的中央银行-这些国家的货币都与美元挂钩-在美联储十多年来首次降低美国利率后,于731日降低关键利率以保持货币稳定。

    BRAZIL-In its first rate cut since March 2018,the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a new low of 6.00%on July 31,an aggressive first move in a widely anticipated easing cycle to inject life into a moribund economy and prevent inflation from slipping too far below target.

巴西——这是自20183月以来的首次降息,巴西央行于731日将基准利率下调至6.00%的新低,这是人们广泛预期的宽松周期中激进的第一步举措,目的是为奄奄一息的经济注入活力,防止通货膨胀率远低于目标水平。

    AZERBAIJAN-The central bank said on July 26 it had cut its refinancing rate to 8.25%from 8.50%.

阿塞拜疆-阿塞拜疆央行726日表示,已将再融资利率从8.50%下调至8.25%

    RUSSIA-Policymakers cut the key interest rate on July 26 and flagged that one or two more cuts were possible later this year as Russia faces sluggish economic growth and slowing inflation.

俄罗斯-政策制定者于726日下调基准利率,并表示,随着俄罗斯面临经济增长乏力和通胀放缓,今年晚些时候还可能再次下调一两个基准利率。

    TURKEY-The central bank slashed its key interest rate by a bigger-than-expected 425 basis points to 19.75%on July 25 to spur a recession-hit economy,its first step away from the emergency stance adopted during last year's currency crisis.

土耳其——725日,土耳其央行大幅下调基准利率425个基点,至19.75%,超出预期,以刺激遭受衰退打击的经济,这是央行摆脱去年货币危机期间采取的紧急立场的第一步。

    SOUTH AFRICA-The central bank cut its main lending rate as expected on July 18,but struck a cautious tone that suggested future cuts in borrowing costs were not a foregone conclusion despite benign inflation.

南非——南非央行在718日如预期的那样下调了主要贷款利率,但是采取了谨慎的语气,暗示尽管通货膨胀温和,未来降低借贷成本并不是一个必然的结果。

    UKRAINE-Policymakers cut the main interest rate by half a percentage point to 17%on July 18,citing a downward inflation trend which is expected to continue in coming months and could pave the way for further monetary easing.

乌克兰——政策制定者于718日将主要利率下调0.5个百分点至17%,理由是通货膨胀的下行趋势预计将在未来几个月持续下去,这可能为进一步放松货币政策铺平道路。

    SOUTH KOREA-The central bank delivered a surprise interest rate cut on July 18,and shaved this year's growth forecast to the lowest in a decade,as a brewing dispute with Japan piled more pressure on the trade-dependent economy.

韩国-718日,韩国央行出人意料地宣布降息,并将今年的经济增长预期下调至10年来的最低水平,因为韩日之间正在酝酿的争端给这个依赖贸易的经济体带来了更大的压力。

    PAKISTAN-Policymakers hiked the main interest rate by 100 basis points on July 16 to 13.25%,citing increased inflationary pressures and a likely near-term rise in prices from higher utility costs.

巴基斯坦——716日,巴基斯坦决策者将主要利率上调100个基点,至13.25%,理由是通胀压力增加,以及公用事业成本上升可能导致物价近期上涨。

    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-Policymakers cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5%on June 30.

多米尼加-630日,决策者将利率下调50个基点至5%

    COSTA RICA-The central bank cut the key policy rate to 4.50%from 4.75%from June 20.

哥斯达黎加——620日起,中央银行将主要政策利率从4.75%下调至4.50%

    CHILE-Chile's central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%on June 7 as it braced for a sharper economic slowdown because of the U.S.-China trade dispute.

智利——67日,智利央行出人意料地将基准利率下调50个基点至2.5%,以应对因美中贸易纠纷而出现的更严重的经济放缓。

    SRI LANKA-The central bank cut its key interest rates by 50 basis points on May 31,as widely expected,to support its faltering economy as overall business and consumer confidence slumped following deadly bomb attacks.

SRI LANKA——531日,正如外界普遍预期的那样,中国央行将主要利率下调50个基点,以支撑其步履蹒跚的经济。在致命的炸弹袭击之后,中国整体商业和消费者信心大幅下滑。

    TAJIKISTAN-The central bank reduced the refinancing rate to 13.25%from 14.75%on May 31.

