最后的警钟|政府如何抢劫他们的公民

2020年2月27日14:40:50最后的警钟|政府如何抢劫他们的公民已关闭评论 659 15580字阅读51分56秒
摘要

资产膨胀,资本市场,信贷扩张,购买力下降,宽松货币政策,对中央银行能力的信任,如何创造稳健的通货膨胀,恶性通货膨胀,通货膨胀破坏社会结构,通货膨胀是一种印刷现象,

通货膨胀破坏了社会结构

如何创造合理的通货膨胀

财富不能靠印刷机来创造

宽松货币政策

Inflation is a printing press phenomenon

通货膨胀是印刷机的一种现象

It's"Inflate or Die."There's no other way.And if there was ever any doubt about it,it would have been resolved on September 17,2019.That's when liquidity dried up in the"repo"markets—an important corner stone of the lending markets.On that day,the Fed looked the death square in the eyes.Suddenly,the normal lenders—many of them foreigners—were unwilling or unable to cover U.S.deficits.The Fed had to choose:It either way could inflate,or just let markets do their job.The rate to borrow overnight spiked to 10%,and the Fed came all the same to the rescue.Since then it's been pumping billions of dollars into the repo market.–The Federal Reserve is inflating the currency,pure and simple.Remember;War and Inflation have always been reliable ways to bring down an empire.Don't doubt if they will fail this time.

就是"不膨胀就死"没有别的办法了。如果有任何疑问的话,这个问题会在2019917日解决。那时,"回购"市场的流动性枯竭——回购市场是贷款市场的重要基石。就在那一天,美联储直面死亡的威胁。突然之间,正常的贷款机构——其中许多是外国人——不愿或无力偿还美国的赤字。美联储不得不做出选择:要么选择通胀,要么就让市场去做他们的工作。隔夜拆借利率飙升至10%,美联储也出手相救。从那时起,它已经向回购市场注入了数十亿美元。年的今天,美联储纯粹是在通货膨胀。请记住,战争和通货膨胀一直是推翻一个帝国的可靠手段。不要怀疑他们这次是否会失败。

Inflation,is an invisible,secret tax that not even 1%of common people understands.It is dangerous and most of the time a fatal disease.If not under control in time,it can destroy society.No government is willing to accept responsibility for causing inflation.They always find an excuse;such as greedy businessmen,selfish trade unions,spendthrift consumers.Although all these can temporarily produce higher prices for individual items;they cannot produce continuing inflation,for one very simple reason;None of the above alleged culprits possesses a printing press,to turn out pieces of paper called money;None can legally authorise a bookkeeper to make fraudulent entries on ledgers that are the equivalent of those pieces of worthless paper.

通货膨胀,是一种看不见的、秘密的税,甚至不到百分之一的老百姓能够理解。它是危险的,大多数时候是致命的疾病。如果不及时加以控制,它可能会毁灭社会。没有一个政府愿意承担引起通货膨胀的责任。他们总是找借口,比如贪婪的商人,自私的工会,挥霍无度的消费者。虽然所有这些都可以暂时提高单个项目的价格;他们不能产生持续的通货膨胀,只有一个非常简单的原因;上述所谓的罪魁祸首没有一个拥有印刷机,把纸张称为货币;没有一个可以合法地授权簿记员在分类账上作假账,相当于那些无价值的纸张。

Over time,the result will be an immensely lower standard of living,resulting from the declining purchasing power and increasing commodity prices.Real wages will be much lower,as employers will not readily increase wages to keep up with inflation.Under a paper system without any backing,the entire monetary system is controlled by the political class,which has the power to allocate capital or to deny it.This implies that the people heading the world's capital markets,rather than acting as capital allocators,have become mere speculative marionettes,whose strings are controlled by the well connected and the influential Elite.

随着时间的推移,由于购买力下降和商品价格上涨,结果将是生活水平大大降低。实际工资要低得多,因为雇主不会轻易地为了跟上通货膨胀而提高工资。在没有任何支持的纸币体系下,整个货币体系由政治阶层控制,政治阶层有权分配或否定资本。这意味着领导世界资本市场的人们,而不是作为资本分配者,已经变成了纯粹的投机木偶,他们的绳子被有良好关系和有影响力的精英控制着。

Inflation is a printing press phenomenon.The two important basic questions are:

通货膨胀是一种印刷现象。两个重要的基本问题是:

    Why do governments increase the quantity of money?

为什么政府要增加货币数量?

    Why do they produce inflation when they understand the potential harm?

