全球反乌托邦计划

2019年11月15日13:00:43全球反乌托邦计划已关闭评论 69025800字阅读86分0秒
摘要

通过将跨境贸易支付与国内货币流通分开,结合国家支持的加密货币的货币重置将使国家之间实行外汇管制。其目的将是获得对资金的更大控制权,并将其投资引向绿色项目。

Global policy planners intend to deliver replacements for both dollar hegemony and fossil fuels.Plans may appear uncoordinated and in their early stages,but these issues are becoming increasingly linked.

全球政策规划者打算提供美元霸权和化石燃料的替代品。计划可能看起来不协调,处于早期阶段,但这些问题正变得越来越相互关联。

A monetary reset incorporating state-sponsored cryptocurrencies will enable exchange controls to be introduced between nations by separating cross-border trade payments from domestic money circulation.The purpose will be to gain greater control over money and to direct its investment into green projects.

通过将跨境贸易支付与国内货币流通分开,结合国家支持的加密货币的货币重置将使国家之间实行外汇管制。其目的将是获得对资金的更大控制权,并将其投资引向绿色项目。

The OECD will build on current tax disclosures to make everyone's income and capital known to governments and therefore readily taxable,money destined to kick-start economic growth.Under the guidance of supranational organisations,governments will redirect investment into green technology.The objective,particularly for Europeans,is to neutralise Russia's increasing dominance of the global energy market by becoming carbon neutral by 2030.

经合组织将在当前税务披露的基础上,让各国政府了解每个人的收入和资本,从而随时征税,这些资金注定会推动经济增长。在超国家组织的指导下,各国政府将把投资转向绿色技术。其目标,尤其是对欧洲人而言,是到2030年实现碳中和,从而中和俄罗斯在全球能源市场日益增强的主导地位。

But perhaps as Robert Burns put it,"the best-laid schemes o'mice an'men gang aft agley".They are based on Keynesian fallacies,but cannot be ignored.

但是也许正如罗伯特·伯恩斯所说,"老鼠和人类最好的计划就是在船尾集合。"。它们是基于凯恩斯主义的谬论,但不容忽视。

Introduction

引言

There appear to be policy areas being driven by statist responses to events,encouraging global institutions to take on a coordinating role.It means deeper levels of centralised planning by unaccountable bureaucrats.Assuming their plans continue to gain credence,we could end up with a dystopian world where supranational bodies direct individual governments to conform.We are already on this road to perdition.The OECD has coordinated attempts by governments to restrict the freedom of their citizens to avoid taxes by forcing over a hundred jurisdictions to automatically supply information on the financial affairs of every citizen,irrespective of nationality and where they reside.

似乎有一些政策领域是由国家对事件的反应所推动的,鼓励全球机构发挥协调作用。这意味着不负责任的官僚会在更深层次上实行集中规划。假设他们的计划继续获得信任,我们可能最终会形成一个反乌托邦式的世界,超国家机构指示个别政府遵守这个世界。我们已经在这个毁灭之路上了。经合组织协调各国政府试图限制其公民逃税的自由,迫使100多个司法管辖区自动提供每个公民的财务信息,而不论其国籍和居住地。

By doing so,it has removed the necessity for governments to moderate their tax demands for fear that individuals will move their money out of reach.Information on private affairs are now exchanged automatically by banks,lawyers,financial advisors and accountants,without the individual's knowledge.As a result of the introduction of the OECD's common reporting standard,the organisation claims that over$85bn of additional tax revenue has been raised.The intention is to raise more,much more.

这样一来,政府就没有必要降低税收要求,因为政府担心个人会把钱挪到遥不可及的地方。现在,银行、律师、金融顾问和会计师会自动交换私人事务的信息,而个人并不知情。由于引入了经合组织的共同报告标准,该组织声称,已增加了逾850亿美元的税收。其目的是筹集更多的资金。

This has been the OECD's mission for some time,leading the way for other supranational organisations to carve out roles for themselves.Ones that come to mind are the IMF,which with a green agenda intends to prioritise investment funding for alternatives to fossil fuels both directly and indirectly through the World Bank and the regional development banks.Subsidiary roles are likely to be played by other UN divisions,useful for binding emerging market nations to the plans.

