普京将西方国家从克里姆林宫清除

2020年1月18日11:10:57普京将西方国家从克里姆林宫清除已关闭评论 913 11938字阅读39分47秒
摘要

俄罗斯政府辞职了。前一天,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京发表了国情咨文讲话,概述了一系列宪法改革;普京的计划是将总统的部分压倒性权力移交给立法机构和国务院,同时加强宪法法院对立法进行检查的能力。

01/17/2020-05:00

It came as the biggest shock of the day on Wednesday.The Russian government resigned.The day before President Vladimir Putin gave his State of the Nation address and outlined a slate of constitutional changes.

这是周三当天最令人震惊的消息。俄罗斯政府辞职了。前一天,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京发表了国情咨文讲话,概述了一系列宪法改革。


That speech prompted an overhaul of Russia's government.

那次演讲促使俄罗斯政府进行了全面改革。

Putin's plan is to devolve some of the President's overwhelming power to the legislature and the State Council,while beefing up the Constitutional Court's ability to provide checks on legislation.

普京的计划是将总统的部分压倒性权力移交给立法机构和国务院,同时加强宪法法院对立法进行检查的能力。

From TASS:

来自塔斯社:

In Wednesday's State of the Nation Address,Putin put forward a number of initiatives changing the framework of power structures at all levels,from municipal authorities to the president.The initiatives particularly stipulate that the powers of the legislative and judicial branches,including the Constitutional Court,will be expanded.The president also proposed to expand the role of the Russian State Council.Putin suggested giving the State Duma(the lower house of parliament)the right to approve the appointment of the country's prime minister,deputy prime ministers and ministers.

在周三的国情咨文中,普京提出了一系列改变各级权力结构框架的倡议,从市政当局到总统。这些倡议特别规定扩大包括宪法法院在内的立法和司法部门的权力。总统还提议扩大俄罗斯国务院的作用。普京建议给予国家杜马(议会下院)批准任命该国总理、副总理和部长的权力。

The bigger shock was that in response to this Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev dissolved the current government willingly and resigned as Prime Minister.

更令人震惊的是,作为对这位总理的回应,梅德韦杰夫自愿解散了现任政府,并辞去了总理职务。

Within hours Putin recommended Federal Tax Service chief,Mikhail Mishustin as Prime Minister.The State Duma approved Putin's recommendation and Mishustin was sworn in by Putin all within a day.

几个小时后,普京推荐联邦税务局局长米哈伊尔·米什斯廷为总理。国家杜马批准了普京的建议,Mishustin 在一天之内宣誓就职。

While this came on suddenly it also shouldn't be a surprise.These changes have been discussed for months leading up to Putin's speech.And it's been clear for the past few years that Putin has been engaged in the second phase of his long-term plan to first rebuild and then remake Russia during his time in office.

虽然这是突然发生的,但也不应该感到惊讶。在普京发表演讲之前,这些变化已经讨论了好几个月。在过去的几年里,普京已经开始了他长期计划的第二阶段,首先是重建,然后在他的任期内重建俄罗斯。

The first phase was rescuing Russia from economic,societal and demographic collapse.It was in serious danger of this when Putin took over from Boris Yeltsin.

第一阶段是将俄罗斯从经济、社会和人口的崩溃中拯救出来。当普京从鲍里斯·叶利钦手中接过权力时,俄罗斯正处于严重的危险之中。

It meant regaining control over strategic state resources,rebuilding Russia's economy and defense,stabilizing its population,getting some semblance of political control within the Kremlin and bringing hope back to a country in desperate need of it.

这意味着重新获得对国家战略资源的控制权,重建俄罗斯的经济和国防,稳定其人口,在克里姆林宫内获得一些表面上的政治控制权,并为一个迫切需要它的国家带来希望。

Hostile analysts,both domestic and foreign,criticized Putin constantly for his tactics.Russia's reliance on its base commodities sectors to revive its economy was seen as a structural weakness.But,an honest assessment of the situation begs the question,"How else was Putin going to back Russia away from the edge of that abyss?"

国内外的敌对分析人士不断批评普京的策略。俄罗斯依赖其基础大宗商品行业来重振其经济,这被视为一种结构性弱点。但是,对形势的真实评估回避了这样一个问题:"除此之外,普京还会如何支持俄罗斯远离那个深渊的边缘?"

