All things occur in cycles,ebbing and flowing as time goes by.In the west,we often think of things progressing in a linear way,but nature teaches us that this is not the case.Darkness and light,the seasons,the life cycles of plants and animals–all these things rise and fall periodically.This cyclical motion affects every area of our lives.Our relationships,our family life and our career all follow cycles,and so do the lives of the institutions,companies and organizations to which we belong.Even countries and empires rise and fall in cycles.
所有的事情都是循环发生的，随着时间的流逝而消退和流动。在西方，我们经常认为事情是以线性的方式发展的，但是大自然告诉我们事实并非如此。黑暗和光明，季节，植物和动物的生命周期——所有这些东西周期性地上升和下降。这种周期性的运动影响着我们生活的方方面面。我们的人际关系、家庭生活和事业都遵循循环，我们所属的机构、公司和组织的生活也是如此。甚至国家和帝国的兴衰也是循环的。
Many years ago,I was introduced to the idea of the'Sigmoid curve'and I have found it very useful in managing various areas of my life.The Sigmoid curve is a mathematical concept which has been widely used to model the natural life cycle of many things,from biological organisms,to schools and companies,marriages and careers.The curve is basically a stretched out S shape lying on its side,and can be thought of as having three sections,each of which corresponds to a phase of growth.
许多年前，我接触到了"S 形曲线"的概念，我发现它在管理我生活的各个方面非常有用。S 形曲线是一个数学概念，被广泛用来模拟许多事物的自然生命周期，从生物有机体，到学校和公司，到婚姻和职业。曲线基本上是一个伸展的 S形躺在它的一侧，可以认为有三个部分，每个部分对应一个阶段的增长。
The Learning Phase
First,at the bottom of the S there is a section which rises slowly,often dipping before starting to rise(depending on how the curve is drawn).This corresponds to an initial period of learning.When someone starts a business or begins a new career(for example),there is a period of hard work,where little seems to get accomplished.Perhaps for several years,those involved work to make contacts,learn the right skills,and develop a roadmap for success.
首先学习阶段，在 S的底部有一段上升缓慢，通常在开始上升之前会下降(这取决于曲线是如何绘制的)。这相当于学习的初始阶段。例如，当一个人开始创业或开始新的职业生涯时，会有一段艰苦工作的时期，而这段时期似乎没有什么成就。也许在几年的时间里，这些参与者都在努力建立联系，学习正确的技能，并为成功制定路线图。
This phase can be frustrating because so much effort is being expended with so little apparent result.You could compare it to sowing a crop and tending to the fields–for a long time,there is no sign of growth.But under the surface,something is happening.The seeds are developing,moving and growing.
这一阶段可能令人沮丧，因为付出了这么多努力却没有取得什么明显的成果。你可以把它比作播种庄稼和照料田地——很长一段时间，没有生长的迹象。但在表面之下，一些事情正在发生。这些种子正在发育、移动和生长。
Many businesses,careers and other ventures fail in this first phase because it is so hard to keep going with no tangible reward.We tend to be impatient and if we don't get some immediate reward for our efforts,we can move on to something else.But the only way to success is to push through this initial phase,to keep going and to know that this persistence will eventually and inevitably move on to phase two of the Sigmoid curve.
许多企业、职业和其他风险投资在第一阶段都会失败，因为如果没有实实在在的回报，很难坚持下去。我们往往会变得没有耐心，如果我们的努力没有立即得到回报，我们就会转向其他事情。但是通往成功的唯一途径就是推进这个初始阶段，继续前进，并且知道这种坚持最终将不可避免地进入第二阶段的S形曲线。
The Growth Phase
The second section is a sharply rising line in the elongated S shape.During this phase,business and careers move ahead quickly.Revenues increase,relationships mature,promotions occur easily,and organizations become much larger.This is where the crop which was sown is growing and coming to maturity,and every day brings perceptible growth and maturation.
