2021年6月18日14:46:23柯推荐|三十年战争:第一次现代战争?已关闭评论 66519993字阅读66分38秒

May 23,201714 mins read



Sébastien Vrancx,The looting of Wommelgem(1625-1630)

塞巴斯蒂安·弗兰克斯,对 Wommelgem 的掠夺(1625-1630)

In 1618,the first in a series of conflicts broke out in Northern Europe,sparking three decades of violence,famine and disease that swept across the continent and decimated its population.What we now know as the Thirty Years'War lasted until 1648.The ensuing intellectual upheaval ushered in the beginnings of a new global order and laid the foundations of the law of war.But the episode has resonated down the centuries in other,less well-known ways.St Vincent de Paul's charitable endeavours marked the birth of humanitarian work as we know it today.And there are many parallels between this early protracted conflict and its present-day equivalents–in Yemen,South Sudan,Nigeria and Somalia,for example–where lasting political solutions have been difficult to achieve.The Thirty Years'War profoundly altered Europe's political landscape and social fabric.And it was this upheaval–not military conflict per se–that took the heaviest human toll.Almost four centuries on,the Thirty Years'War teaches us how protracted conflict can bring about famine and spell disaster for civilians.By Pascal Daudin,ICRC Senior Policy Advisor.

1618年,北欧爆发了一系列冲突中的第一场,引发了长达三十年的暴力、饥荒和疾病,席卷了整个欧洲大陆,大量人口死亡。我们现在所知的三十年战争一直持续到1648年。随之而来的思想动荡开启了一个新的全球秩序,并奠定了战争法的基础。但是这一事件以其他一些鲜为人知的方式引起了几个世纪以来的共鸣。圣文森特··保罗的慈善事业标志着我们今天所知的人道主义工作的诞生。早期的这场旷日持久的冲突与今天的冲突有许多相似之处,例如在也门、南苏丹、尼日利亚和索马里,持久的政治解决办法一直难以实现。三十年战争深刻地改变了欧洲的政治格局和社会结构。正是这种剧变——而不是军事冲突本身——造成了最严重的人员伤亡。差不多四个世纪过去了,三十年战争告诉我们,旷日持久的冲突会给平民带来饥荒和灾难。作者:Pascal Daudin,国际红十字委员会高级政策顾问。

Libera nos,Domine,a bello,a fame,a peste!


On 23 May 1618,a group of Bohemian Protestants led by Count Jindřich Matyáš Thurn-Valsassina threw two Catholic governors and their secretary out of a top-floor window of Prague Castle.This episode was the unlikely flash point that set off the Thirty Years'War.It sparked the Bohemian Revolt,which engulfed vast swathes of Europe,brought Spanish forces across the Alps to wage a campaign in the Netherlands and,rather improbably,led to the Swedish occupation of Alsace.

1618523日,jind ich matyá Thurn-Valsassina 伯爵领导的一群波希米亚新教徒将两位天主教总督及其秘书从布拉格城堡顶楼的窗户扔了出去。这一事件不太可能成为引发三十年战争的导火索。它引发了席卷欧洲大片地区的波希米亚起义,带领西班牙军队越过阿尔卑斯山脉,在荷兰发动了一场战役,令人难以置信的是,还导致了瑞典占领 Alsace

The 17th century was just as unpredictable,changeable and complex as the time we live in now.We can easily imagine the confusion these events caused in people's minds,and how they overturned the established religious and moral order.The war shook up contemporary thinking,prompting an intellectual upheaval that would ultimately bring about the Enlightenment.

People have long been fascinated by the Thirty Years'War.It is engrained in our collective memory.References to the conflict abound in literary works,from Hans Jakob Christoffel von Grimmelshausen's Simplicius Simplicissimus(1668),to Bertolt Brecht's Mother Courage and Her Children(1939)and Arturo Pérez-Reverte's The Sun Over Breda(1998).And it continues to resonate today amid a fresh wave of religious conflict that can at times seem at odds with conventional geopolitical wisdom.

It would be impossible to cover every twist and turn of the Thirty Years'War here.So instead,we will focus on the key developments that shaped this period in history.


The war began when Holy Roman Emperor Ferdinand II attempted to force Roman Catholicism on his subjects.But events gathered pace as a series of military campaigns and alliances dragged much of Europe into full-blown conflict.