These same experts never seem to have an answer.

这些专家似乎从未有过答案。

And when those critics were able to answer,since they were people connected to monied interests in the West who Putin stymied from continuing to loot Russia's natural wealth,their answer was usually to keep doing that.

当这些批评者能够回答这个问题时,因为他们与西方的金钱利益有关,而普京阻止他们继续掠夺俄罗斯的自然财富,他们的回答通常是继续这样做。

Don't kid yourself,most of the so-called Russia experts out there are deeply back to Wall St.through one William Browder and his partner-in-crime Mikhail Khordokovsky.

别自欺欺人了,大多数所谓的俄罗斯专家都是通过威廉·布劳德和他的犯罪同伙米哈伊尔·霍多科夫斯基回到华尔街的。

Nearly all of them in the U.S.Senate are severely compromised or just garden variety neocons still hell-bent on subjugating Russia to their hegemonic plans.

在美国参议院,几乎所有的新保守主义者都严重妥协,或者只是一些普通的新保守主义者,仍然执意要让俄罗斯屈从于他们的霸权计划。

Their voices should be discounted heavily since they are the same criminals actively destroying U.S.and European politics today.

他们的声音应该大打折扣,因为他们与今天正在积极破坏美国和欧洲政治的罪犯是同一批人。

In the West these events were spun to suggest Putin is consolidating power.The initial reports were that he would remove the restraint on Presidential service of two consecutive terms.And that this would pave the way to his staying in office after his current term expires in 2024.

在西方,这些事件都是在暗示普京正在巩固权力。最初的报告是,他将取消对连续两届总统任期的限制。这将为他在2024年任期结束后继续留任铺平道路。

That,as always when regarding Russia,is the opposite of the truth.Putin's recommendation is to remove the word"consecutive"from the Constitution making it clear that a President can only ever serve two terms.Moreover,that president will have had to have lived in Russia for the previous 25 years.

一如既往,谈到俄罗斯,这是与事实相反的。普京的建议是从宪法中删除"连续"一词,明确规定总统只能连任两届。此外,这位总统此前必须在俄罗斯生活了25年。

No one will be allowed to rule Russia like he has after he departs the office.Because Putin understands that the Russian presidency under the current constitution is far too powerful and leaves the country vulnerable to a man who isn't a patriot being corrupted by that power.

任何人都不会像他离任后那样被允许统治俄罗斯。因为普京明白,根据现行宪法,俄罗斯总统的权力过于强大,让这个国家在一个不是爱国者的人被权力腐蚀的情况下变得脆弱。

There are a number of issues that most commentators and analysts in the West do not understand about Putin.Their insistence on presenting Putin only in the worst possible terms is tired and nonsensical to anyone who spends even a cursory amount of time studying him.

西方的大多数评论人士和分析人士对普京有许多不了解的地方。他们坚持只用最糟糕的词汇来描述普京,对于那些花费大量时间研究普京的人来说,这是令人厌烦和荒谬的。

These events of the past couple of days in Russia are the end result of years of work on Putin's part to purge the Russian government and the Kremlin of what The Saker calls The Atlanticist Fifth Column.

过去几天在俄罗斯发生的这些事件,是普京多年来清洗俄罗斯政府和克里姆林宫的工作的最终结果,萨克尔称之为大西洋主义者第五纵队。

And they have been dug in like ticks in a corrupt bureaucracy that has taken Putin the better part of twenty years to tame.

它们就像腐败的官僚机构中的虱子一样被埋藏起来,普京花了二十年的时间才驯服了它们。

It's been a long and difficult road that even I only understand the surface details of.But it's clear that beginning in 2012 or so,Putin began making the shift towards the next phase of Russia's strategic comeback.

这是一条漫长而艰难的道路,即使是我也只能理解其表面的细节。但很明显,从2012年左右开始,普京开始转向俄罗斯下一阶段的战略回归。

And that second phase is about taking a stable Russia and elevating its institutions to a more sustainable model.

第二阶段是建立一个稳定的俄罗斯,将其机构提升到一个更可持续的模式。

Once birth rates improved and demographic collapse was averted,the next thing to do was to reform an economy rightly criticized for being too heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues.