生长阶段第二部分是一条延长的S形急剧上升线。在这个阶段，商业和职业发展迅速。收入增加，关系成熟，升职容易，组织变得更大。这是种下的庄稼生长成熟的地方，每天都有可见的生长和成熟。
The Decline Phase
The third phase of the curve is a decline,as the S shape starts to fall.The harvest has grown to maturity and starts to die.Morale and energy dip,revenues decline,the empire starts to crumble.On a personal level,your marriage might start to become jaded or you might wonder if you have chosen the right career or question how you are spending your time.
下降阶段曲线的第三阶段是下降，因为 s 形开始下降。收获已经成熟，开始枯萎。士气和精力下降，收入下降，帝国开始崩溃。在个人层面上，你的婚姻可能开始变得疲惫不堪，或者你可能会怀疑自己是否选择了正确的职业，或者质疑自己是如何度过时间的。
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve
Successful individuals and organizations are self-reflective and constantly monitor their own position on the Sigmoid curve.However,to be truly successful is to go even further–it is to jump off the current curve when it is nearing its peak and start on the bottom of another curve.This can be very hard to do,because just as you are reaping the rewards of your work and application,you find yourself at the bottom of another learning curve.This entails more pain,since growth always involves pain to some degree.It doesn't appear to make sense to change just as you are doing so well,reaping the rewards of your efforts.There is even,perhaps,a sense of loss–why throw away something which is mature and bringing a reward for something untested and new?
冲浪的S弯成功的个人和组织都是自我反省的，不断地监视自己在S弯曲上的位置。然而，真正的成功是更进一步——当当前曲线接近其峰值时跳出，并在另一条曲线的底部开始。这可能很难做到，因为正当你从工作和应用中获得回报时，你发现自己处于另一个学习曲线的底部。这需要更多的痛苦，因为成长在某种程度上总是伴随着痛苦。正如你做得那么好，收获了你努力的回报，改变似乎没有意义。甚至还有一种失落感——为什么要抛弃那些已经成熟的东西，而为那些未经检验的新东西带来回报呢？
However,the most successful among us know that the alternative is an inevitable decline through phase three of the curve.Successful people are regularly reinventing themselves,their careers and their relationships,rising to new challenges and pushing through painful new phases of growth.The junction between the first and second is not easy or clean.There is always a period of confusion,where the first curve is being abandoned and the second one embraced.This is a time of overlap,or ambiguity and of confusion.
然而，我们当中最成功的人都知道，另一种选择是通过曲线的第三阶段不可避免地走下坡路。成功人士经常重塑自我，重塑事业和人际关系，迎接新的挑战，经历痛苦的新成长阶段。第一和第二之间的连接既不容易也不干净。总会有一段混乱的时期，第一条曲线被抛弃，第二条曲线被拥抱。这是一个重叠、模糊和混乱的时代。
When can you tell that it's time to jump off the first curve?This is an impossible question to answer,but the best advice is that it must always be assumed that the first curve is nearing a peak and preparation for the new curve should be underway.It may be that the first curve is longer than was thought,in which case you can keep cruising along until you are indeed nearer to the peak.But preparing for the second curve too early is far better than waiting until it is too late and the decline has set in.If you reach phase three before jumping off,you won't have the energy and the enthusiasm to make the change so easily and there is less chance of success.
什么时候你才能知道是时候从第一个弯道跳下去了？这是一个不可能回答的问题，但最好的建议是，必须始终假定第一个曲线接近峰值，并为新曲线的准备应该正在进行。这可能是因为第一条曲线比我们想象的要长，在这种情况下，你可以继续巡航直到你确实接近峰值。但是，过早地准备第二个曲线，总比等到为时已晚、经济开始下滑时再做准备要好得多。如果你在开始之前就达到了第三阶段，你就不会有能量和热情如此轻易地做出改变，成功的机会也就更少了。
Riding the first curve while cultivating the second is always the best option.Clinging to the first and trying to prolong it is a pointless waste of energy.When all is well and you are at the top of your game,then you know it is time to plan your exit.
骑第一个曲线，而培养第二个始终是最好的选择。坚持第一点并试图延长它是毫无意义的能量浪费。当一切顺利，你处于游戏的顶峰，那么你就知道是时候计划退出了。
Michael
迈克尔
来源：https://www.dumblittleman.com/lesson-of-sigmoid-curve/
