最后的警钟｜大萧条2.0

应用市场干预是一种扭曲

世界近代经济史

债务支出并不能增加财富

全球世贸组织贸易即将崩溃

全新的人民经济

The necessity of a Free Market for each individual economic actor

An economy is geared to produce for real demand.But for decades it has been misled by artificially low interest rates to produce for a level of demand that doesn't in reality exist.This deception can go on for a very long time.But,eventually,some form of adjustment must take place–usually a recession restores order by reducing both production and consumption.If it goes on for too long,or to a too great an extent,as it did in Germany in the late'20s,economic activity becomes disorganised,which actually started The Great Depression 1.0.

一个经济体是为真正的需求而生产的。但几十年来，中国一直被人为的低利率所误导，为了满足实际上并不存在的需求而生产。这种欺骗可以持续很长时间。但是，最终必须进行某种形式的调整——通常是衰退通过减少生产和消费来恢复秩序。如果它持续的时间太长，或者程度太大，就像20世纪20年代末的德国那样，经济活动就会变得无组织，这实际上导致了大萧条1.0。

The stimulus is working,they said.The problem is not that anyone believes this,but just that everyone believes in it.It is duped group thinking on a massive scale.Markets are not mathematical,nor mechanical;they're ethical.Their purpose is not to make people wealthy,but to make them wise.If they purely were mathematical,one would be able to anticipate price movements with computers and PhDs in math.Many have tried it,but so far as known none has ever really succeeded.

他们说，经济刺激计划正在发挥作用。问题不在于每个人都相信，而在于每个人都相信。大规模的群体思维被愚弄了。市场既不是数学的，也不是机械的;它们是道德的。他们的目的不是让人们变得富有，而是让他们变得聪明。如果它们纯粹是数学的，那么人们就可以通过计算机和数学博士来预测价格的变动。很多人都尝试过，但是到目前为止还没有一个真正成功。

It's not a mechanical system either.When prices go down,there are no levers that can be pulled,or injectors that can be activated.It's not that simple.Instead,markets are complex natural systems they can never really be controlled or predicted.Markets are always teaching or correcting something.To eventually find their natural equilibrium.Those are the moral lessons in the broadest sense.

它也不是一个机械系统。当价格下降时，没有杠杆可以拉动，或注射器可以被激活。事情没那么简单。相反，市场是一个复杂的自然系统，它们永远不可能真正被控制或预测。市场总是在教导或纠正某些事情。最终找到他们的自然平衡。这些就是最广义的道德教训。

The purpose of a bear market,like the 2007/8 is to correct the errors of the preceding boom called bull market of before Aug.2007.Most prominent among those errors is to think that money can be made by speculation.When this idea is successful for a while,good sense is lost.People bought dotcoms with no business plan,and houses not to be lived in.When people don't want anymore be involved with this matter,the market has changed which can take a long while.

像2007/8这样的熊市，其目的是纠正2007年8月之前被称为牛市的繁荣时期的错误。这些错误中最突出的就是认为投机可以赚钱。当这个想法成功一段时间后，良好的判断力就丧失了。人们在没有商业计划的情况下购买网络公司，购买不适合居住的房子。当人们不想再卷入这件事情的时候，市场已经发生了变化，这可能需要很长时间。

People of all nations around the world will discover that the solution will not be found in more government control over society,but through an increase in human liberty and freedom for the individual economic actor.

全世界所有国家的人民都会发现，解决问题的办法不是通过政府对社会的更多控制，而是通过增加人类自由和个人经济行为者的自由。

Applied Market Interventions are a Distortion

And,this is correct;all the interventions from central banks over the last half a century have made matters worse.If,Governments could have acted as they should have done,their duty is to protect their own citizens and keep their hands of the economy,which is regulated by the market.The moment intervention is applied a distortion is createdand opportunities are created for the Elite to steal taxpayer's money,it becomes a Casino where everyone tries his luck but in this event Banks'executives play not with their own money but that of clients and taxpayers.

