为什么马克•卡尼认为美元不再是世界储备货币

2019年8月26日11:15:47为什么马克•卡尼认为美元不再是世界储备货币已关闭评论 40414283字阅读47分36秒

While Jerome Powell's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech was,in the words of Brean Capital's Russ Certo"underwhelming and anti-climatic",one couldn't say the same for the shocking luncheon speech by Bank of England's outgoing governor,Mark Carney,titled"The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the current International Monetary and Financial System",where he dedicated no less than 23 pages to a stunning-for a central banker-cause:to describe why the dollar's"destabilizing"reserve status role in the world economy has to end,and why central banks need to join together to create their own replacement reserve currency,one potentially tied to Facebook's new"stablecoin"Libra,although in reality any"Synthetic Hegemonic Currency"as Carney defined it would do.

虽然杰罗姆鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)备受期待的杰克逊霍尔演讲——用布林资本(Brean Capital)的拉斯塞尔托(Russ Certo)的话来说——"乏善可陈且反气候",但人们不能对英格兰银行(Bank of England)即将离任的行长马克卡尼(Mark Carney)令人震惊的午餐会演讲说同样的话。演讲的题目是"当前国际货币与金融体系中货币政策面临的日益严峻的挑战"他用不少于23页的篇幅阐述了一个令人震惊的龙国必须停止在世界经济中扮演"破坏稳定的"储备地位的角色,以及为什么各国央行需要联合起来创造自己的替代储备货币——一种可能与 Facebook 挂钩的货币,尽管在现实生活中,任何一种卡尼定义的"综合霸权货币"都会这样做。

But first,a quick tangent:the reason we say Carney's speech was shocking is not for what it proposes-after all,we have long argued that a world in which the dollar's reserve currency status would be stripped away by the establishment and granted to some alternative-whether gold,or a basket of currencies like the IMF's SDR,or a cryptocurrency like bitcoin-is coming in posts such as:

但是,首先,我们要转移话题:我们说卡尼的讲话令人震惊的原因并不是因为它提出了什么——毕竟,我们长期以来一直认为,一个美元的储备货币地位将被权势集团剥夺,并授予某种替代货币的世界——无论是黄金,还是 IMF 特别提款权(SDR)等一篮子货币,抑或比特币等加密货币——正在出现在以下帖子中:

The argument behind all these articles is simple and two-fold:i)in a fiat world,one can only devalue relative to some other currency,yet we have now reached a point where(as Pimco suggested two years ago when it said the Fed should buy gold to devalue the dollar against it)every currency needs to devalue relative to some hard index outside of the monetary system(Carney's point is that with a dollar as reserve currency anchor,it is becoming virtually impossible to lower its value even though it's critical to do that),which means that ii)the unprecedented credit expansion that began when the last peg to gold was broken in 1971 when Nixon ended the Bretton Woods international system,has gone too far,and establishment powers are now seeking a reason to reimpose a hard monetary link:call it a"gold standard"or,more aptly,a"crypto(or stablecoin)standard"

所有这些文章背后的论点都很简单,有两个方面:

i)在法定世界,人们只能相对于其它货币贬值,但我们现在已经到了这样一个地步为什么马克•卡尼认为美元不再是世界储备货币正如太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)两年前所说的,美联储应该购买黄金,让美元对美元贬值)每种货币都需要相对于货币体系之外的某个硬性指数贬值(卡尼的观点是,以美元作为储备货币锚,实际上不可能降低其价值,尽管这样做至关重要

ii)这意味着,1971年尼克松结束布雷顿森林体系(Bretton Woods)时,最后一次与黄金挂钩的制度被打破,从那时开始的史无前例的信贷扩张已经走得太远,当权派力量现在正在寻找一个理由,重新强加一种硬性货币联系:称之为"金本位",或者更恰当地说,"加密(或稳定的)标准"

Which brings us to why what Carney said,is shocking:because he not only validated what until recently the"serious experts"(i.e.the vapid,pro-establishment echo chamber with zero financial comprehension)would consider the deranged rambling of tinfoil blogs,but confirmed that-as a member of the establishment-what comes next will be catastrophic.