一段时间以来,这一直是经合组织的使命,为其它超国家组织开辟了自己的角色。我们想到的是国际货币基金组织,该组织有一个绿色议程,打算通过世界银行和区域开发银行直接或间接地优先投资于化石燃料替代品。联合国其它部门可能会扮演次要角色,这有助于将新兴市场国家与该计划联系起来。

Central banks acting in concert could have a new role of coordinating a monetary reset,which as we can deduce from Mark Carney's speech at Jackson Hole in August is already being discussed.We shall start by looking at the state of current monetary policies,their failure,and the drive to replace them with something else,before addressing the energy question.

各国央行一致行动可能会有一个协调货币重置的新角色,我们可以从马克卡尼(MarkCarney)8月份在杰克逊霍尔(JacksonHole)的演讲中推断,这个角色已经在讨论之中。在讨论能源问题之前,我们将首先审视当前货币政策的状况、它们的失败,以及用其他东西取代它们的动力。

The monetary problem

货币问题

There are two categories of folk who think everything to do with economics and money are not much to worry about;the disinterested public and the investment management community.Their livelihoods depend upon it.Another category,libertarians,Austrian economists,bitcoin fans,gold bugs and readers of and contributors to agglomerating sites such as ZeroHedge have views ranging from sceptical to downright catastrophic.Not known to many is another,the most important category,which is very worried indeed,and that is governments and their central banks.

有两类人认为所有与经济和金钱有关的事情都不需要太担心:无私的公众和投资管理团体。他们的生计依赖于此。另一类人,自由意志主义者、奥地利经济学家、比特币迷、黄金狂热分子以及诸如ZeroHedge这样的聚合网站的读者和投稿人,他们的观点从怀疑到彻头彻尾的灾难。许多人不知道的是另一个最重要的类别,这确实非常令人担忧,那就是政府和他们的中央银行。

These are the people quietly talking about a big-picture reset,those that know the post-Breton Woods fiat dollar system is no longer fit for purpose.They see escalating debt,interest rates failing to stimulate,and economic stagnation.They see a mismatch between international trade and the use of the dollar as a global settlement medium.They don't talk about it much,to do so would frighten us,the lowly ruminants.

这些人正在悄悄地谈论大局重置,那些知道后布林顿森林法定美元体系不再适合目的的人。他们看到了不断增长的债务,未能刺激的利率,以及经济停滞。他们认为,国际贸易与使用美元作为全球结算媒介之间存在不匹配。他们很少谈论这个话题,因为这样做会使我们这些低矮的反刍动物感到害怕。

I was ruminating on this recently after Max Keiser,of the Keiser Report on RT,asked me what I thought of Mark Carney's speech at Jackson Hole in August about a global monetary system to replace the dollar.I replied something about Carney about to retire,and presumably feeling slightly freer to express the concerns which he must share with his friends at the Bank for International Settlements,and various other monetary panjandrums who have observed the obvious:their cosy world of money-printing doesn't work,is unlikely to ever work,and must be reformed to give them more control.

最近,RT电视台凯瑟报告的马克斯·凯瑟问我对马克·卡尼8月份在杰克逊霍尔发表的关于全球货币体系取代美元的演讲有什么看法,我对此反复思考。我回复了一些关于Carney即将退休的事情,大概是因为觉得自己可以更自由地表达自己的担忧,而这些担忧必须与他在国际清算银行的朋友们以及其他各种货币界的权贵们分享,他们已经看到了显而易见的事实:他们温和的印钞世界行不通,不太可能行得通,必须改革,让他们拥有更多的控制。

Since then my thoughts have turned to the reset problem in a broader sense.The assumption must be that time is available for such an event to be planned,or at least pre-planned as an insurance policy against monetary failure.In either event,it is putting the cart before the horse,because when a credit crisis hits it invariably takes the authorities by surprise,and it looks increasingly close in time.The priority will not then be monetary evolution but economic and financial rescue.

从那时起,我的思想转向了更广泛意义上的重置问题。我们的假设必须是,有足够的时间来计划此类事件,或者至少是预先计划,作为防范货币失灵的一种保险政策。无论是哪种情况,它都是本末倒置,因为当信贷危机袭来时,它总是会让当局措手不及,而且它看起来越来越及时。届时,重点将不是货币改革,而是经济和金融纾困。

That point having been made,from the central bankers'point of view,what is to be done?The obvious answer is to rig the game by changing the rules.As Keynes said,when the facts change,he changed.That way,they think they might dispose of the failing system and replace it with an updated one that suits their policy purposes better.With a bit of luck,declining confidence in the old will be replaced by a new paradigm,something that will allow them all,politicians and central bankers,to claim success for saving the Western world from a potential monetary crisis.