一旦出生率得到改善,人口结构的崩溃得以避免,接下来要做的事情就是改革一个因过度依赖石油和天然气收入而受到批评的经济体。

And that is a much tougher task.

这是一项艰巨得多的任务。

It meant getting control over the Russian central bank and the financial sector.Putin was given that opportunity during the downturn in oil prices in 2014.

这意味着控制俄罗斯中央银行和金融部门。普京在2014年油价低迷期间得到了这个机会。

Using the crisis as an opportunity Putin began the decoupling of Russia's economy from the West.During the early boom years of his Presidency oil revenue strengthened both the Russian state coffers and the so-called oligarchs who Putin was actively fighting for control.

普京利用这次危机作为契机,开始实现俄罗斯经济与西方的脱钩。在他总统任期的早期繁荣时期,石油收入增强了俄罗斯国库和普京积极争夺控制权的所谓寡头。

He warned the CEO's of Gazprom,Rosneft and Sberbank that they were too heavily exposed to the U.S.dollar this way in the years leading up to the crash in oil prices in 2014-16.

他警告俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)、俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)和俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行(Sberbank)的首席执行官,在2014-16年油价暴跌之前的几年里,他们对美元的风险敞口过大。

And when the U.S.sanctioned Russia in 2014 over the reunification with Crimea these firms all had to come to Putin for a bailout.Their dollar-denominated debt was swapped out for euro and ruble debt through the Bank of Russia and he instructed the central bank to allow the ruble to fall,to stop defending it.

当美国在2014年因为与克里米亚的统一而对俄罗斯进行制裁时,这些公司都不得不向普京寻求援助。通过俄罗斯央行,他们以美元计价的债务被换成了欧元和卢布债务,他指示俄罗斯央行允许卢布贬值,停止捍卫卢布。

Taking the inflationary hit was dangerous but necessary if Russia was to become a truly independent economic force.

承受通胀的打击是危险的,但如果俄罗斯要成为一个真正独立的经济力量,这是必要的。

Since then it's been a tug of war with the IMF-trained bureaucracy within the Bank of Russia to set monetary policy in accordance with Russia's needs not what the international community demanded.

从那时起,俄罗斯央行内部的官僚机构与货币基金组织展开了一场拉锯战,目的是根据俄罗斯的需要而不是国际社会的要求来制定货币政策。

That strong Presidency was a huge boon.But,now that the job is mostly done,it can be an albatross.

这个强大的总统职位是一个巨大的恩惠。但是,现在这项工作已经基本完成了,这可能成为一个沉重的负担。

Putin understands that a Russia flush with too much oil money is a Russia ruled by that money and becomes lazy because of that money.Contrary to popular opinion,Putin doesn't want to see oil prices back near$100 per barrel.

普京明白,一个拥有过多石油收入的俄罗斯就是一个被这些钱统治的俄罗斯,因为这些钱,他变得懒惰起来。与普遍观点相反,普京不希望看到油价回到每桶接近100美元的水平。

Because Russia's comparative advantage in oil and gas is so high relative to everyone else on the world stage and to other domestic industries that money retards innovation and investment in new technologies and a broadening of the Russian domestic economy.

因为俄罗斯在石油和天然气方面的比较优势相对于世界舞台上的其他国家和其他国内产业来说是如此之高,以至于金钱阻碍了创新和对新技术的投资,阻碍了俄罗斯国内经济的扩张。

And this has been Putin's focus for a while now.Oil and gas are geostrategic assets used to shore up Russia's position as a regional power,building connections with its new partners while opening up new markets for Russian businesses.

这一直是普京关注的焦点。石油和天然气是地缘战略资产,用于巩固俄罗斯作为地区强国的地位,与新合作伙伴建立联系,同时为俄罗斯企业开拓新市场。

But it isn't the end of the Russian story of the future,rather the beginning.

但这不是俄罗斯未来故事的结局,而是开始。

And the slow privatization of those industries is happening,with companies like Gazprom and Rosneft selling off excess treasury shares to raise capital and put a larger share of them into public hands.

这些行业的缓慢私有化正在发生,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司和俄罗斯石油公司等公司出售多余的国库股来筹集资金,并将其中更大的份额交到公众手中。

Again,this is all part of the next stage of Russia's development and democratizing some of the President's power has to happen if Russia is going to survive him leaving the stage.