这就让我们明白了为什么卡尼的言论令人震惊:因为他不仅证实了直到最近"严肃专家"(即那些对金融毫无理解的索然无味、亲政府的回音室)认为锡箔纸博客疯狂漫无边际的观点,而且还证实了——作为政府机构的一员——接下来的事情将是灾难性的。

With that said,the gist of Carney's speech was largely as expected:he argued that due to the dollar's dominance of the global financial system,risks of a liquidity trap of ultra-low interest rates and weak growth are growing.In other words,after the US and dollar benefited for decades from being the world's reserve currency,that status is now hurting not only the greenback and the US economy,but the rest of the world too.

话虽如此,卡尼演讲的要旨基本上与预期相符:他认为,由于美元在全球金融体系中占据主导地位,超低利率和疲弱增长导致流动性陷阱的风险正在加大。换句话说,在美元和美元作为世界储备货币几十年来一直受益之后,这种地位如今不仅伤害了美元和美国经济,也伤害了世界其它地区。

"While the world economy is being reordered,the U.S.dollar remains as important as when Bretton Woods collapsed,"Carney said,even as emerging economies had increased their share of global activity to 60%from around 45%before the financial crisis a decade ago.

卡尼表示:"尽管世界经济正在重新调整,但美元仍然和布雷顿森林体系崩溃时一样重要。"尽管新兴经济体在全球经济活动中所占份额已从10年前金融危机爆发前的45%左右提高到了60%

And yet,EM currencies did not see a comparable increase in importance,as the dollar was still used for at least half of international trade invoices-five times more than the United States'share of world goods imports-fuelling demand for U.S.assets and exposing many countries to damaging spillovers from swings in the U.S.economy.

然而,新兴市场货币的重要性并没有相应的提高,因为至少一半的国际贸易发票仍然使用美元,这一比例是美国在世界商品进口中所占份额的5倍。新兴市场货币助长了对美国资产的需求,并使许多国家面临美国经济波动带来的破坏性溢出效应。

Commenting on possible replacements,Carney mentioned on possible fiat alternative:"the most likely candidate for true reserve currency status,the Renminbi(RMB)",which however"has a long way to go before it is ready to assume the mantle."As such,"for the Renminbi to become a truly global currency,much more is required.Moreover,history teaches that the transition to a new global reserve currency may not proceed smoothly."

在评论可能的替代品时,卡尼提到了可能的法定替代品:"最有可能成为真正储备货币地位的候选货币,人民币",然而,"在它准备承担起这个责任之前,还有很长的路要走。"因此,"要使人民币真正成为一种全球性货币,还有很多工作要做。此外,历史告诉我们,向新的全球储备货币过渡可能不会顺利进行。"

What he means here is that transitions in the currency reserve hegemon status usually take place during times of war:

他在这里的意思是,货币储备国地位的转变通常发生在战争时期:

Consider the rare example of the shift from sterling to the dollar in the early 20thCentury–a shift prompted by changes in trade and reinforced by developments in finance.The disruption wrought by the First World War allowed the US to expand its presence in markets previously dominated by European producers.Trade that was priced in sterling switched to being priced in dollars;and demand for dollar-denominated assets followed.

想想20世纪初从英镑转向美元的罕见例子吧——这种转变受到贸易变化的推动,并得到了金融发展的强化。第一次世界大战造成的混乱,使美国得以扩大其在以前由欧洲生产商主导的市场的影响力。以英镑定价的贸易转变为以美元定价的贸易,对美元计价资产的需求随之而来。

In addition,the US became a net creditor,lending to other countries in dollar-denominated bonds.Institutional change supported the role of the dollar,with the creation of the Federal Reserve System providing,for the first time,a market-maker and liquidity manager in US dollar acceptances.This was particularly helpful for promoting the use of the dollar in trade credit,reinforcing its use as a means of payment and invoicing currency.