从央行行长的角度来看,这一点已经提出,我们应该做些什么?显而易见的答案是通过改变规则来操纵游戏。正如凯恩斯所说,当事实发生变化时,他也会发生变化。这样,他们认为他们可以处理掉这个失败的系统,用一个更适合他们政策目的的更新系统来代替它。幸运的话,人们对旧的信心的下降将被一种新的模式所取代,这种模式将允许他们----政治家和中央银行家----宣称他们成功地将西方世界从潜在的货币危机中拯救出来。

The problem is they don't know how to do it,and they don't yet know what the new paradigm will be.There is no unity on the matter,because for the Fed and the US Government it involves an unacceptable loss of monetary and political power.The Chinese,in partnership with the Russians,want to do away with the dollar,while the Europeans are leading themselves to a socialist dystopia at odds with Trump's America,while being frightened of the Russian bear in the east.

问题是他们不知道如何去做,他们也不知道新的范式会是什么。在这个问题上没有统一意见,因为对美联储和美国政府来说,这意味着无法接受的货币和政治权力的丧失。XXx与俄罗斯结成伙伴关系,希望废除美元,而欧洲人却在带领自己走向一个与特朗普的美国格格不入的社会主义反乌托邦,同时又害怕东方的俄罗斯熊。

This is why influencers like Carney can only hypothesize about a new monetary set-up involving a reduced role for the dollar.Central banks are exploring cryptocurrencies.It is reported that seven out of ten of them are researching the possibilities.That won't save fiat currencies,but it might give central banks greater control over how their fiat currencies are used.Perhaps they think a state issued cryptocurrency can replace unadorned fiat.But then that raises two issues:if the existing fiat is failing it is likely a new state-sponsored cryptocurrency risks having a credibility problem from the outset and even if the public does accept it,its future issue will have to be strictly limited and the cycle of bank credit properly addressed.

这就是为什么像卡尼这样的影响者只能假设一种新的货币结构,其中包括美元的角色降低。各国央行正在探索加密货币。据报道,他们中十分之七的人正在研究这些可能性。这不会拯救法定货币,但可能让中央银行更好地控制其法定货币的使用。也许他们认为国家发行的加密货币可以取代朴素的法定货币。然而,这又引发了两个问题:如果现有的法定货币失败了,那么这可能是一种新的由政府支持的加密货币,从一开始就存在可信度问题,即使公众接受它,它未来的问题也必须受到严格限制,银行信贷周期也必须得到妥善解决。

But get it right and markets could be tamed,the logic goes.And somehow,a global cryptocurrency-based monetary system for international trade could replace the failing post-Bretton Woods monetary system reserved on the US dollar.For policy makers,it is becoming an urgent question,as a reading of Carney's Jackson Hole speech makes clear.[i]

但按照逻辑,如果做对了,市场就可以被驯服。不知何故,一个基于加密货币的全球国际贸易货币体系,可以取代失败的后布林顿森林(brettonWoods)货币体系。对于政策制定者来说,这正成为一个紧迫的问题,正如卡尼在杰克逊霍尔的演讲中所表明的那样。[i]

Specifically,in his speech Carney identified the existence of a global liquidity trap nullifying interest rate policy with three elements:a global savings glut tied up in dollars,a reduction in the scale of sustainable cross border flows and"fattening of the left-hand tail and increasing the downside skew of likely economic outcomes".[ii]This last element of gobbledegook appears to translate into an acknowledgement of the failure of current interest rate policy to stimulate economic recovery,which cannot be admitted in plain English.

具体而言,卡尼在他的演讲中指出,全球流动性陷阱的存在,使利率政策失效,这主要有三个因素:全球储蓄过剩与美元挂钩,可持续跨境资本流动规模下降,以及"增长左翼尾巴,加大可能出现的经济后果的负面影响"[ii]这最后一个令人费解的元素似乎意味着承认当前的利率政策未能刺激经济复苏,这是不能用简单的英语来承认的。

Carney's problem,besides the veiled admission of policy failure,is he ignores the fact that America needs increasing quantities of foreign dollar ownership to fund its escalating budget deficit,without which the dollar fails,and term interest rates will soar.If he and his cohort push policies intended to redeploy funds that are otherwise destined for the dollar and US Treasuries,they will face strong opposition from the US Treasury and being based on the dollar,the likely collapse of the whole fiat edifice.

