何时才是活着的好时机

2022年8月16日08:55:30新人阅读何时才是活着的好时机已关闭评论4204字数 8895阅读29分39秒阅读模式
何时才是活着的好时机

A few things going on in the world today:

当今世界正在发生的一些事情:

  • War in Ukraine 乌克兰战争
  • Global pandemic 全球大流行
  • Political uncertainty 政治不确定性
  • Crashing financial markets 金融市场崩溃
  • $7 gas 7美元汽油
  • Layoffs 裁员
  • Inflation 通货膨胀

And we are only two years into this century's "Roaring 20s." There is so much chaos in the world today that it's easy to say "life sucks, the world sucks, and everything sucks."

我们进入本世纪“咆哮的20年代”只有两年时间今天的世界如此混乱,人们很容易说“生活糟透了,世界糟透了,一切都糟透了。”

Today, I am asking you to consider a different, more optimistic take: Life is good. In fact, it isn't just good. Life is the best that it has ever been.

今天,我要求你们考虑一个不同的,更乐观的看法: 生活是美好的。事实上,不仅仅是好。生活是最美好的。

Turn Back the Clock

让时光倒流

Death 死亡

If we were living in Alexandria in year 0, Kyoto during the samurai era, Stockholm in 1655, or Paris during Napoleon's reign, each of us would have had a coin flip's chance of surviving adolescence. Maybe we wouldn't have survived our own births. Maybe we would have fallen victim to famine, sickness, war, infection, labor, or an abundance of other adverse conditions. 

如果我们生活在0年代的亚历山大,武士时代的京都,1655年的斯德哥尔摩,或者拿破仑统治的巴黎,我们每个人都会有一个抛硬币的机会来度过青春期。也许我们连自己的出生都活不下来。也许我们会成为饥荒、疾病、战争、传染病、劳动力或其他大量不利条件的牺牲品。

From 500 BC to 1900 AD, death reigned supreme. The world's average youth mortality rate, defined as death before age 15, was 46.7%. Additionally, one-quarter of all infants didn't reach their first birthdays.

从公元前500年到公元1900年,死亡统治一切。世界平均青年死亡率(定义为15岁以前死亡)为46.7% 。此外,四分之一的婴儿没有到达他们的第一个生日。

For 2400 years, your odds of reaching your 15th birthday were reduced to the spin of a roulette wheel. But over the last century, everything changed.

2400年来,你活到15岁生日的几率就像轮盘赌一样渺茫。但在上个世纪,一切都变了。

By 1950, the global youth mortality rate had nearly been cut in half to 27%. In 2017, we hit 4.6%. Somalia, which currently boasts the world's highest youth mortality rate at 14.8%, sits at just 1/3 of the global average from ~100 years earlier.

到1950年,全球青年死亡率几乎下降了一半,降至27% 。2017年,我们达到了4.6% 。索马里是目前世界上青年死亡率最高的国家,为14.8% ,仅为100年前全球平均水平的三分之一。

In 2022, the death of a child is a tragic occurrence. In 1822, it was a normal part of daily life. We can't comprehend a world where early deaths were so common, yet that was the real world for millennia.

在2022年,一个孩子的死亡是一个悲剧性的事件。在1822年,这是日常生活的一部分。我们无法理解一个早逝如此普遍的世界,然而那却是千年以来的真实世界。

Static mortality rates for centuries, then a 90% decline in just a few generations. Insane progress.

几个世纪的静态死亡率,然后几代人就下降了90% ,疯狂的进步。

Poverty 贫穷

In 1820, with a global population of 1.08B, 964.93M people lived in extreme poverty (living on less than $1.90 per day in 2015, adjusted for inflation). In 2015, with a global population of 7.35B, 733.48M people lived in extreme poverty. While the world's population increased by 6.3B, the number of people living in extreme poverty decreased by 230M.

1820年,全球人口为108亿,9.6493亿人生活在极端贫困之中(2015年,经通货膨胀调整后,每天生活费不足1.90美元)。2015年,全球人口为7.35亿,有7.3348亿人生活在极端贫困之中。虽然世界人口增加了6.3亿,但生活在极端贫困中的人数却减少了2.3亿。

何时才是活着的好时机

Spreadsheet built on Rows 基于行的电子表格

We often focus on wealth inequality in the US. And it's true, the wealth gap is growing. But what gets missed in this wealth gap comparison is just how much better off poor people are now than at any point in the past.