当他们明白潜在的危害时,为什么他们会制造通货膨胀呢?

If the quantity of goods and services available for purchase–for short-term'output'–were to increase as rapidly as the quantity of money,prices would tend to be stable.Prices may fall gradually,as more goods became available,while people keep their wealth in the form of money.Inflation occurs when the quantity of money rises more rapidly than output and the more rapid the rise in the quantity of money,the greater the rate of inflation.

如果可供购买的商品和服务的数量——短期"产出"——与货币数量一样迅速增加,价格就会趋于稳定。随着更多商品的出现,物价可能会逐渐下跌,而人们则把财富以货币的形式保留下来。当货币数量的增长速度快于产出时,通货膨胀就发生了,货币数量的增长速度越快,通货膨胀率就越高。

Output is limited by the physical and human resources available,and by the improvement in knowledge and capacity to use them.At best the output can grow only fairly slowly.The same is the case,although always temporarily and for a brief period of time,for money backed by a commodity.Because,paper money has no limitation as does commodity-backed money.

产出受到现有物质和人力资源以及知识和使用这些资源的能力的提高的限制。充其量,产量只能相当缓慢地增长。同样的情况,虽然总是暂时和短暂的一段时间,货币支持的商品。因为,纸币和商品支持的货币一样没有限制。

In short;Inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon,produced by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.Excessive monetary growth produces inflation,caused by governments.–In general,inflation is for citizens worse than a financial crisis.

简而言之,通货膨胀主要是一种货币现象,由货币数量的快速增长而不是产出的快速增长所产生。过度的货币增长会导致政府引起的通货膨胀。一般来说,通货膨胀对公民的影响比金融危机还要严重。

Taxpayers'money is spent for nothing without reform or return in sight;causing ncrease in unemployment,as businesses go bankrupt.–Bankers that caused the 2008 financial crisis were bailed out with taxpayers'money,while their managers were left in charge who in turn were taking on even more risks with taxpayer's deposits in order to rake up equal larger bonuses.Eventually these schemes will result in a massive inflation,never witnessed before.The debt is structural;it's irresolvable,there is no way to repair this central bank economy.

纳税人的钱在没有改革或回报的情况下是白花的;随着企业破产,导致失业人数增加。-用纳税人的钱为引发2008年金融危机的银行家纾困,留下他们的经理人负责,而这些经理人反过来又用纳税人的存款承担更大的风险,以捞取同等数额的奖金。最终,这些计划将导致前所未有的大规模通货膨胀。债务是结构性的,无法解决,没有办法修复中央银行的经济。

Inflation is nothing more than legalised theft by your government;inflation is only two percent,is what the Statistics suggest.But these numbers don't show the truth.Today's real inflation rate is probably closer to 9%,maybe even higher.Who knows?All published inflation data are a blatant lie,as these numbers are made up to suit the government.Showing lower inflation in statistics looks better.The theft committed by governments is concealed.

通货膨胀只不过是政府合法化的盗窃行为;统计数据显示,通货膨胀率只有百分之二。但是这些数字并没有显示出真相。今天的实际通货膨胀率可能接近9%,甚至更高。谁知道呢?所有公布的通胀数据都是赤裸裸的谎言,因为这些数据是为了迎合政府而编造的。在统计数据中显示较低的通货膨胀率看起来更好。政府的盗窃行为被掩盖了。

Inflation damages the fabric of society

通货膨胀破坏了社会结构

When central banks print reserves far in excess of domestic savings,the result is inevitably inflation.The more they print,the more capital is available for institutions–central banks–to invest.This creates a massive asset inflation,in the price of assets,as central bankers buy assets–bonds,stocks,and real estate–to push economies upwards all around the world.–Instead of triggering an immediate currency flight,as seen in Argentina or Zimbabwe.This inflation has produced an investment-generated boom.The ongoing'financial boom'is a fallacy of historic portions.Nobody knows exactly when,but eventually the world will lose faith in central banks'ability to boost markets.

当中央银行印制的储备远远超过国内储蓄时,其结果必然是通货膨胀。它们印刷得越多,可供机构——中央银行——投资的资金就越多。随着中央银行家们购买资产——债券、股票和房地产——来推动世界各地的经济增长,这将导致资产价格的大规模通胀。-而不是像阿根廷或津巴布韦那样立即引发货币外逃。这种通货膨胀导致了投资带来的繁荣。正在进行的"金融繁荣"是历史部分的谬论。没有人知道确切的时间,但世界最终将对央行提振市场的能力失去信心。

But as usual there is the lack of a true desire to cure the addiction of free money,resulting in today's disease.In a sense people enjoy inflation.Although they would like to see the prices of goods they buy go down,or at least stop going up,they are more than happy to see the prices of the things they own or sell go up.