卡尼的问题,除了隐晦地承认政策失败之外,是他忽视了这样一个事实,即美国需要越来越多的外国美元所有权来为其不断增长的预算赤字提供资金,没有外国美元就会失败,而长期利率将会飙升。如果他和他的同僚推行旨在重新配置资金的政策,而这些资金原本会流向美元和美国国债,那么他们将面临美国财政部的强烈反对,因为这些资金是以美元为基础的,整个法定货币大厦很可能会崩溃。

As for a reduction in cross border flows,that is a function of falling cross-border trade,not money.The reason cross-border trade has collapsed is because of the US-Chinese trade spat and its knock-on effects.Even if we pass on the gobbledegook of his third point,it is difficult for an independent observer not to take Carney's speech as indicative of desperation,ivory-tower economic error or both.

至于跨境流动的减少,这是跨境贸易减少的结果,而不是货币减少。跨境贸易之所以崩溃,是因为美中贸易争端及其连锁效应。即使我们不去理会他第三点的官样文章,一个独立的观察者也很难不把卡尼的讲话视为绝望、象牙塔式的经济错误,或者两者兼而有之。

Being based on Keynesian macroeconomic beliefs,we can take the evidence of economic error for granted,particularly since these beliefs have consistently failed to deliver any credible solution.It is the element of desperation we must explore further.If Carney feels a sense of desperation(and his speech reeks of it)then his fellow central bankers will as well.But instead of just abandoning failed policies,a bridge is required towards a new set of policies,a monetary reset.And it will almost certainly involve a greater suppression of the role of markets and an increase in state control over money and how it is used.

基于凯恩斯主义的宏观经济信念,我们可以把经济错误的证据视为理所当然,特别是因为这些信念一直未能提供任何可信的解决方案。这是我们必须进一步探索的绝望因素。如果卡尼感到绝望(他的讲话散发出绝望的气息),那么其他国家的央行行长也会感到绝望。但是,我们需要的不是放弃失败的政策,而是一座通往一套新政策的桥梁,即货币重置。而且几乎可以肯定,它将包括对市场作用的更大压制,以及国家对货币及其使用方式的更多控制。

For central bankers,there is a fear that the emergence of a competing private sector crypto-payments system,even linked to a basket of fiat currencies,will challenge national currencies.They would have to be pretty dopey not to see that Bitcoin in particular is educating the masses about the moral fraud behind the expansion of fiat money.The challenge will be to come up with a credible alternative,completely under the control of a few major central banks.But first,the purpose of a state-backed cryptocurrency must be settled.

对于央行官员来说,他们担心的是,一个竞争性的私营部门加密支付系统(甚至与一篮子法定货币挂钩)的出现,将对各国货币构成挑战。如果他们看不到比特币尤其是在教育大众关于法定货币扩张背后的道德欺诈,那他们就太傻了。挑战将是拿出一个可信的替代方案,完全由几个主要央行控制。但首先,必须明确国家支持的加密货币的目的。

For every nation other than America,evolution from the failing post-Breton Woods monetary system is about reducing the role of the dollar in trade settlement and freeing up capital needlessly tied up in dollars.Before the invention of cryptocurrencies,this would presumably have been achieved through a combination of an evolutionary process and increasing use of currency swaps to enhance liquidity,particularly in euros and renminbi,to replace the dominance of dollars in reserve balances.

对于除美国以外的所有国家而言,从失败的后布林顿森林(bretonWoods)货币体系演变而来的,是降低美元在贸易结算中的作用,释放与美元无必要捆绑在一起的资本。在加密货币发明之前,这可能是通过一个演进过程和增加利用货币互换来提高流动性(尤其是欧元和人民币),以取代美元在外汇储备余额中的主导地位来实现的。

The facilitation of foreign trade appears to be the role most likely to be destined for a state-issued cryptocurrency.Initial swap lines of state-sponsored cryptocurrencies would be proportionate to the trade between existing currency blocks.It could then be deployed for trade settlement,which would require it to be made available to commercial banks.We then have two currency versions:an existing fiat currency which circulates domestically and a separate blockchain based currency reserved for international use.With an onshore and offshore version,there can be two interest rates suitably set for their applications,so long as arbitrage routes are severely restricted,with the offshore version trading at a premium.

