Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person,leading to a severe pandemic.The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS,but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.
事 件201模拟一种新型动物传染病冠状病毒的爆发，这种病毒从蝙蝠传染给猪，最终在人与人之间有效传播，导致严重的流行病。病原体及其引起的疾病很大程度上是以 SARS 为模型的，但在社区环境中，症状轻微的人更容易传播。
The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil,quietly and slowly at first,but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings.When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income,densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America,the epidemic explodes.It is first exported by air travel to Portugal,the United States,and China and then to many other countries.Although at first some countries are able to control it,it continues to spread and be reintroduced,and eventually no country can maintain control.
这种疾病最初在巴西的养猪场悄无声息地、缓慢地开始传播，但随后开始在医疗机构中迅速蔓延。当它开始在南美一些特大城市的低收入、人口密集的社区中有效地在人与人之间传播时，疫情就会爆发。它首先通过航空旅行出口到葡萄牙、美国和中国，然后出口到许多其他国家。虽然一些国家一开始能够控制它，但它继续蔓延并被重新引入，最终没有一个国家能够保持控制。
There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year.There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.
第一年没有可能获得疫苗。有一种虚构的抗病毒药物可以帮助病人，但不能显著限制疾病的传播。
Since the whole human population is susceptible,during the initial months of the pandemic,the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially,doubling every week.And as the cases and deaths accumulate,the economic and societal consequences become increasingly severe.
由于在大流行的最初几个月，整个人类群体是易感的，因此病例的累积数量呈指数增长，每周翻一番。随着病例和死亡人数的增加，经济和社会后果变得越来越严重。
The scenario ends at the 18-month point,with 65 million deaths.The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people.The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90%of the global population has been exposed.From that point on,it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.
这种情况在18个月后结束，6500万人死亡。由于易感人群的减少，大流行开始减缓。大流行将以某种速度继续下去，直到有效疫苗出现，或者直到全球80-90%的人口接触到疫苗。从那时起，它很可能成为一种儿童地方病。
来源：http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html