It drew in major European powers of the time–the Holy Roman Empire(ruled by the Habsburg dynasty),the Catholic Church,the House of Savoy,and various German princes,as well as the national armies of Spain,Sweden,Denmark and France–alongside other forces with differing affinities.It ended in 1648 with the Peace of Westphalia–a treaty that,indirectly,laid down the principles of legal equality between States,non-intervention in internal affairs and dispute settlement.And in so doing,it paved the way for the global order that exists today.


Total war?


The Thirty Years'War was a complex,protracted conflict between many different parties–known in modern parlance as State and non-State actors.In practice,it was a series of separate yet connected international and internal conflicts waged by regular and irregular military forces,partisan groups,private armies and conscripts.Because it had a profound,lasting impact on Europe at the time–drawing in entire sections of contemporary society both on and off the battlefield–it might rightly be described as an example of total war.


New fighting forces emerged–versatile mercenary troops and armed marauders who carried out atrocities with utter impunity.And a new breed of war profiteers came to the fore–people like Albrecht von Wallenstein who sought to maintain hostilities for personal gain and looked to turn a profit from one campaign to fund the next.In some ways,war became an industry in its own right.Profiteers plundered resources at every opportunity to sustain their business model,leaving entire regions devastated with no chance of a quick recovery.


The timeline reveals a series of campaigns and temporary truces negotiated by the Catholic Church,interspersed with unusually violent battles and ambitious raids that took troops far from their military bases and deep behind enemy lines.The widespread chaos that ensued–sieges,pitched battles,occupations and brutal repression–had a profound effect across much of Europe,and in Germany in particular.


Peasants took up arms and revolted against heavy tax burdens,occupying forces and atrocities committed by mercenary troops and vagrant soldiers–with bloody consequences.Jews were persecuted and refugees massacred in big cities such as Frankfurt and Mainz.There were mass witch trials across southern Germany.Relentless military campaigns and troop mobilization saw population displacement on a vast scale.Typhus and plague ravaged soldiers and civilians alike.And all this came against the backdrop of the"Little Ice Age",which blighted agriculture and left food in short supply.


The cost of violence


Local authority and church records and isolated witness accounts are the only surviving evidence of how people were affected by the fighting.These sparse records suggest that direct violence against civilians was limited,but that pillaging,economic devastation and disease took a heavy human toll.Indeed,most commentators agree that many more people died from typhus and plague than from musket and cannon fire.


In 1620,the Holy Roman Empire lost around 200 men on the battlefield at White Mountain on the outskirts of Prague.By comparison,typhus–or"Hungarian fever"as it was known at the time–killed more than 14,000 imperial troops in the same year.Siege warfare also claimed countless lives,with death tolls reaching 100 people a day in Nuremberg and Breda.There were numerous plague outbreaks throughout the conflict,with cases peaking in Lorraine in 1636 during the so-called Swedish plague.As people moved in large numbers,they took disease with them and left decimated populations in their wake.


Some warlords took to funding their expeditions by bleeding entire populations dry,wreaking havoc on the economy in the process.Moreover,it was the first time that vast armies had been mobilized on this scale in Europe,and keeping so many troops well-fed far from base meant that food was at a premium.


Princes and noblemen footed the bill for troop recruitment.But fighting forces imposed local taxes,stripped assets and plundered defenceless communities to fund their own upkeep.Some armies ballooned in size,bringing in scores of civilians–chiefly family members and servants–to provide logistics support.In some cases,there were as many as four or five civilians for every combatant.


Regulating the art of war


The Thirty Years'War saw some of the most violent and bloodiest episodes in history.But it was more than just a frenzy of wanton atrocities.From the chaos of the battlefield emerged new rules–some driven by the very pragmatic need to conserve energy,others by religious dictate.


The human toll


The Thirty Years'War is thought to have claimed between 4 and 12 million lives.Around 450,000 people died in combat.Disease and famine took the lion's share of the death toll.Estimates suggest that 20%of Europe's people perished,with some areas seeing their population fall by as much as 60%.


These figures are remarkably high,even by 17th century standards.By comparison,the First World War–including the post-armistice outbreak of Spanish Flu–claimed 5%of Europe's population.The only comparable example was Soviet losses during the Second World War,which amounted to 12%of the USSR's population.The Thirty Years'War took an immense human toll,with significant,long-lasting impacts on marriage and birth rates.