对外贸易便利化似乎是最有可能成为国家发行的加密货币的角色。国家支持的加密货币的初始互换额度将与现有货币区间的交易成比例。然后,它可以用于贸易结算,这将要求它提供给商业银行。然后我们有两种货币版本:一种是在国内流通的现有法定货币,另一种是为国际使用保留的单独的区块链货币。对于在岸和离岸版本,只要套利途径受到严格限制,而离岸版本的交易溢价,就可以为其申请设定适当的两种利率。

Old hands in Britain will be familiar with the basic concept,before Margaret Thatcher removed exchange controls.To monetary planners,there are several perceived benefits from such a scheme,particularly for the Eurozone.By separating trade settlement from domestic currency circulation,de facto currency controls are introduced,permitting access to the state crypto currency to non-domestic trading entities and banks,while denying its use in the domestic economy.Importantly,the expansion of bank credit would be retained for the domestic currency only,managed through a two-tier interest rate policy.

在撒切尔夫人取消外汇管制之前,英国的老手应该熟悉这个基本概念。对于货币政策制定者来说,这样的计划有几个明显的好处,尤其是对于欧元区。通过将贸易结算与本国货币流通分开,实行了事实上的货币管制,允许非本国贸易实体和银行使用国家加密货币,同时禁止其在本国经济中使用。重要的是,银行信贷的扩张将只保留在本国货币上,通过两级利率政策进行管理。

Any investment in foreign currencies would require the payment of the premium that applies on the crypto version of the currency.The prospects of an international run against a currency such as the euro would recede,as the existing liquidity for international trade is replaced by a centralised,highly managed,trade-related cryptocurrency.

对外币的任何投资都需要支付适用于加密版本货币的溢价。随着现有的国际贸易流动性被一种集中化、高度管理、与贸易相关的加密货币所取代,针对欧元等货币的国际挤兑的可能性将会降低。

For policy makers at the ECB it must be a tempting solution if it can be made to work.It would give them greater monetary control overall,and they could attempt to stimulate the Eurozone economy by deploying deeper negative rates without the fear of a failing exchange rate.

对欧洲央行的政策制定者来说,如果这个方案能够奏效,那么它肯定是一个诱人的解决方案。这将给他们更大的货币控制总体,他们可以试图刺激欧元区经济部署更深的负利率而不用担心失败的汇率。

From America's point of view these moves or anything like them will almost certainly be strongly resisted.They need foreigners to buy dollars to fund the budget deficit.And they are now experiencing the flaws of US isolationism and Trumpian trade policies,which are already leading to a contraction and potential reversal of foreign flows into US Treasuries.

从美国的角度来看,这些举措或类似举措几乎肯定会遭到强烈抵制。他们需要外国人购买美元来填补预算赤字。他们现在正经历着美国孤立主义和特朗普式贸易政策的缺陷,这些政策已经导致外资流入美国国债的收缩和潜在逆转。

China would be an interested observer of these developments.She has been planning to issue a cryptocurrency of her own,which could allow her to internationalise a crypto version of the renminbi more rapidly than it has managed with its existing renminbi.Russia has already ditched the dollar for geopolitical reasons and is trying to gain control over the energy market from a moribund OPEC.

XXx将是这些发展的感兴趣的观察者。她一直在计划发行一种自己的加密货币,这种货币可以让她以比现有人民币更快的速度实现加密版人民币的国际化。由于地缘政治原因,俄罗斯已经抛弃了美元,并试图从垂死的欧佩克手中夺取对能源市场的控制权。

To summarise,discontent with the post Bretton Woods monetary system and the disproportionate role of the dollar are likely to be the reasons why so many central banks are looking at cryptocurrency solutions.But as stated at earlier in this article,it assumes pre-planning,those best-laid schemes of mice and men,are not overtaken by events.

总之,对后布林顿森林货币体系的不满和美元不成比例的作用可能是如此多的中央银行正在寻求加密货币解决方案的原因。但正如本文前面所述,它假设事先计划,即人鼠之间最好的计划,不会被事态所取代。

Crypto and gold

加密和黄金

There can be little doubt that monetary policy is descending towards crisis,and a major bank failure could even occur in the next few months.If we find ourselves facing another Lehman moment,the priority will be to stabilise markets first,and then currencies as needed at a time of widespread negative interest rates and bond yields.