我们经常关注美国的财富不平等问题。的确,贫富差距正在扩大。但是,在这种贫富差距对比中,我们忽略了一点: 与过去任何时候相比,穷人现在的境况要好得多。

You can be "poor" in the United States today and have a cellphone, an internet connection, food, and shelter. Those living in government housing today have a higher standard of living than the upper class did in year 1900. JD Rockefeller, the richest man in modern history, didn't even have air conditioning.

在今天的美国,你可以是“穷人”,拥有手机、互联网连接、食物和住所。今天生活在政府住房中的人们的生活水平比1900年的上层阶级还要高。JD 洛克菲勒,现代史上最富有的人,甚至没有空气调节。

As recently as 1981 (!!!) 42% of the world lived in extreme poverty. Today, that number is just 9%. In the last generation, global extreme poverty has dropped by 84%.

就在1981年42% 的世界人口生活在极端贫困之中。今天,这个数字只有9% 。在过去的一代人中,全球极端贫困人口减少了84% 。

A variable highly correlated to poverty? Literacy.

与贫困高度相关的一个变量? 识字率。

Literacy 读写能力

Even centuries after the advent of the printing press, books were still reserved for the elites. Written knowledge passed down from generation to generation could only be accessed by a select few, with the rest of the populace relying on word-of-mouth communication. Letters couldn't be written. Notes couldn't be taken. Information couldn't be recorded, unless you were born into the right house.

甚至在印刷机出现几个世纪之后,书籍仍然是为精英们保留的。代代相传的书面知识只有少数人能够获得,其余的人则依靠口口相传。不能写信。不能做笔记。信息无法被记录,除非你出生在正确的家庭。

In year 1800, just 12% of the world's population was literate.

在1800年,只有12% 的世界人口是识字的。

In year 1900, just 21% of the world's population was literate.

在1900年,只有21% 的世界人口是识字的。

In year 2016, an astounding 86% of the world's population was literate.

在2016年,令人震惊的是全世界有86% 的人口是识字的。

何时才是活着的好时机

Spreadsheet built on Rows 基于行的电子表格

Perspective

观点

If you were born in Paris, France in 1820, you had a 56% chance of making it to your 15th birthday. Assuming you survived, there was a 38% chance that you knew how to read and write. And even if you were alive and literate, (a combination with just a 21% chance of happening), you had a 50/50 shot of being in extreme poverty.

如果你1820年出生在法国巴黎,你有56% 的机会活到15岁生日。假设你活下来了,有38% 的可能你知道怎么读和写。即使你还活着并且有文化(这种情况发生的几率只有21%) ,你也有50% 的几率处于极度贫困之中。

But let's say that you beat the odds. You were a living, literate Parisian with a modest income. Welcome to the good life.

但假设你战胜了困难。你是一个活生生的有文化的巴黎人,收入不高。欢迎来到美好生活。

You would have spent your entire adulthood in a chaotic, politically unstable post-Napoleon France. Your grandchildren would have fought in WW1, and their children would have fought in WW2.

你的整个成年生活都会在一个混乱,政治不稳定的后拿破仑时代的法国度过。你的孙子孙女会参加第一次世界大战,他们的孩子也会参加第二次世界大战。

The reward for overcoming all of life's obstacles was two generations of war that tore your country apart.

克服生活中所有障碍的回报就是两代人的战争使你的国家四分五裂。

But at least gas wasn't $7 per gallon.

但至少油价不是每加仑7美元。

It's hard to internalize just how good we have it because our own life experiences are our homeostasis, our base point for comparison. We read about the hardships of history, but we don't experience them. We don't feel them. How could we? Decades of war, sickness, and hardship have been reduced to paragraphs and documentaries.

我们很难内化自己的生活有多美好,因为我们自己的生活经历就是我们的内稳态,我们比较的基点。我们读到了历史的艰辛,但我们没有经历过。我们感觉不到。怎么可能?几十年的战争、疾病和苦难已经减少到段落和纪录片。

But those wars, sicknesses, and hardships were all-too-real for those who lived through them.

但是对于那些经历过战争、疾病和苦难的人来说,这些都太真实了。

The Plague of Justinian wiped out 40% of Constantinople's population in four months. The Russian Plague killed 33% of Moscow's population in a single season, and 75% of the remaining populace fled.

查士丁尼大瘟疫在四个月内消灭了君士坦丁堡40% 的人口。俄罗斯瘟疫在一个季节内杀死了莫斯科33% 的人口,剩下的人口中有75% 逃走了。

The Covid-19 pandemic has been bad, no doubt. But can you imagine a world with 4M New York City deaths in just four months? Where millions of others flee, fearing for their lives?