但像往常一样,人们缺乏治愈免费金钱成瘾的真正愿望,导致了今天的疾病。在某种意义上,人们享受通货膨胀。虽然他们希望看到他们购买的商品价格下降,或者至少停止上升,但是他们更乐于看到他们所拥有或者出售的商品价格上升。

The paper value of homes is rising.With a mortgage,the interest rate generally is below the rate of inflation.As a result of this,inflation in effect is paying off the mortgage interest payments as well the principal.This effect is an advantage to the home owner,as his equity in the house goes up rapidly.The flip side of the coin is that an interest rate below inflation results in a loss for savers.

房屋的纸面价值正在上升。对于抵押贷款,利率通常低于通货膨胀率。因此,通货膨胀实际上是偿还抵押贷款利息支付本金。这种效应对于房主是一种有利条件,因为他的房屋净值增长很快。另一方面,低于通货膨胀率的利率会导致储户的损失。

As inflation accelerates,rather sooner than later,it is causing so much damage to the fabric of society,creating too much injustice and suffering.

随着通胀加速(尽快而不是推迟),它对社会结构造成了如此巨大的破坏,制造了太多的不公正和痛苦。

How to create sound inflation

如何创造合理的通货膨胀

On the other hand;if they want to create inflation,there is no need for excessive money printing.They can create inflation instantly by raising the price of gold,which is the easiest way to create inflation.A higher dollar price for gold is practically the definition of inflation.The Fed would just declare the price of gold to be,say,$5,000 an ounce and make the price stick using the gold in Fort Knox–assuming it is still there?–Their gold-printing press would maintain a two-way market.

另一方面,如果他们想制造通货膨胀,就没有必要大量印钞票。他们可以通过提高黄金价格立即制造通货膨胀,这是制造通货膨胀的最简单的方法。更高的美元价格实际上就是通货膨胀的定义。美联储只会宣布黄金价格为,比如说,每盎司5000美元,并使用诺克斯堡(Fort Knox)的黄金来维持价格——假设黄金仍在那里?-他们的印金机将维持双向市场。

The Central Bank could sell gold when it hits$5,050 an ounce and buy gold when it hits$4,950 an ounce.That's a 1%band around the target price of$5,000 an ounce.The band and the use of physical gold would make the target price stick.

美联储可以在金价触及每盎司5050美元时抛售黄金,在金价触及每盎司4950美元时买入黄金。这是每盎司5000美元目标价的1%区间。波动幅度和实物黄金的使用将使目标价格保持不变。

Wealth cannot be created by a printing press

财富不能靠印刷机来创造

Inflation penalises wage earners,savers,and retirees to the benefit of asset owners.It benefits debtors at theexpense of creditors.There's no net increase in the nation's wealth.One group is merely taxed for the benefit of the other.This is sold as a benefit to the country by governments.They have to sell it to the people because without inflation they won't be able to pay their bills.

通货膨胀使工薪阶层、储蓄者和退休人员处于不利地位从而使资产所有者受益。它以牺牲债权人的利益为代价使债务人受益。这个国家的财富并没有净增长。一个群体只是为了另一个群体的利益而被征税。这是政府向国家兜售的一种福利。他们不得不把它卖给人民,因为如果没有通货膨胀,他们就无法支付账单。

Then again,wealth cannot be created by a printing press.This will cause price inflation,asset inflation,credit collapse–or a mixture of all these three.Everyone knows this.Nonetheless,our leaders pretend otherwise.

话又说回来,财富不能通过印刷机来创造。这将导致价格通胀、资产通胀、信贷崩溃——或三者兼而有之。大家都知道这一点。尽管如此,我们的领导人却不这么认为。

If credit is expanded in excess of savings,it historically always ends in a collapse.So there should be no surprise.When creditors begin to ask the critical question:Can these debts really be financed?Will we get our savings back?If credit has been expanded radically beyond savings,as is the case today in the developed world,the answer is always no.

如果信贷扩张超过储蓄,那么从历史上看,它总是以崩溃告终。所以没有什么好惊讶的。当债权人开始提出一个关键问题:这些债务真的能够得到融资吗?我们能拿回我们的存款吗?如果像今天发达国家那样,信贷已经大幅扩张到储蓄之外,那么答案永远是否定的。

It is factual that dramatic increases in the money supply eventually lead to inflation.But the key word here is"eventually."Sometimes it can take a while.The extent of the delay depends on general conditions,and a very important concept known as"monetary velocity."This is a measure of the number of times that the average unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period.At a low turnover rate,it takes longer for inflation to be observed,and at a very high turnover rate,it becomes hyperinflation,as is currently the case in e.g.Venezuela.