毫无疑问,货币政策正在走向危机,未来几个月甚至可能发生大规模银行破产。如果我们发现自己又面临一个雷曼时刻,我们的首要任务将是先稳定市场,然后在利率和债券收益率普遍为负的时候,根据需要稳定货币。

As insurance against such an event,the majority of central banks retain physical gold as part of their reserves.In Europe,Germany France and Italy hold significant quantities of gold which the monetary authorities at the ECB might in theory wish to deploy as the backing for a common cryptocurrency.But this is unlikely to be a preferred option,because central banks always retain their gold reserves(leasing aside)and only use them for monetary purposes as a last resort.

为了防范这种情况的发生,大多数央行都将实物黄金作为其储备的一部分。在欧洲,德国、法国和意大利持有大量黄金,欧洲央行货币当局理论上可能希望利用这些黄金作为共同加密货币的支持。但这不太可能成为首选方案,因为各国央行总是保留黄金储备(暂不考虑租赁),只将其用于货币目的,作为最后手段。

To re-introduce gold backing would deny all credibility to neo-classical macroeconomic theory,which relies on achieving an inflation target consistent with maximising employment.Given the need for a rapid expansion of global money supply as a policy response to the next credit crisis or to finance escalating government debt,the purchasing power of state-issued currencies will almost certainly decline while that of gold will rise.A currency credibly linked to gold would therefore also rise,assuming it acts as a proper gold substitute.A gold standard fixed at the current rate of$1500 would be seen as strongly deflationary if gold goes any higher.

重新引入黄金支持将使新古典主义宏观经济理论失去所有可信度,该理论依赖于实现与就业最大化相一致的通胀目标。鉴于全球需要迅速扩大货币供应,以此作为应对下一次信贷危机的政策举措,或为不断升级的政府债务融资,国家发行的货币的购买力几乎肯定会下降,而黄金的购买力将会上升。因此,假设一种货币作为合适的黄金替代品,与黄金挂钩的货币也会升值。如果金价继续走高,固定在当前1500美元水平的金本位制将被视为强烈的通货紧缩。

It is therefore probably true that no Western central bank would contemplate such a move in current economic conditions.If,in time,a credit and systemic crisis threatens the destruction of unbacked state currencies,and the event causes conventional thinking in the central banking community to discard inflationism,that would be a different matter.But that is far from the current situation.

因此,在当前经济形势下,没有一家西方央行会考虑采取这种举措,这或许是事实。如果一场信贷和系统性危机最终威胁到没有支撑的国家货币的毁灭,并且这一事件导致中央银行界的传统思维放弃通货膨胀主义,那就是另一回事了。但这与当前的形势相去甚远。

In any event,a far higher gold price would be required to fix fiat currencies sustainably to gold.Even China,which has been accumulating physical gold and encouraging its people to do so as well,is too hooked on monetary and credit expansion as the principal means of driving its economy to contemplate such a move for its own economy.However,the accumulation of gold reserves by many of China's Asian trading partners suggests some sort of gold backing for a cross-border settlement medium is likely instead of delivering physical gold,and this is where China's plans for a new state-sponsored cryptocurrency may eventually be heading.

无论如何,要想可持续地将法定货币与黄金挂钩,就需要一个高得多的金价。即使是一直在积累实物黄金并鼓励人民这样做的XXx,也过于依赖货币和信贷扩张,将其作为推动经济的主要手段,而不会考虑对本国经济采取这种举措。然而,XXx许多亚洲贸易伙伴积累的黄金储备表明,跨境结算媒介可能会得到某种形式的黄金支持,而不是实物黄金,而这正是XXx计划建立一种新的政府支持的加密货币的最终目标。

The conflict over energy

关于能源的冲突

As is the case with the global monetary system,global energy markets face enormous change with both the EU and supranational organisations,such as UNCTAD,the UN's conference on trade and development,pushing a policy of dropping carbon fuels for green alternatives.Furthermore,the original agreement whereby Saudi Arabia agreed to sell its oil for dollars,giving US banks control over monetary surpluses from all OPEC's oil sales,is no longer appropriate because the energy world has radically changed since that deal was struck in 1973.

正如全球货币体系的情况一样,全球能源市场面临着巨大变化,欧盟和联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)等超国家组织都在推动一项放弃碳燃料、转向绿色替代能源的政策。此外,沙特阿拉伯原先同意以美元换石油,让美国银行控制欧佩克所有石油销售产生的货币盈余的协议,已不再合适,因为自1973年达成协议以来,能源领域发生了根本性变化。

That agreement has been the central plank to the dollar's role as a reserve currency.Since 1973,the Soviet Union has collapsed and under President Putin,Russia has emerged as the largest exporter of oil and gas combined.Furthermore,as America's victories in the Middle East are proving to be only pyrrhic,Russia's influence is spreading across the region,forming alliances with Iran,Turkey and Syria.China is the region's most important energy customer,and with its silk road projects is also increasing its influence on the region.