此外,美国成为一个净债权国,以美元计价的债券向其它国家放贷。机构变革支持了美元的作用,创建了美联储系统(Federal Reserve System),首次提供了美元承兑汇率的做市商和流动性管理者。这尤其有助于促进美元在贸易信贷中的使用,加强其作为支付手段和货币发票的作用。

Not only do reserve status phase changes take place during times of war,the resulting turmoil leads to catastrophic financial consequences,to wit:"The resulting world with two competing providers of reserve currencies served to destabilize the international monetary system,and,some would argue,the lack of coordination between monetary policy makers during this time contributed to the global scarcity in liquidity and worsened the severity of the Great Depression."

储备地位阶段的变化不仅发生在战争时期,而且由此产生的混乱导致了灾难性的金融后果,即:"由此产生的世界有两个相互竞争的储备货币提供者,这起到了破坏国际货币体系稳定的作用,而且,有些人会认为,这一时期货币政策制定者之间缺乏协调,造成了全球流动性的稀缺,并使大萧条的严重性进一步恶化

Incidentally,we have previously shown these reserve currency changes with the following chart which has since graced the pages of virtually every other financial publication and website.

顺便说一句,我们之前已经用下面的图表展示了这些储备货币的变化,这些图表后来几乎出现在了所有其他金融刊物和网站的页面上。

为什么马克•卡尼认为美元不再是世界储备货币

Another shocking aspect of Carney's speech:the sense of urgency in his warning,and the extent of the social turmoil and chaos should policymakers ignore his warning.The BOE head went so far as to admit that very low equilibrium interest rates had in the past coincided with wars,financial crises and abrupt changes in the banking system.In short:we are on the verge of major socio-economic upheaval,and not because some ultra fringer blogger says so,but because one of the most respected central bankers in the world,a former Goldman partner to boot,is warning a financial apocalypse is coming.

卡尼演讲的另一个令人震惊的方面是:他警告的紧迫感,以及社会动荡和混乱的程度,决策者应该忽视他的警告。英国央行行长甚至承认,过去,非常低的均衡利率与战争、金融危机和银行体系的突然变化同时发生。简而言之:我们正处在重大社会经济动荡的边缘,不是因为一些极端保守的博客作者这样说,而是因为世界上最受尊敬的央行行长之一,高盛的前合伙人,警告说金融末日即将来临。

As some suggestions to avoid this financial armageddon,Carney pitched what for years had been considered as merely yet another"conspiracy theory":making the IMF's SDR a reserve currency,specifically saying that as a first step to reorder the world's financial system,countries could triple the resources of the IMF to$3 trillion as a better alternative to countries protecting themselves by racking up enormous piles of dollar-denominated debt.

在提出避免这场金融末日的一些建议时,卡尼提出了一个多年来一直被视为又一个"阴谋论"的观点: IMF 的特别提款权(SDR)变成一种储备货币,并特别指出,作为重新整顿世界金融体系的第一步,各国可以将 IMF 的资源增加两倍,达到3万亿美元,以更好地替代那些通过累积巨额美元计价债务来保护自己的国家。

"While such concerted efforts can improve the functioning of the current system,ultimately a multi-polar global economy requires a new IMFS(international monetary and financial system)to realize its full potential,"Carney said.

卡尼说:"尽管这种协调一致的努力可以改善当前体系的运作,但最终一个多极化的全球经济需要一个新的国际货币和金融体系来充分发挥其潜力。"

SDR aside,as noted above Carney noted that China's yuan as the most likely candidate to become a reserve currency to match the dollar,but it still had a long way to go before it was ready.As a result,the best solution from a stability standpoint would be a diversified multi-polar financial system,something that could be provided by technology.

除了特别提款权之外,正如上文中卡尼指出的,中国的人民币是最有可能成为与美元匹配的储备货币的候选货币,但是在它准备好之前还有很长的路要走。因此,从稳定的角度来看,最好的解决方案是建立一个多样化的多极金融体系,这种体系可以通过技术来提供。

Enter Facebook,whose upstart"stablecoin"Libra was the most high-profile proposed digital currency to date according to Carney,but it faced a host of fundamental issues that it had yet to address."As a consequence,it is an open question whether such a new Synthetic Hegemonic Currency(SHC)would be best provided by the public sector,perhaps through a network of central bank digital currencies,"the BOE head said.