Historical sources suggest,for example,that the Swedish army alone destroyed 2,200 castles,18,000 villages and 1,500 towns in Germany,wiping one-third of the country's towns from the map.The 1631 Sack of Magdeburg was an unusually brutal episode.It claimed 24,000 lives–the majority burned alive in what remained of their homes.The scale of the atrocities remains a matter of some debate and we cannot say with certainty that systematic massacres took place.But the evidence shows how fighting forces used terror to repress civilians and points to pillage as common practice.



Jacques Callot,The Great Miseries of War:The Hanging(1633)


Communities agreed to pay potential invaders a Brandschatzung(fire tax)or other levy as protection money against destruction and pillage.Meanwhile,peasants sought refuge in towns and cities because it had become too risky to continue farming their land.In 1634,for example,8,000 of the 15,000 people living in Ulm were refugees–similar,in relative terms,to the situation in Lebanon today.The price of wheat jumped six-fold in some places.By around 1648,one-third of Europe's farmland had been abandoned or left fallow.


What can we learn from the Thirty Years'War?


Historians broadly agree about what the Thirty Years'War teaches us today.Some claim that it was the first example of a total war,citing its far-reaching,profound and long-lasting effects on contemporary society.To all intents and purposes it was a modern war–a mix of low-intensity conflicts and conventional battles that bore little resemblance to medieval chivalry or the 18th-century"Lace Wars".


Some observers draw political parallels between the 17th-century wars of religion and other present-day conflicts around the world.The view,held in some quarters at least,that Westphalian sovereignty is disintegrating is fuelling creative analogies.A few years ago,for example,Zbigniew Brzezinski called the Middle East conflict a"thirty years'war".And when a young Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire in 2011,Richard Haas drew parallels with the Defenestration of Prague.

一些观察人士将17世纪的宗教战争与当今世界其它冲突进行了政治比较。至少在某些方面,威斯特伐利亚主权正在瓦解的观点正在推动创造性的类比。例如,几年前,兹比格涅夫布热津斯基称中东冲突为"三十年战争"2011年,当一个年轻的突尼斯街头小贩自焚时,理查德·哈斯(Richard Haas)把自己和布拉格爆炸案相提并论。

Some economists like Michael T.Klare claim that we could well see a return to the instability–and political and military conflict–of the mid-17th century as resources become scarcer,climate change takes its toll and national borders are redrawn.And strategists hold out hope that a Westphalia-style agreement could bring about lasting peace in some parts of the world.

一些经济学家如迈克尔·t·克莱尔(Michael t.Klare)声称,随着资源变得越来越稀缺,气候变化造成损失,国家边界被重新划分,我们很可能会看到17世纪中叶的不稳定局面——以及政治和军事冲突——卷土重来。战略家们希望一个威斯特伐利亚式的协议能够在世界的某些地区带来持久的和平。

Although this is an appealing political analogy,we live in a different world today.The global order,and the way the world is governed,have changed.It is always dangerous to compare two episodes so far apart in time.Similarity is no guarantee of comparability.Those who look to the past to explain modern-day events are routinely accused of having a hidden political agenda–of making things fit to suit their message.


Hybrid warfare's devastating toll


Perhaps the most important lesson we can learn from the Thirty Years'War lies elsewhere–in its resonance with present-day conflicts where lasting political solutions are found wanting.Documentary sources dating back more than 300 years reveal how far-reaching and long-lasting violence profoundly affected the social and political system of the day.And we cannot help but draw parallels with modern conflicts–in Afghanistan,the Democratic Republic of the Congo,Sudan and Somalia.


In his treatise On War,Carl von Clausewitz argued for localized,quick,decisive battles to redress the balance of power.Yet the Thirty Years'War is perhaps one of the earliest recorded examples of a protracted conflict–one where the conventional battle-and-armistice model does not apply.And in that sense,it bears many similarities with siege warfare in places such as Iraq and Syria,where both sides attempt to wear down the other but neither has the resources to win a decisive victory–with long-lasting consequences for civilians and their environment.


Economist Quintin Outram has examined the relationship between violence,hunger,death and disease during the Thirty Years'War,arguing that the enormous humanitarian toll cannot be attributed to armed conflict or economic hardship alone.


The military battles were the catalyst for what happened during the Thirty Years'War,but they were not the leading cause of death.The violence profoundly altered Europe's political landscape and social fabric,and these changes were what spelled disaster on a massive scale.This process did not happen quickly.But once the violence had become endemic and self-perpetuating,change was irresistible.By contrast,the English Civil War of 1642–1651 did not have an appreciable demographic impact because the violence never reached a level that triggered economic collapse and mass displacement.