而且，这是正确的;过去半个世纪中央银行的所有干预措施都让事情变得更糟。如果各国政府本可以采取它们应该采取的行动，那么它们的责任就是保护本国公民，保持它们对受市场管制的经济的控制。一旦实施干预，就会产生扭曲，为精英阶层窃取纳税人的钱创造机会，这就变成了一个赌场，每个人都在碰运气，但在这种情况下，银行的高管们不是在玩弄自己的钱，而是在玩弄客户和纳税人的钱。

All these interventions are distorting the market and create either deflation or inflation,which both are bad for the market economy.But what is observed is bad all over,bad inflation,and bad deflation.It is the result of monetary mismanagement.And it is going to send all the wrong signals and inevitably makes things worse.

所有这些干预都在扭曲市场，造成通货紧缩或通货膨胀，这两者都对市场经济不利。但是我们观察到的是全面的糟糕，糟糕的通货膨胀和糟糕的通货紧缩。这是货币管理不善的结果。这将发出所有错误的信号，不可避免地使事情变得更糟。

First,the deflation is bad because it is the result of a massive de-leveraging–paying down debt accompanied by a write-down of debt and assets.This technically is called a depression,or a major recession,or a'great contraction.'Call it what you like.It's a deflation in which prices fall.Followed by bad inflation that is caused by the central banks printing too much money.This inflation is very bad because it is an increase in the quantity of paper money,without an increase in real demand,or goods.

首先，通货紧缩是不好的，因为它是大规模去杠杆化偿还债务的结果，同时伴随着债务和资产的减记。这在技术上被称为萧条，或大衰退，或"大收缩"随你怎么说。这是一种价格下跌的通货紧缩。随之而来的恶性通货膨胀是由于中央银行印刷了太多的钞票。这种通货膨胀是非常糟糕的，因为它是纸币数量的增加，而没有实际需求或商品的增加。

Implicating higher government's debt and deficits making it impossible to pay these down honestly.Eventually,the central banks reach the point of no return where they are trapped as is the case today,without a way out.Then,another crisis will follow,either in the form of default,or hyperinflation,or both.

由于政府债务和赤字增加，要诚实地偿还这些债务是不可能的。最终，各国央行将无法回头，就像今天一样，它们陷入了困境，没有出路。然后，另一场危机将随之而来，要么是违约，要么是恶性通货膨胀，或者两者兼而有之。

Conclusion;any kind of monetary intervention in a market economy is bad.Neither the ideas of Friedman or Keynes are good,but the approach from Friedrich von Hayek expresses a thoughtful attitude towards monetary intervention."Interventions on a massive scale as happens at present are the worst enemy of the economy only temporarily intervention on a limited scale sometimes can be helpful".

结论:在市场经济中，任何形式的货币干预都是不好的。弗里德曼和凯恩斯的观点都不好，但弗里德里希·哈耶克的方法表达了对货币干预的深思熟虑的态度。"目前发生的大规模干预是经济最大的敌人，只有有限规模的暂时干预有时才会有所帮助"。

Recent Economic history the world went through

Since the end of WW2 the economy was in continuous expansion.At first,there was a healthy expansion.Consumers had built up savings during and after WWII.They were ready to get back to work in the consumer economy and spend their money.In that period the USA was world's leading lender,leading exporter,and leading in manufacturing,in short leading in everything.

自第二次世界大战结束以来，经济不断扩张。起初，这是一个健康的扩张。第二次世界大战期间和之后，消费者积累了大量的储蓄。他们已经准备好回到消费经济领域工作，花他们的钱。在那个时期，美国是世界上最大的贷款国，最大的出口国，最大的制造业，简而言之，在所有领域都处于领先地位。

In 1971,under the Nixon administration the gold backing for the US-dollar,and also world's reserve currency,was abolished.During the 1980s,the US turned from a net creditor into a net debtor to the rest of the world.By the 1990s,consumers were spending more than they earned and stopped saving at the turn of the century.Consumers became depending on the savings of the people in Japan and China that created a consumption economy with a flood of credit that on its turn culminated to living beyond their means.Consumers became addicted to accumulate more debt.As a result,the financial industry expanded in an incredible manner,finally culminating in the financial crisis of 2007/8.