这项协议一直是美元作为储备货币角色的核心内容。自1973年苏联解体以来,在普京总统的领导下,俄罗斯已经成为最大的石油和天然气出口国。此外,随着美国在中东的胜利被证明是得不偿失的,俄罗斯的影响力正在该地区扩散,与伊朗、土耳其和叙利亚结成联盟。XXx是该地区最重要的能源客户,其丝绸之路项目也在增加其对该地区的影响力。

America's response to these developments is lacking focus.It now has precious little real business in the region other than arms supplies,and under President Trump America has become isolationist.Furthermore,Trump wished to disengage militarily from the region,while the intelligence and military establishment wanted to increase their commitments.The gaps in US policy have been quietly exploited by Russia and China to great effect.

美国对这些事态发展的反应缺乏重点。现在,除了武器供应,XXx在该地区几乎没有什么实际业务,在特朗普总统的领导下,美国变成了孤立主义者。此外,特朗普希望从该地区撤出军事力量,而情报和军事机构则希望增加他们的承诺。俄罗斯和XXx已经悄悄地利用了美国政策中的差距,并取得了巨大成效。

The EU sees US leadership failing while the Russian beast to its east are getting stronger.The lessons of Russia wielding power over Ukraine by cutting off energy supplies have been noted:energy security is a long-term threat to the EU and Russia is on the verge of controlling Middle Eastern supplies as well.Furthermore,the lessons of China's economic successes through non-democratic government control will also have been noted as something for European statists to emulate.

欧盟(EU)认为,美国的领导地位正在下降,而其东面的俄罗斯野兽正变得更加强大。俄罗斯通过切断能源供应掌控乌克兰的教训已经被人们注意到:能源安全是对欧盟的长期威胁,俄罗斯也即将控制中东的能源供应。此外,XXx通过非民主政府控制取得经济成功的经验教训,也将被视为欧洲中央集权主义者可以效仿的东西。

The EU's response to the energy threat from Russia has been to adopt a radical green agenda without reservation.Despite about 98%of transport and logistics being delivered by diesel and gasoline,some member states in the EU are banning the sales of internal combustion engines as motive power from as soon as 2030.This accelerated path to zero emissions will require massive investment.Clearly this is being viewed as economically stimulative at a time of declining optimism over the general economic outlook.

欧盟对来自俄罗斯的能源威胁的回应是毫无保留地通过一项激进的绿色议程。尽管大约98%的运输和物流是由柴油和汽油交付的,欧盟的一些成员国从2030年起就禁止销售内燃机作为动力。这种加速实现零排放的途径将需要大量投资。显然,在人们对总体经济前景的乐观情绪不断下降之际,这被视为经济刺激措施。

These views are articulated in UNCTAD's Trade and Development Report 2019,Financing a Global Green Deal[iii].The authors argue that internationally coordinated action between governments pursuing reflationary monetary and fiscal policies,while restricting international capital flows,will generate the economic growth and capture the resources to finance the investment.The charts below are indicative of their thinking,and are copied from Page 56 of the report.

这些观点在贸发会议的《2019年贸易和发展报告:为全球绿色协议融资》中得到了阐述[iii]。两位作者认为,政府之间采取国际协调行动,追求通货再膨胀的货币和财政政策,同时限制国际资本流动,将促进经济增长,并获取资源为投资提供资金。下面的图表表明了他们的想法,并抄自报告的第56页。

全球反乌托邦计划

This is one of several examples in the report.Here,it is argued that a combination of higher minimum wages and increasingly progressive rates of taxation to redistribute wealth to lower earners leads to greater economic growth,in this case by boosting consumption of the masses at the expense of the few.It's pure Keynesianism.

这是报告中的几个例子之一。在这里,有人认为,更高的最低工资和日益增长的累进税率相结合,将财富重新分配给低收入者,导致更大的经济增长,在这种情况下,通过牺牲少数人的利益来促进大众的消费。这是纯粹的凯恩斯主义。

Similar arguments are made for increasing government spending on goods and services and increasing spending on welfare to further boost consumption.More extensive use of capital controls to restrict destabilising investment flows and to make them available for green investment instead are recommended(pp.125-129).Central banks are encouraged to direct quantitative easing in favour of green investment,and through regulation impose higher risk margins on bank exposure to fossil fuel related investments and loans(pp.153-156).