进入 Facebook。据卡尼称,Facebook 的新贵"stablecoin"Libra 是迄今为止最引人注目的数字货币提案,但它面临着一系列尚未解决的根本性问题。"因此,这种新的综合霸权货币(SHC)是否最好由公共部门提供,也许是通过央行数字货币网络提供,是一个悬而未决的问题,"英国央行行长表示。

Such a system could dampen the"domineering influence"of the U.S.dollar on global trade.

这样的体系可能会抑制美元对全球贸易的"霸道影响"

But that doesn't fully answer the question why does Carney think that after nearly a century of betting as the world's reserve currency,the dollar can't be the global reserve any more.Conveniently,that is what CNBC's Steve Liesman asked Mark Carney during an interview following his luncheon speech.This is what Carney said:

但这并没有完全回答为什么卡尼认为,在押注美元作为世界储备货币近一个世纪之后,美元不再是全球储备货币。顺便说一句,这是 CNBC 的史蒂夫·里斯曼在马克·卡尼午餐会演讲后的一次采访中问他的。卡尼是这么说的:

MARK CARNEY:The dollar is the global currency,we know that.The challenge is that the U.S.share of the global economy has been reducing.The dollar share of payments-not just financial assets but payments,a lot of payments of countries that have nothing to do with the U.S.make payments in dollars.And what happens in situations like we're in tonight,where the U.S.to its credit is relatively strong,doing better.The fed has been doing the right thing.They have adjusted policy,they have tightened policy as it was strengthening.Now they're making–they're doing the right thing,but they adjusted and it is relatively strong.That means the rest of the world policy is tighter than it needs to be,and that feeds back on the U.S.economy in a way that ultimately slows this economy.And it leads to a substandard outcome.And in a world where you only have limited policy space,it is a dangerous place to be.So,the trade issues we're talking about are reinforced by the structure of the monetary system....

马克·卡尼:我们知道,美元是全球货币。挑战在于美国在全球经济中所占的份额一直在减少。美元在支付中所占的份额——不仅仅是金融资产,还有支付,许多与美国无关的国家以美元支付。在我们今晚这样的情况下,美国的表现相对强劲,做得更好。美联储一直在做正确的事情。他们已经调整了政策,他们已经收紧了正在加强的政策。现在他们正在——他们正在做正确的事情,但是他们适应了,而且相对强大。这意味着世界其他国家的政策比实际需要的更加紧缩,这种紧缩反过来影响了美国经济,最终导致美国经济放缓。这会导致一个低于标准的结果。在一个政策空间有限的世界里,这是一个危险的地方。因此,我们正在谈论的贸易问题被货币体系的结构所强化..

Now the issue is you don't just jump to something new overnight.And what we want in a multi polar world,I think we would agree we have European engine,we've got the Chinese engine,we've got the U.S.engine of this economy,a multi polar world,you need a multi polar currency.The question is how you get there?And I laid out ideas of how you would get there.

现在的问题是,你不能一夜之间就跳到一些新的东西上。在一个多极化的世界里,我们想要的是,我想我们会同意我们有欧洲的引擎,我们有中国的引擎,我们有美国的经济引擎,一个多极化的世界,你需要一个多极化的货币。问题是你如何到达那里?我提出了如何实现这一目标的想法。

STEVE LIESMAN:The bottom line is all of the pressure on the difference in growth around the world would not fall on the dollar exchange rate...It would be spread out if it was a global basket of currency is what you are saying.

史蒂夫·利斯曼:底线是,全球经济增长差异的所有压力都不会落在美元汇率上......如果它是一个全球性的一篮子货币,这就是你所说的。

MARK CARNEY:It would be spread out as a global basket of currencies.It is better for the system as a whole.It raises that equilibrium level of interest rates.

马克·卡尼:它将作为一个全球货币篮子分散开来。这对整个体系来说是更好的。它提高了利率的均衡水平。

And just like that,the first shot across the bow of the dollar's reserve status was fired by none other than one of the world's most respected bankers.Which means that going forward pay especially close attention to how policymakers approach and interpret Trump's chaotic,unconventional statements:once they begin to emphasize just how destabilizing for the dollar Trump's unorthodox style is,that will be the beginning of the end for the dollar.That's when gold and cryptos will go parabolic.