1971年，在尼克松政府的领导下，美元的黄金支持和世界储备货币被废除。上世纪80年代，美国从一个净债权国变成了一个面向全球其它国家的净债务国。到了20世纪90年代，消费者的支出超过了他们的收入，并在世纪之交停止储蓄。消费者变得依赖于日本和中国人民的储蓄，这创造了一个带有信贷洪流的消费经济，而信贷洪流最终使他们入不敷出。消费者变得沉迷于积累更多的债务。结果，金融业以令人难以置信的方式扩张，最终在2007/8年度的金融危机中达到顶峰。

But nowadays it is different.The central banks have responded with zero interest rates,pumped over$20 trillion worth of bailouts and boondoggles in the market,with no avail being able to repeat the'old magic'of growth stimulus.Because,consumers do have too much of everything and don't have the extra cash available to pay for additional purchases.They have no other choice left than to cut back on everything.

但现在情况不同了。中央银行以零利率作为回应，在市场上投入了超过20万亿美元的紧急援助和无用功，却无法重复经济增长刺激的"古老魔法"。因为，消费者确实拥有太多的东西，没有多余的现金来支付额外的购买。他们别无选择，只能削减一切开支。

What would happen if you optimise every available credit source over the last year?Your rate of consumption had soared,you'd placed great demands on the economy and,eventually,your needs slowly decline.You're left with few desires,but a lot of debts.You'd stop buying anything for a long time,until you were able to repair your balance sheet.

如果你在过去的一年里优化了每一个可用的信贷来源，会发生什么？你们的消费率飙升，你们对经济提出了巨大的要求，最终，你们的需求缓慢下降。你只剩下很少的欲望，但是很多的债务。你会停止购买任何东西很长一段时间，直到你能够修复你的资产负债表。

A high rate of debt growth,by itself,is not necessarily a problem.If these funds are invested wisely,if they spur new economic opportunities,then,as a percentage of national debt,these debts could remain profitable.But that's not what has happened.

高债务增长率本身并不一定是个问题。如果这些资金得到明智的投资，如果它们能够刺激新的经济机会，那么，作为国家债务的一个百分比，这些债务可以保持盈利。但事实并非如此。

Instead,since the 1960s,each new dollar of debt has added less value to economic growth.This indicates the economy is suffering from systematic declining returns.Today,each new dollar/euro of debt adds about 0.54 to economic growth–assuming the economy is growing at 2.5%a year–which is not the case as we already know,because of much higher real inflations as officially is published.

相反，自20世纪60年代以来，每增加一美元的债务，对经济增长的增值就会减少。这表明中国经济正遭受系统性回报率下降的影响。如今，假设经济以每年2.5%的速度增长，每增加一美元/欧元的债务，经济增长就会增加0.54美元。但事实并非如我们所知，因为官方公布的实际通货膨胀率要高得多。

Debt based spending doesn't increase wealth

The vast majority of the debts added in the 1990s were used to fuel massive financial speculation in corporations,on houses,and home mortgages.As these financial assets begin to deflate,the debt remains,causing the debt to loom higher and higher as a percentage of assets."Total debt,as a percentage of GDP,has grown in the U.S.from around 150%in 1982 to nearly 300%today,"–in the EU it won't be much different.

上世纪90年代增加的绝大多数债务都被用来在企业、房地产和住房抵押贷款方面进行大规模的金融投机。随着这些金融资产开始紧缩，债务仍然存在，导致债务占资产的比例越来越高。"美国债务总额占 GDP 的百分比，已经从1982年的150%左右增长到今天的近300%，"——在欧盟，情况也不会有太大不同。

The whole idea of debt is to boost spending and corporate profits by increased demand.But,everyone knows you can't really become richer by spending.While consumptive spending is the least efficient and effective spending of all.So central bankers spend it themselves.And people get what they want:boondoggle wars,vote-buying giveaways,and bonuses for incompetent bankers.

债务的整个理念就是通过增加需求来刺激消费和企业利润。但是，每个人都知道你不可能通过消费变得更加富有。而消费支出是所有支出中效率最低、效果最差的。因此，央行行长们自己花掉了这些钱。人们得到了他们想要的东西:无用的争夺战，买选票的赠品，不称职的银行家的奖金。

The current economic boom is built on debt,and the debt-based economy is facilitated by the Federal Reserve's easy money policies.The massive amount of debt held by consumers,businesses,and especially government is the main reason the Fed feels compelled to maintain historically low interest rates.If rates were to increase to market levels,government interest payments would make the economic situation unstable.This would cause the government debt bubble to burst,leading to a major crisis.However,continuing on the current path of low interest rates will inevitably lead to a dollar crisis and a collapse of the Keynesian welfare-system.