事实上,货币供应量的急剧增加最终会导致通货膨胀。但这里的关键词是"最终"有时候需要一段时间。延迟的程度取决于一般情况,以及一个非常重要的概念,即"货币流通速度"-这是衡量在一定时期内用货币平均单位购买商品和服务的次数。在周转率低的情况下,观察通货膨胀所需的时间较长,而在周转率很高的情况下,就会变成恶性通货膨胀,例如目前在委内瑞拉就是这种情况。

Easy-money policies

宽松货币政策

Easy-money policies–like interest rate cuts and liquidity injections from the most powerful central banks in the world–only throw rocket fuel on the Melt Up in the stock markets and rising real estate prices.Since September,the Fed has bought U.S.Treasury bills at a rate of$60 billion per month.Just another form of"quantitative easing"or money printing.In the same way continues the ECB in Europe.After they asked their governors to come up with new ideas to boost inflation,maintain price stability,and grow jobs,which of course is an impossibility!

宽松的货币政策——比如世界上最强大的央行降息和注入流动性——只会给股市和房地产价格的上涨提供"火箭燃料"。自去年9月以来,美联储以每月600亿美元的速度购买美国国债。只是另一种形式的"量化宽松"或印钞。在欧洲,欧洲央行也以同样的方式继续运作。在他们要求他们的州长提出促进通货膨胀、保持物价稳定和增加就业机会的新想法之后,这当然是不可能的!

And when it comes to China's easy-money policies of the past days,it turned out they're be doing the same already for a long time.This is what central banks do,they keep things going up and up,no matter what's happening in reality.

当谈到XXx过去几天的宽松货币政策时,事实证明他们已经很长时间在做同样的事情了。这就是中央银行所做的----无论现实中发生了什么,他们都会让事情越来越好。

Inflation is not purely from an increase in the money supply.Sufficient monetary velocity is required to spur a general and persistent increase in the price of goods and services.Without velocity,as is the case nowadays–if money doesn't move through the system–there is no reason for prices to rise.

通货膨胀不仅仅是货币供应量的增加。需要有足够的货币周转率来刺激商品和服务价格的普遍和持续上涨。没有周转率,就像现在这样——如果资金没有在系统中流动——价格就没有理由上涨。

The point is that it's not just about how many units are being printed.It's about where those units go and how fast they are moving through the system.The end game may indeed be accelerating monetary velocity.The cumulative effect on the rise in prices and spectacular loss of faith in the system will result in a decline in the desire for owning paper currencies,that will plummet further,eventually leading to hyperinflation.

问题的关键不仅仅在于印刷了多少单位。这是关于这些单位去哪里,他们有多快通过系统移动。最终的游戏可能确实是加速货币流通速度。价格上涨的累积效应和对金融体系的巨大信心丧失将导致持有纸币的欲望下降,这将进一步下降,最终导致恶性通货膨胀。

At the end of the day,the"easy money"central bank policy isn't going anywhere soon.

说到底,"宽松货币"的央行政策短期内不会取得任何进展。

Whether that's good or bad in the long term remains to be seen.But in the short term,low rates mean less competition for stocks–folks will keep putting money in the stock market for a chance at a higher yield.

从长远来看,这是好是坏还有待观察。但在短期内,低利率意味着对股票的竞争减少——人们将继续把钱投入股市,以获得更高收益的机会。

Printing more"money"just distorts the picture.It tricks people into thinking that they have more time and resources to work with.A secondary tool at the Fed's disposal is simply buying up assets,also known as"balance sheet expansion.–Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank may cut interest rates again in an effort to boost inflation–which remains under the Fed's 2%target.

印刷更多的"货币"只会扭曲事实。它欺骗人们认为他们有更多的时间和资源来工作。美联储可支配的第二个工具就是购买资产,也被称为"资产负债表扩张"。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示,美联储可能会再次降低利率,以提高通货膨胀率——目前通货膨胀率仍在美联储2%的目标之下。

But remember,inflation didn't die.It simply moved to asset markets,where it was warmly greeted and continues to be more than welcome.This was the Second Phase.