塔吉克斯坦-中央银行将再融资利率从531日的14.75%降至13.25%

    KYRGYZSTAN-Policymakers in the Central Asian nation cut the benchmark rate to 4.25%from 4.50%on May 28,citing slowing inflation.

吉尔吉斯斯坦-中亚国家的政策制定者将基准利率从528日的4.50%下调至4.25%,理由是通货膨胀放缓。

    ANGOLA-Angola's central bank cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 15.5%on May 24.

安哥拉-安哥拉央行于524日将基准贷款利率下调25个基点,至15.5%

    ZAMBIA-The central bank in Lusaka raised the benchmark lending rate to 10.25%from 9.75%on May 22 to counter inflationary pressure and support macroeconomic stability.

赞比亚——卢萨卡央行将基准贷款利率从522日的9.75%提高到10.25%,以应对通胀压力,支持宏观经济稳定。

    MALAYSIA-The central bank on May 7 became the first in Southeast Asia to cut its key interest rate this year,by 25 basis points to 3.0%,moving to support its economy at a time of concern about global growth.

马来西亚——57日,马来西亚央行成为今年东南亚第一个下调基准利率的国家,将基准利率下调25个基点至3.0%,以便在全球经济增长令人担忧之际支持本国经济。

    RWANDA-Rwanda's central bank cut its key repo rate by 50 basis points on May 6 to 5.0%.

卢旺达——56日,卢旺达央行将关键回购利率下调50个基点至5.0%

    MALAWI-Malawi's central bank cut its benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points on May 3 to 3.5%.

马拉维-53日,马拉维中央银行将其基准贷款利率下调100个基点至3.5%

    CZECH REPUBLIC-The Czech National Bank raised interest rates on May 2,using a window of opportunity created by easing economic risks abroad to stem rising domestic inflation by fine-tuning a tightening cycle it had paused at the end of 2018.

捷克共和国——捷克国家银行(CZECH National Bank)52日提高了利率,通过微调2018年底暂停的紧缩周期,利用国外经济风险缓解带来的机会之窗,遏制国内通胀上升。

    KAZAKHSTAN-Policymakers cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 9.00%on April 15 in an expected move taken after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ordered them to make credit more affordable.

哈萨克斯坦----415日,政策制定者将政策利率下调25个基点至9.00%,这是在总统卡瑟姆若马尔特·托卡耶夫下令政策制定者提高信贷负担能力后预期采取的举措。

    NIGERIA-In a surprise move,the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 13.5%from 14%on March 26 as part of an attempt to stimulate growth in Africa's biggest economy and signal a"new direction".

尼日利亚——作为刺激这个非洲最大经济体增长和标志"新方向"的努力的一部分,尼日利亚央行出人意料地将基准利率从326日的14%降至13.5%

    GEORGIA-The central bank cut its refinancing rate to 6.5%from 6.75%on March 13,citing forecasts suggesting that annual inflation would stay close to its 3%target this year.

佐治亚-佐治亚央行将再融资利率从313日的6.75%下调至6.5%,理由是预计今年的年度通胀率将接近3%的目标。

    TUNISIA-Policymakers in Tunisia raised the key interest rate to 7.75%from 6.75%on Feb.19 to combat high inflation-the third such hike in the past 12 months.

突尼斯——突尼斯的政策制定者在219日将关键利率从6.75%提高到7.75%,以抗击高通胀——这是过去12个月来的第三次提高利率。

The reason emerging market central banks were delivering the most cuts in a decade last month is that the world is likely in a trade recession that could significantly worsen into 1H20.

上个月,新兴市场国家的央行之所以实施了10年来最大幅度的降息,是因为全球贸易衰退可能会明显恶化,进入下半年。

Many emerging market countries have export-driven economies to the developed world,and when demand slows down,their economies suffer the most.

许多新兴市场国家向发达国家出口驱动型经济,当需求放缓时,它们的经济受到的影响最大。

Rate cuts from August will take at least one year to filter into emerging markets,which means economic data from the 37 regions will likely stay depressed for some time.

8月份开始的降息将至少需要一年时间才能渗透到新兴市场,这意味着37个地区的经济数据可能会在一段时间内持续低迷。

来源:https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-03/emerging-market-central-banks-panic-most-rate-cuts-financial-crisis

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