当前的经济繁荣是建立在债务基础上的，美联储的宽松货币政策促进了以债务为基础的经济。消费者、企业、尤其是政府持有的巨额债务，是美联储感到不得不维持历史最低利率的主要原因。如果利率提高到市场水平，政府支付利息将使经济形势不稳定。这将导致政府债务泡沫破裂，引发重大危机。然而，继续保持目前的低利率将不可避免地导致美元危机和凯恩斯主义福利体系的崩溃。

Continuing to waste billions on wars abroad and failed programs at home while pretending that we can avoid a crisis via phony cuts and Fed-fuelled growth will only make the inevitable collapse more painful.The only way to avoid economic disaster is to cut spending and to audit and abolish the Federal Reserve and all Central Banks.

继续在海外战争和国内失败的项目上浪费数十亿美元，同时假装我们可以通过虚假的削减和美联储推动的增长来避免危机，只会让不可避免的崩溃更加痛苦。避免经济灾难的唯一办法是削减开支，审计和废除美联储和所有的中央银行。

Any attempt for revival by pumping additional money in the economy will only initiates inflation and worsen future economic outlook.Debt and speculation at this moment of time are characteristics of the past and don't apply anymore.

任何通过向经济注入更多资金来实现复苏的企图，都只会引发通货膨胀，恶化未来经济前景。债务和投机在这个时候是过去的特点，不再适用。

Currently we have entered in the reversal of the economic expanding cycle that is called contraction.(See attached graph).This implicates less consumption,less debt and more savings.And under such conditions the economy turns into depression.

目前我们已经进入了被称为收缩的经济扩张周期的逆转。(见附图)。这意味着更少的消费，更少的债务和更多的储蓄。在这种情况下，经济就会陷入萧条。

Don't expect a healthy new boom,the world is witnessing a sick echo of the old one.Governments,led by the attempt to re-inflate the bubble with guarantees and giveaways equalling to an entire year's annual output of the world's largest economy.Since every penny of this money is borrowed,it makes sense that every penny will have to be withdrawn from the world economy at some point.

不要期待一个健康的新繁荣，世界正在见证旧繁荣的病态回声。各国政府试图通过提供担保和免费赠品等于全球最大经济体全年的产出，从而重新吹大泡沫。由于这些资金中的每一分都是借来的，因此在某个时候，每一分都必须从世界经济中撤出是有道理的。

Global WTO-Trade about to collapse

Since the end of World War II international trade has been functioning on the US Dollar as the world's main reserve currency.The 2008 bankruptcy of the fiat US Dollar has resulted in unstable Global Markets,that are about to collapse.In the year 2008 the BRICS Alliance was formed–Brazil,Russia,India,China,South Africa–with the purpose of doing a Global Currency Reset–GCR.

自第二次世界大战结束以来，国际贸易一直以美元为主要储备货币。2008年法定美元的破产导致了全球市场的不稳定，即将崩溃。2008年，金砖国家联盟——巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非——成立，旨在实现全球货币重置 GCR。

Economists have made it clear that the only event that could save the Markets is a GCR which would place gold/asset-backed currencies of participating 209 nations at parity with each other.The GCR would naturally be accompanied by a Debt Jubilee that would zero out debt,much of which is contained in bank derivatives including mortgages.

经济学家已经明确表示，唯一能够拯救市场的事件是 GCR，它将使参与的209个国家的黄金/资产支持货币与其他国家的货币相等。GCR自然会伴随着一个债务禧年，这将零债务，其中大部分包含在银行衍生品，包括抵押贷款。

Great opposition has occurred to having the GCR implemented.Since it would necessitate taking US Taxpayer dollars away from the private Central Bankers,read the Rothschilds,Rockefellers,c.s.political elites in US Inc.Including the British Crown and Vatican–nowadays better known as the Deep State who presently own and run the Global Monetary System.Implicating;giving the power and stolen money back to The People.In other words,every country and the US would need to return to the powers engrained in their original Constitution,and restore the US-Republic.