但是请记住,通货膨胀并没有消失。它只是转移到了资产市场,在那里受到了热烈欢迎,而且仍然非常受欢迎。这是第二阶段。

The Third Phase began on Sept.17,2019,when the Federal Reserve began printing money to cover U.S.deficits,with no pretence of an emergency.

第三阶段开始于2019917日,当时美联储开始印钞票以弥补美国的赤字,而没有任何紧急的借口。

Readers might find this discussion a little peculiar.Think about;the economy is almost 50-years into an Inflationaryera,but where's the inflation?Consumer prices are still rising at only about 2%per year.At least,that's what the central banks tell.But,economist John Williams,author of the Shadowstats website,calculates inflation using the same formula that the feds used in 1971—that was the period when the U.S.still had real money.He shows that today's inflation rate is 10%—5 times the official rate.

读者可能会觉得这种讨论有点奇怪。想想看,经济已经进入通货膨胀时代近50年了,但是通货膨胀在哪里呢?消费者价格仍在以每年2%左右的速度上涨。至少,央行是这么说的。但是,Shadowstats 网站的作者、经济学家约翰威廉姆斯(John Williams)使用的计算通胀的公式与联邦政府在1971年使用的公式相同,当时美国仍然拥有真正的货币。他指出,今天的通货膨胀率是官方通货膨胀率的10%5倍。

In the stock market,inflation is more obvious.The S&P 500 rose 29%last year.Some of that can be traced to higher tax profits.But the largest part—99%—was what they call on Wall Street"multiple expansion."Which is,price inflation.

在股票市场上,通货膨胀更加明显。标准普尔500指数去年上涨了29%。其中一些可以追溯到更高的税收利润。但其中最大的部分ーー99%ーー是他们在华尔街所说的"多重扩张"也就是说,通货膨胀。

Perhaps inflation needs some'explaining?–Adding fake new money is bound to short-change someone,usually the person who has the old money.For example;Retirees typically live on money they have earned decades before.When consumer prices rise,they lose purchasing power.

也许通货膨胀需要一些解释?——添加假新币注定会欺骗某人,通常是那些拥有旧钱的人。例如,退休人员通常靠他们几十年前挣的钱生活。当消费者价格上涨时,他们就失去了购买力。

But inflation works its mischief in devious and subtle ways.As is observed,over the last half a century,most of the new money has gone into asset prices.That's why the rich—who own the assets—have gotten so much richer.Retirees,too,if they were lucky enough to put their money in the stock market,have no reason to complain.But the bottom half of the population—with no financial assets—is 30%poorer than it was 20 years ago.And the typical male wage earner,who has only his time to sell,brings home less real money than he did 45 years ago.

但是通货膨胀以一种迂回而微妙的方式发挥着它的作用。正如人们所观察到的那样,在过去的半个世纪里,大多数新货币流入了资产价格。这就是为什么拥有这些资产的富人变得如此富有。退休人员也没有理由抱怨,如果他们足够幸运地把钱投入股市的话。但是底层的一半人口----没有金融资产----20年前穷了30%。而典型的男性工薪阶层,他们只有时间卖东西,赚回来的钱比45年前少了很多。

Inflation must rip off someone.Otherwise,why bother to inflate at all?Government controls the money.And the government produces no wealth.All it does is redistributewealth.Inflation is just another way of doing it.

通货膨胀一定会把某些人榨干。否则,为什么还要费心去充气呢?政府控制着资金。政府不创造任何财富。它所做的一切就是重新分配财富。通货膨胀只是另一种方式。

Investors might be reaching the late innings of this historic bull market,as the gains are accelerating.This is what happened in the late 1990s during the run-up to the dot-com peak.A brutal bust followed the dot-com bubble.Now,the Fed central bank is up to some of the same tricks again.Smart investors who followed the market higher–and got out at a good time–made a killing,which can happen again this time,as the Melt Up is about to hit a dramatic turn.And it could be the final shot for a lot of people to make the money they are looking for.

随着股市加速上涨,投资者可能正在接近这一历史性牛市的最后阶段。这就是上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫高峰期间发生的情况。在互联网泡沫之后,随之而来的是一场残酷的破产。现在,美联储又开始玩同样的把戏了。跟踪市场走高并在适当时机退出的聪明投资者大赚了一笔,这一次可能还会发生这种情况,因为"融化"即将迎来一个戏剧性的转折。对于很多人来说,这可能是他们赚钱的最后一击。

来源:http://finalwakeupcall.info/en/2020/02/26/how-government-rob-their-citizens/

  • 本文由 发表于 2020年2月27日14:40:50
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