类似的理由还有:增加政府在商品和服务方面的支出,增加福利支出,以进一步促进消费。建议更广泛地利用资本管制来限制破坏稳定的投资流动,并将其用于绿色投资(125-129)。鼓励中央银行采取有利于绿色投资的定量宽松政策,并通过监管提高银行在矿物燃料相关投资和贷款方面的风险差额(153-156)

It amounts to an extension and escalation of failed inflationist policies,but the underlying point is it transfers free markets to statist management on a global scale not seen before.The ambition is for a few supranational organisations,not accountable to anybody,to act as an informal world government.It also accords fully with how central banks are likely to restructure their currencies

它相当于失败的通货膨胀政策的延伸和升级,但其根本意义在于,它将自由市场转移到前所未有的全球规模的中央集权管理。他们的目标是让一些超国家的组织,不对任何人负责,成为一个非正式的世界政府。这也完全符合各国央行可能重组本币的方式

Welcome to Dystopia.

欢迎来到反乌托邦。

Conclusion

总结

Failing monetary policies and the accelerated disposal of carbon-based in favour of carbon-neutral energy provide the foundations for a dystopian future.Together,they are excuses for yet greater inflationism and the rapid socialisation of national economies and private capital.

失败的货币政策和加速处置碳基能源以支持碳中和能源,为反乌托邦式的未来奠定了基础。这些因素加在一起,就成为了更严重的通货膨胀和国民经济和私人资本快速社会化的借口。

Clearly,a number of supranational bodies expect to coordinate these policy areas above the heads of individual governments.A monetary reset will replace a failing dollar-based system,and failing economies will be boosted by state-directed green investment.

显然,一些超国家机构希望在各国政府首脑之上协调这些政策领域。重新调整货币政策将取代失败的美元体系,失败的经济体将得到政府指导的绿色投资的提振。

Given that a significant cyclical credit and systemic crisis is overdue,its occurrence will have a major effect on how matters actually proceed.People who value individual freedom and privacy,those horrified by Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four and Hayek's The Road to Serfdom,could find themselves wishing for an even more radical outcome:the complete destruction of the fiat currency system and of the whole statist command-and-control apparatus.

鉴于一场重大的周期性信贷和系统性危机早就应该发生,这场危机的发生将对事态的实际进展产生重大影响。那些珍视个人自由和隐私的人,那些对奥威尔的一九八四和哈耶克的通往奴役之路感到恐惧的人,可能会发现自己希望看到一个更激进的结果:法定货币体系和整个中央集权的指挥控制机构被彻底摧毁。

[i] https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/the-growing-challenges-for-monetary-policy-speech-by-mark-carney.pdf

[ii] Ibid.Page 4

同上,第4

[iii] https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/tdr2019_en.pdf

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s)and do not reflect those of Goldmoney,unless expressly stated.The article is for general information purposes only and does not constitute either Goldmoney or the author(s)providing you with legal,financial,tax,investment,or accounting advice.You should not act or rely on any information contained in the article without first seeking independent professional advice.Care has been taken to ensure that the information in the article is reliable;however,Goldmoney does not represent that it is accurate,complete,up-to-date and/or to be taken as an indication of future results and it should not be relied upon as such.Goldmoney will not be held responsible for any claim,loss,damage,or inconvenience caused as a result of any information or opinion contained in this article and any action taken as a result of the opinions and information contained in this article is at your own risk.

本文所表达的观点及意见只代表作者本人,并不反映Goldmoney的观点及意见,除非另有明确说明。本文只供一般参考之用,并不构成向你提供法律、财务、税务、投资或会计建议的金钱或作者。你不应在没有事先征询独立专业意见的情况下,根据文章所载的任何资料行事。已经注意确保条款中的信息是可靠的;但是,Goldmoney并不代表它是准确的、完整的、最新的和/或被视为未来结果的指示,因此不应依赖它。对于因本文所载的任何信息或意见而引起的任何索赔、损失、损坏或不便,金钱公司将不承担任何责任,因本文所载的东西而采取的任何行动均由您自行承担风险。

来源:https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/plans-for-a-global-dystopia

zhunbeizhuanbian
  • 本文由 发表于 2019年11月15日13:00:43
  • 除非特殊声明,本站文章均来自网络,转载请务必保留本文链接