GCR的实施遇到了巨大的阻力。既然有必要从私人央行手中拿走美国纳税人的钱，那就读读罗斯柴尔德家族(the Rothschilds)、洛克菲勒家族(Rockefellers)和c.s.的著作吧。美国的政治精英，包括英国王室和梵蒂冈——现在更广为人知的是"深国"(Deep State)，他们目前拥有并掌管着全球货币体系。换句话说，每个国家和美国都需要回归其原始宪法赋予的权力，恢复美国的共和制。

The brand new people's economy

This is the reason why President Trump and the Patriots are building a brand new economic system the people's economy to destroying the central bank economy the world is in since at least 1913.

这就是为什么至少从1913年开始，特朗普总统和爱国者们就在建立一个全新的经济体系，用人民的经济来摧毁世界上的中央银行经济。

The peoples'economy is not based on debt money created out of thin air with interest attached to be paid by the taxpayers with the purpose to enslaving everyone.This new economy is build on sound asset backed money without usury attached.

人民的经济不是建立在凭空创造的债务货币的基础上，这些债务货币附带利息，由纳税人支付，目的是奴役每一个人。这种新经济是建立在健全的资产支持的货币之上，不附带高利贷。

In the central bank economy;Money is pocketed by the Rothschild central banks to be accumulated in their secret accounts at the Bank od England and the Vatican Bank in Rome.Our new economical system is about creating new jobs,creating a stable currency with no interest attached,without a private central bank.And this is where the central banksters are afraid of.They will do everything to avoid this kind of people's economy.They don't want the people to see that they have committed fraud on a grand scale.In the new system,people are going to discover there is no inflation nor deflation,no loss of purchasing power,it will be an incredible economy for everyone.

在中央银行经济中，钱被罗斯柴尔德的中央银行收入囊中，存入他们在英格兰银行和罗马梵蒂冈银行的秘密账户中。我们新的经济体系是关于创造新的就业机会，创造一个没有利息附加的稳定货币，没有私人中央银行。这就是中央银行家们害怕的地方。他们会尽一切努力避免这种人民经济。他们不想让人们看到他们犯下了大规模的欺诈行为。在新的体系中，人们将会发现没有通货膨胀，没有通货紧缩，没有购买力的损失，这对每个人来说都是难以置信的经济。

Every day life is going to improve,only one breadwinner in the family will be sufficient to being able to support everything that is needed.People don't have to have credit cards to pay for their purchases.

生活每天都在改善，家庭中只有一个养家糊口的人才足以支撑所有需要的东西。人们不需要用信用卡来支付他们的消费。

The central banksters do not want the people to understand that they are the culprits who deliberately keep everyone poor by keeping them into slavery through the corrupt debt money system.By continually burdening them with new debt,instead of letting them live and enjoying 100%of their earned money.A basic privilege to which everyone is entitled.Their biggest fear is that this is now becoming known.–Nor do they want the USA and UK to conclude new bilateral trade agreements with other countries,apart from the WTO(World Trade Organisation),which is the major pillar of the Deep State funding and power.

中央银行家们不希望人们认识到他们是通过腐败的债务货币系统蓄意使每个人成为奴隶从而使他们贫穷的罪魁祸首。不断地让他们背负新的债务，而不是让他们生活，享受他们100%的收入。人人有权享有的基本特权。他们最大的担忧是，这一点现在已经为人所知。-他们也不希望美国和英国与其他国家缔结新的双边贸易协定，除了世界贸易组织(WTO)之外，后者是深层国家资金和权力的主要支柱。

Finally,a note about recent events in preparation for future developments;With the defeat of the Democrats over President Trump's removal procedure,it appears that considerable action is being launched against those who falsely accused him of a planned coup.Q-followers expect that sensitive government documents will now be declassified that will reveal shocking crimes and conspiracies.The exposed criminals are likely to respond with dangerous counterattacks,most of which will not be visible to the public.As Q recently wrote;"The silent war continues".

最后，关于为未来事态发展做准备的最近事件的说明;随着民主党人在特朗普总统的罢免程序上的失败，似乎正在对那些错误地指责他策划政变的人采取相当大的行动。追随者们预计，政府的敏感文件现在将被解密，揭露令人震惊的犯罪和阴谋。暴露出来的罪犯很可能以危险的反击作为回应，其中大多数都不会被公众看到。正如Q最近写道:"无声的战争仍在继续"。

来源：http://finalwakeupcall.info/en/2020/03/04/great-depression-2-0/