毫无疑问,2019冠状病毒疾病流行病已经很严重了。但是你能想象一个四个月内纽约市死亡400万人的世界吗?数以百万计的人因为担心自己的生命安全而逃离那里?

Because that happened. And it happened more than once.

因为这种事发生过,而且不止一次。

These accounts feel like faraway stories from an era in the distant past. Lost somewhere between fact and fantasy. But they were just as real to the past generations as our conflicts are to us today.

这些叙述感觉像是遥远过去的一个时代的故事。迷失在现实和幻想之间。但它们对过去几代人来说是真实的,就像我们今天的冲突对我们来说一样。

A Million Little Miracles

一百万个小奇迹

History is nothing if not a series of mankind conquering nature's limitations.

历史如果不是一系列人类征服自然界的局限性,那就什么也不是。

The printing press allowed our knowledge to conquer death.

印刷机使我们的知识战胜了死亡。

Penicillin allowed our bodies to conquer infection.

青霉素让我们的身体战胜了感染。

Fertilizers allowed our farms to conquer famine.

肥料使我们的农场战胜了饥荒。

Steam engines allowed our ships to conquer windless seas.

蒸汽机使我们的船能够征服无风的海洋。

Airplanes allowed us to conquer gravity and distant travel.

飞机使我们能够克服重力和远距离旅行。

Phones allowed us to conquer long-distance communication.

手机让我们征服了远距离通讯。

Computers allowed us to conquer the spatial limitations of data storage.

计算机使我们能够克服数据存储的空间限制。

Over time, these little miracles, these little breakthroughs, they compounded. Each generation built from the shoulders of their predecessors, beginning life on third base thanks to a triple hit by the generation before.

随着时间的推移,这些小奇迹,这些小突破,他们复合。每一代人都是在前辈的肩膀上建立起来的,由于前辈的三连击,他们在三垒上开始了自己的生活。

And innovation has accelerated as a result.

创新因此而加速。

Every single thing that we take for granted today would be nothing short of a miracle to anyone who lived just 100 years ago.

对于生活在100年前的人来说,我们今天认为理所当然的每一件事都是一个奇迹。

Supermarkets with fresh selections of every food imaginable are magic. Planes that will transport you anywhere in the world in under a day are magic. Clean water is magic. Antibiotics are magic. Cell phones are magic. Plumbing systems are magic. Anesthesia is magic. The fact that you can read this blog from New York, to New Delhi, to New Zealand is magic.

能想到的每种食物都有新鲜选择的超级市场是神奇的。能在一天之内把你送到世界任何地方的飞机都是神奇的。干净的水是神奇的。抗生素是魔法。手机真神奇。管道系统很神奇。麻醉是魔法。事实上,你可以从纽约,新德里,新西兰阅读这个博客是魔术。

But to us, none of this is magic. To us, the real magic is that our ancestors survived with so much less.

但对我们来说,这些都不是魔法。对我们来说,真正的魔力在于我们的祖先生存下来的时间要少得多。

Inflation sucks. Covid sucks. War sucks. High gas prices suck.

通货膨胀糟透了,冠状病毒疾病糟透了,战争糟透了,高油价糟透了。

But we live in a world where you can Facetime your best friend from another country, and they can fly to visit you the next day. You can instantly communicate with anyone who has an internet connection. The poorest people in first-world countries still have food, water, shelter, and access to healthcare, while 200 years ago a large gash on your leg was a death sentence.

但是我们生活在这样一个世界里,你可以和你来自另一个国家的最好的朋友视频,他们可以在第二天飞过来看你。你可以即时与任何有互联网连接的人沟通。第一世界国家最贫穷的人仍然有食物、水、住所和医疗保健,而200年前,你腿上的一个大伤口就是死刑判决。

We struggle with purpose, our ancestors struggled with survival.

我们为目标而奋斗,我们的祖先为生存而奋斗。

Asking "What do I want to do with my life?" is a privilege, considering the primary concern for everyone before us was "How do I stay alive?" 

问“我这辈子想做什么?”是一种特权,考虑到在我们之前的每个人最关心的问题是“我怎样才能活下去?”

So while we tweet, text, and opine about the disastrous state of the world today, it is important to remember that the depths of our modern hells would be the pinnacles of our ancestors' lives. Our problems are a privilege.

因此,当我们发推特、发短信、发表关于当今世界灾难性状况的观点时,重要的是要记住,我们现代地狱的深处将是我们祖先生活的顶峰。我们的问题是一种特权。

- Jack 杰克

来源:https://www.youngmoney.co/p/time-alive

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  • 本文由 发表于 2022年8月16日08:55:30
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