Distinguishing between concomitance,correlation and causality is an ongoing struggle for conflict theorists.Experts still disagree,for example,whether there is a causal link between malnutrition and the spread of infectious and communicable diseases.But we know for certain that widespread famine often comes as an indirect–yet no less real–consequence of warfare.A 2010 study on the war in Darfur revealed that,beyond its direct effects,armed conflict was driving other phenomena(including population displacement and restrictions on movement).The study also found that these phenomena were harming the economy,making it harder for people to sell their goods,and severely disrupting the supply chain,leaving an already-weakened local system unable to absorb future climate shocks or other major events.


In his book on the 1983–1985 famine in Sudan,Alex de Waal observed how war and violence leave people unable to fight back against worsening economic conditions.A snowball effect ensues,whereby famine and food shortages cause the social order to collapse and people lose faith in the ability of institutions–both formal and informal–to protect them.Armed violence thus weakens people's resilience,as Mark Duffield showed when he explained how hybrid conflict gives rise to warlordism and economic predation,leaving scant hope for development.

亚历克斯·德瓦尔在他关于1983-1985年苏丹饥荒的书中指出,战争和暴力使人们无法对日益恶化的经济状况进行反击。随之而来的是滚雪球效应,饥荒和粮食短缺导致社会秩序崩溃,人们对正式和非正式机构保护他们的能力失去信心。因此,武装暴力削弱了人们的适应能力,正如马克·达菲尔德(Mark Duffield)在解释混合冲突如何导致军阀主义和经济掠夺时所表明的那样,给发展留下了很少的希望。

St Vincent de Paul:the birth of humanitarian work?


In 1640,Louis XIII ordered Vincent de Paul,later canonized,to send a dozen missionaries to the duchies of Bar and Lorraine to help people suffering at the hands of the invading Swedish and occupying French forces.Contemporary records recall,in harrowing detail,what life was like–people were starving in huge numbers and the Church even received reports of cannibalism.


Humanitarian work in protracted conflicts


The Thirty Years'War serves as a metaphor for the work that humanitarian organizations do in conflicts of all shapes and sizes.We have to address urgent needs.At the same time,we have to protect health and education systems,make sure people have a reliable supply of food,and keep the water running and the lights on.


Three centuries ago,people were vulnerable in many interconnected ways.The same remains true today.As humanitarians,it is our job to think about the short and the long term–to put out fires and to build fire-resistant homes.We must view conflicts not as separate events,but rather as processes that erode the very heart of our society.Every time a school is destroyed or closed down,children are deprived of an education and upbringing,leaving them at risk of joining armed groups and being unable to help rebuild their country.In this sense,war puts their future in jeopardy.


At the ICRC,we have long held this holistic view of conflict.We see emergency response and development as two sides of the same coin.We repair infrastructure,keep services running,deliver lasting improvements,nurture resilience and keep people out of poverty–all with the aim of building local capacities.We help keep the social order intact and,in so doing,avert potentially devastating and long-lasting consequences for the people we work with.Our aim,in everything we do,is to avoid the so-called perfect storm.


The Peace of Westphalia was a feat of political prowess.It brought the Thirty Years'War to a close.And it established a new nation-state system whose principles survive to this day.But it was also the product of a worn-out,emaciated Europe.Perhaps a more fitting name would be the Peace of Exhaustion.



Pascal Daudin is currently Senior Policy Advisor at the International Committee of the Red Cross(ICRC)in the Policy and Humanitarian Diplomacy Division.After a short career as free-lance journalist,he joined the ICRC in 1986 and has occupied various positions of line manager,protection expert,HR policies as well as humanitarian action specialist.During this term with the organization he was deployed in major conflict situations such as Pakistan,Afghanistan,Lebanon,Iraq,Iran,Central Asia,Caucasus,Saudi Arabia and the Balkans.The ideas expressed in this blog post are the author's own.

Pascal Daudin 目前是政策和人道主义外交司红十字国际委员会(红十字委员会)的高级政策顾问。在短暂的自由撰稿记者生涯之后,他于1986年加入红十字委员会,担任过各种职务,包括直线经理、保护专家、人力资源政策以及人道主义行动专家。在本组织任职期间,他曾被部署在巴基斯坦、阿富汗、黎巴嫩、伊拉克、伊朗、中亚、高加索、沙特阿拉伯和巴尔干等重大冲突局势中。这篇博客文章所表达的观点是作者自己的。



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