就这样,这位全球最受尊敬的银行家向美元的储备地位发出了第一声警告。这意味着,今后要特别密切关注政策制定者如何处理和解读特朗普的混乱、非传统的声明:一旦他们开始强调特朗普的非传统风格对美元有多么不稳定,那将是美元终结的开始。到那时黄金和密码就会变成抛物线。

While Carney was not certain what would and should replace the dollar in this brave new world,he was adamant that doing nothing would lead to catastrophe:

尽管卡尼不确定在这个美丽的新世界里,什么东西会、也应该取代美元,但他坚信,不采取任何行动都会导致灾难:

"Even a passing acquaintance with monetary history suggests that this centre won't hold.We need to recognise the short,medium and long term challenges this system creates for the institutional frameworks and conduct of monetary policy across the world.Given the experience of the past five years,I will close by adding urgency to Ben Bernanke's challenge.Let's end the malign neglect of the IMFS and build a system worthy of the diverse,multipolar global economy that is emerging."

"即使只是对货币史略知一二,也会表明,这种中心不会持续下去。我们需要认识到这个体系为全球货币政策的制度框架和行为带来的短期、中期和长期挑战。鉴于过去五年的经验,在结束发言时,我将为本伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的挑战增添紧迫感。让我们结束对国际货币基金组织的恶意忽视,建立一个适应正在出现的多元化、多极化全球经济的体系。"

In our first take of Carney's suggestion,we said that was an"Unprecedented,Shocking Proposal."Without belaboring this point,we leave the final word to Alt-Market's Brandon Smith who had some very apt parting words:

在我们第一次采纳卡尼的建议时,我们说这是一个"前所未有的、令人震惊的建议"我们不再赘述这一点,最后让 Alt-Market 的布兰登·史密斯说几句非常贴切的临别赠言:

[T]he central banks,led by the BIS and IMF,know EXACTLY what they are doing.I have been warning for years about the globalist plan to undermine the monetary stability of nation states and then replace the dollar itself with a new world reserve alternative for years.Carney is not the first elitist to suggest this outcome.Mohamed El Erian,Christine Lagarde,Putin and the Kremlin,not to mention the Chinese central bank have ALL suggested that a new one world currency is coming to replace the dollar.Largarde even admitted that plans are in motion for a crypto-based global currency model.I outlined this end game in multiple articles,a few of which can be read HERE,HERE,and HERE.Carney's statement is not so shocking;it was actually quite predictable.

以国际清算银行和国际货币基金组织为首的中央银行清楚地知道他们在做什么。多年来,我一直在警告全球主义者的计划,即破坏民族国家的货币稳定,然后用新的世界储备替代品取代美元本身。卡尼并不是第一个提出这种结果的精英主义者。克里斯蒂娜·拉加德,普京和克里姆林宫,更不用说中国的中央银行都暗示一种新的世界货币正在取代美元。拉嘉德甚至承认,一个基于加密技术的全球货币模型的计划正在进行中。我在多篇文章中概述了这种结束游戏,其中一些文章可以在这里、这里和这里阅读。卡尼的声明并不那么令人震惊,事实上,这是完全可以预见的。

The closer we get to the global economic reset,the more central bankers are going to publicly push the idea of a cashless society and a one world currency system.

我们离全球经济复苏越近,越多的央行行长将公开推行无现金社会和一个世界货币体系的理念。

Everything the alternative media has warned about for years;all the outcomes other people have called"conspiracy theory",will soon be treated as"common knowledge"...

替代媒体多年来警告的一切,其他人称之为"阴谋论"的所有结果,将很快被视为"常识".....

来源:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-24/why-mark-carney-thinks-dollar-can-no-longer-be-worlds-reserve-currency

zhunbeizhuanbian
  • 本文由 发表于 2019年8月26日11:15:47
  • 除非特殊声明,本站文章均来自网络,转载请务必保留本文链接