同样,这也是俄罗斯下一阶段发展的一部分,如果俄罗斯想要在总统下台后继续生存下去,就必须实现总统权力的民主化。

Because it is one thing to have a man of uncommon ability and patriotism wielding that power responsibly.It's another to believe Russia can get another man like Putin to take his place.

因为有一个具有非凡能力和爱国精神的人负责任地行使这种权力是一回事。相信俄罗斯可以让另一个像普京一样的人来取代他的位置就是另一回事了。

So,Putin is again showing his foresight and prudence in pushing for these changes now.It shows that he feels comfortable that this new structure will insulate Russia from external threats while strengthening the domestic political scene.

因此,普京现在在推动这些变革方面又一次显示出了他的远见和审慎。这表明,他认为这种新结构将使俄罗斯免受外部威胁,同时加强国内政治舞台。

Gilbert Doctorow has an excellent early reaction to this dramatic turn by Putin which I encourage everyone to read in full.The subtle point he makes is:

吉尔伯特·多克托罗(Gilbert Doctorow)对普京的这一戏剧性转变有着出色的早期反应,我鼓励大家全面阅读这篇文章。他提出的微妙观点是:

To understand what comes next,you have to take into account a vitally important statement which Putin made a few moments before he set out his proposed constitutional reforms.He told his audience that his experience meeting with the leaders of the various Duma parties at regular intervals every few weeks showed that all were deeply patriotic and working for the good of the country.Accordingly,he said that all Duma parties should participate in the formation of the cabinet.

要了解接下来会发生什么,你必须考虑到普京在提出宪法改革提案前几分钟发表的一项至关重要的声明。他告诉听众,他与杜马各党派领导人每隔几周定期举行会晤的经历表明,他们都非常爱国,为国家的利益而努力。因此,他表示,所有杜马党派都应参与组阁。

And so,we are likely to see in the coming days that candidates for a number of federal ministries in the new,post-Medvedev cabinet will be drawn precisely from parties other than United Russia.In effect,without introducing the word"coalition"into his vocabulary,Vladimir Putin has set the stage for the creation of a grand coalition to succeed the rule of one party,United Russia,over which Dimitri Medvedev was the nominal chairman.

因此,我们可能在未来几天看到,在新的后梅德韦杰夫内阁中,一些联邦部委的候选人将完全来自统一俄罗斯党以外的政党。实际上,弗拉基米尔·普京并没有在他的词汇表中提到联合政府这个词,他已经为建立一个大联合政府做好了准备,这个大联合政府将继承统一俄罗斯党的统治,统一俄罗斯党名义上的主席是德米特里·梅德韦杰夫。

The end result of this move to devolve the cabinet appointments to the whole of the Duma is to ensure that a strong President which Putin believes is best for Russia is tempered by a cabinet drawn from the whole of the electorate,including the Prime Minister.

这一将内阁任命权下放到整个杜马的举措的最终结果,是确保一个普京认为对俄罗斯最有利的强势总统,由包括总理在内的全体选民组成的内阁来调和。

That neither opens the door to dysfunctional European parliamentary systems nor closes it from a strong President leading Russia during crisis periods.

这既不会打开欧洲议会体系功能失调的大门,也不会关闭一位在危机时期领导俄罗斯的强有力总统的大门。

Once the amendments to the constitution are finalized Putin will put the whole package to a public vote.

一旦宪法修正案最终确定,普京将对整个方案进行公开投票。

This is the early stage of this much-needed overhaul of Russia's constitutional order and the neocons in the West are likely stunned into silence knowing that they can no longer just wait Putin out and sink their hooks into his most likely successor.

这是俄罗斯宪法秩序亟需改革的早期阶段,西方的新保守主义者可能已经目瞪口呆,陷入沉默,因为他们知道,他们不能再等着普京下台,然后勾住他最有可能的继任者。

Sometimes the most important changes occur right under our noses,right out in the open.Contrast that with the skullduggery and open hostility of the political circus in D.C.and you can which direction the two countries are headed.

有时候最重要的变化就发生在我们眼皮底下,公开地发生。与华盛顿特区的欺诈和公开的敌意相比,你可以知道这两个国家正朝着哪个方向前进。

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来源:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putins-now-purged-west-kremlin

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